Which counties in Utah will Trump lose?
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  Which counties in Utah will Trump lose?		 « previous next »
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Question: Which counties in Utah will Trump lose?
#1
Beaver		  
#2
Box Elder		  
#3
Cache		  
#4
Carbon		  
#5
Dagget		  
#6
Davis		  
#7
Duchesne		  
#8
Emery		  
#9
Garfield		  
#10
Grand		  
#11
Iron		  
#12
Juab		  
#13
Kane		  
#14
Milllard		  
#15
Morgan		  
#16
Piute		  
#17
Rich		  
#18
Salt Lake		  
#19
San Juan		  
#20
Sanpete		  
#21
Sevier		  
#22
Summit		  
#23
Tooele		  
#24
Uintah		  
#25
Utah		  
#26
Wasatch		  
#27
Washington		  
#28
Wayne		  
#29
Weber		  
#30
None		  
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Author Topic: Which counties in Utah will Trump lose?  (Read 1467 times)
AGA
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« on: October 09, 2016, 12:33:50 PM »
« edited: October 09, 2016, 12:37:28 PM by Chrome »
County map of Utah:


Here are the 2008 results, which are probably more relevant than the 2012 results:


Which counties in Utah will Trump lose? This counts Johnson winning counties as well as Clinton. I know that most of these counties were not even remotely competitive in 2012, but Trump's continuous collapse amongst Mormons should have us consider the possibilities.
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Doimper
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2016, 12:36:34 PM »
Salt Lake. I know, I'm being very bold.
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Rand
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2016, 12:37:46 PM »
Carbon, Grand, San Juan, Salt Lake, and Summit. I doubt there will be enough of a swing in Hillary's direction to turn the remaining >70% Republican counties.
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Spark
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2016, 12:38:48 PM »
Salt Lake & San Juan to Clinton & Carbon to Johnson.
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2016, 01:08:16 PM »
Box Elder, Carbon, Dagget, Davis, Emery, Grand, Salt Lake, San Juan, Summit, Tooele, and Weber at a bare minimum. I based that off the 1992 results. I doubt it will hold, but I decided to be bold.

Dagget was Johnson's best county in Utah in 2012, where he got 3.08% compared to the statewide average of 1.23%. That may be Johnson's best bet at winning a county in Utah.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2016, 01:31:53 PM »
Grand, Salt Lake and Summit. Carbon, however, is a coal county, and therefore not Clinton's territory.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2016, 02:21:58 PM »
Grand, Salt Lake, San Juan (first time not to go Republican since 1936), and Summit. Carbon is possible.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2016, 02:56:44 PM »
Salt Lake and Summit are definite losses. Carbon, Grand and San Juan are also gone for him.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2016, 04:04:25 PM »
Who are the five knuckleheads who think Clinton is going to lose Summit county?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2016, 04:06:00 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2016, 04:08:43 PM by AKCreative »
Summit and Salt Lake seem to be safe Clinton.    Grand and Carbon are much less likely though.

No real chance of Clinton winning San Juan.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2016, 05:24:55 PM »
SL, Summit, and maybe Grand.

As a bold guess, I'll go with Utah as well, given how Provo and BYU are when it comes to things like the Church coming out against trump.
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PeteB
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2016, 05:36:17 PM »
After the LDS un-endorsement, Trump is on track to lose every single county in UT. However he may still win some if there is a split in the vote between Clinton, Johnson and even McMullin, so it's difficult to predict with certainty.

I will however predict that either Clinton or Johnson take UT. Trump is done with LDS members.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2016, 09:27:47 PM »
All counties where WMR got less than 75% of the vote. Beyond that is all uphill task, out of reach for HRC.
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2016, 05:19:39 AM »
Quote from: PeteB on October 09, 2016, 05:36:17 PM
After the LDS un-endorsement, Trump is on track to lose every single county in UT. However he may still win some if there is a split in the vote between Clinton, Johnson and even McMullin, so it's difficult to predict with certainty.

I will however predict that either Clinton or Johnson take UT. Trump is done with LDS members.

I could see vote splitting allowing Trump to win a few counties, but overall, I'd lean towards your answer. With the LDS and most major GOP pols unendorsing Trump and showing that they're not spineless Vichy worms, the people of Utah will probably look to another candidate. Johnson is well positioned, but McMuffin could throw a wrench into things. I'm not sure that Hillary could break 35% statewide.
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