Washington University POTUS debate at 9pm ET **live commentary thread**

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anybody have any predictions for what Hillary's well-rehearsed knockout punch line is going to be if Trump brings up Bill and/or the rape case she worked on?

If she takes the high road and responds calmly and thoughtfully against Trump's attacks, and tries to keep the focus on the issues, the contrast will be devastating.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If SC and MT are going Clinton, TX will too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pre-debate odds on winning the election from https://electionbettingodds.com/, which combines input from Betfair and PredictIt:

Clinton 80.0% (EV: 358-180)
Trump 17.1%
Johnson 0.1%
Stein 0.1%

According to the site, these don't add up to 100% due to the chance of someone else winning (e.g. a replacement candidate if someone drops out).

This is useful to keep an eye on during the debate to see how perceptions are moving the market.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FTFY

Trump would do better than that even if he suffered a Mondale-esque defeat in the popular vote.

Yeah, I just don't see Clinton getting AR, ND, or NE statewide.  And she'd probably win KS before SD.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump seems very tired (understandably so).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump answers the questions about the tapes by talking about ISIS.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is acting like someone on drugs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Martha Raddatz has had enough of his sh**t for once! I like it.

So far these moderators are doing a much better job than those in the first two debates.  Of course, there's still plenty of time for this to get out of hand.

Ahh, here comes the Bill Clinton talk.  Who had 9:18 in the pool?

[GeorgiaModerate]

She's under his skin again, already. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

OMG.  He's threatening her with a special prosecutor if he wins.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this point, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has Clinton at 81.6% (+1.6 since before the debate), Trump at 15.9% (-1.2).

[GeorgiaModerate]

At a first glance Trump is doing better than last time.

He is, but that's still not great.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm anti-Trump, but he's KILLING it. Wow. He's pulling off a Reagan 1980.

I watched that debate when it happened, and no he isn't, by a long shot.  He's only looking better this time because he had such a low bar of expectations after his first performance. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

I do think Trump has been winning most of the debate.  It started out horrible for him.  The first 20 minutes were cringe worthy.  Everything else has been a Trump win in my opinion.

LMAO.

K?  Sorry I'm not towing the Clinton-line on here.  Seriously, I'm voting for Hillary, but the circle-jerk here is pathetic.

The man is unhinged.  You think that is winning? 

Yeah, for at least the last 45 mins.  Hillary has talked around every question, every issue.  Whatever though, I already know you're about to throw some personal attacks and f bombs my way!

Trump has been worse at not answering the questions than Clinton has.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Election odds and change from shortly before the debate:

Clinton 79.1% -0.9
Trump 18.4% +1.3

For comparison, I think she gained about 4 or 5 points during the first debate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems that Trump has stopped the hemorrhage with his performance tonight.

The post debate will show how effective he actually was.

He did drop a lot of controverial potentially damaging statements, which might come back and haunt him.

He had nothing to lose tonight and when you can't lose every performance seems like a win.

The flip side of this is that when you're behind and time is running out, then a draw is effectively a loss.  This was one of the few remaining opportunities for a significant game change, and that didn't happen (in either direction).

[GeorgiaModerate]

An interesting perspective just stated on CNN: Hillary Clinton won because she lost tonights debate.

If Trump had completely unhinged in this debate the Republicans just might have abandoned Trump and put up a new candidate that just might have had a chance of winning the election after all.

*thinking and scratching head*

That's an interesting thought.  Perhaps the Clinton camp is playing a very long game here and with a significant lead at present, they just wanted to hold the status quo for now, making it difficult for more Republicans to disassociate themselves from Trump.  Then they pull out the really devastating tapes in the final two weeks and drag down the down-ballot GOP candidates with Trump.

The Clinton camp is smart, but are they that smart?  I honestly can't decide.