AK-Alaskan Dispatch News: Trump +5/+4 (Pre-PussyGate)

[heatcharger]

Link.

Trump - 36%
Clinton - 31%
Johnson - 18%
Stein - 6%

Trump - 46%
Clinton - 42%

Poll was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 2, which feels like an eon ago at this point.

[Gass3268]

Don't Democrats tend to over perform the polls in Alaska?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Johnson was at 18% before assaultgate, imagine where he could get now that it has happened? I don't think he can win AK, but getting 2nd would be a clear accomplishment.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

#BATTLEGROUNDALASKA

[ElectionsGuy]

Don't Democrats tend to over perform the polls in Alaska?

There's no evidence of it, there weren't any polls to my knowledge in 2012 and 2014 was spot on (and on this forum, the average is a tie for that senate race).

[politicallefty]

Don't Democrats tend to over perform the polls in Alaska?

There's no evidence of it, there weren't any polls to my knowledge in 2012 and 2014 was spot on (and on this forum, the average is a tie for that senate race).

I think any perceived overperformance by Democrats in Alaska has had more to do with longtime incumbents like Ted Stevens and Don Young having a strong, entrenched personal vote. Granted, it wasn't enough to save Stevens in 2008, but Democrats have yet to topple Young. I'm not aware of that happening at the presidential level. The state did flirt with Obama in 2008, but that was prior to Palin being on the ticket. (I wonder if he could have won it if Palin wasn't on the ticket.)

With this and Murkowski's internal and the latest news, I think the Clinton campaign should consider a small ad buy. Alaska has to be a very cheap state for TV ads.

[Xing]

It's worth mentioning that even though polls in 2014 had a strong Democratic bias on average, the polling average in the Alaska Senate race was almost spot on. Either way, polls showed Trump ahead by 9 earlier on, so Alaska might actually be getting close, especially after the past 48 hours.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, this should be one of best states for both Johnson and Stein.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Wow, you guys literally found the trashiest pollster from Alaska, congratulations!

[PresidentSamTilden]

Wow, you guys literally found the trashiest pollster from Alaska, congratulations!

This is the second poll in three days showing a close(er) race in AK, though

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/785118371486527489

Alaska (Trump +5.9) is slightly closer than Pennsylvania  (Clinton +6.5) in the 538 forecast right now.

[Mehmentum]

It's worth mentioning that even though polls in 2014 had a strong Democratic bias on average, the polling average in the Alaska Senate race was almost spot on. Either way, polls showed Trump ahead by 9 earlier on, so Alaska might actually be getting close, especially after the past 48 hours.

Begich's over-performance in 2014 was due to his stellar ground game.  He really went all out.  Its a shame that it was a wave election.

[ProudModerate2]

Wow.
I wonder if this state could be close on election day.

[Maxwell]

*gasp* toss-up alaska

[NOVA Green]

Wow, you guys literally found the trashiest pollster from Alaska, congratulations!

This is the second poll in three days showing a close(er) race in AK, though