Is Clinton's momentum stalling?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Fox News poll shows her up 8 points.

Most of the concern is with the EV, though. No one thinks Trump can win the PV.

even realclearpolitics shows Trump at a huge disadvantage.

I don't pay attention to rearclearpolitics...isn't that an average of PV polls though?

OK ... IF Hillary is winning the national PV by more than 3-4 then she's going to win the PV.

My post clearly says the concern is about the EV.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Well, it's all a little relative. Some of us were really hoping the floor would fall out from underneath Trump so much that the Dems might have a shot at winning the House. That's all.

She's obviously going to win. But if she can't win the House, there's basically no difference between an eight point lead and a three point one.

[Maxwell]

Fox News poll shows her up 8 points.

Most of the concern is with the EV, though. No one thinks Trump can win the PV.

even realclearpolitics shows Trump at a huge disadvantage.

I don't pay attention to rearclearpolitics...isn't that an average of PV polls though?

OK ... IF Hillary is winning the national PV by more than 3-4 then she's going to win the PV.

My post clearly says the concern is about the EV.

their state by state averages show her ahead in the states that matter

don't be such a panicy idiot god

[PaperKooper]

I hate when my candidate is only leading by 6 points. 

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Fox News poll shows her up 8 points.

Most of the concern is with the EV, though. No one thinks Trump can win the PV.

even realclearpolitics shows Trump at a huge disadvantage.

I don't pay attention to rearclearpolitics...isn't that an average of PV polls though?

OK ... IF Hillary is winning the national PV by more than 3-4 then she's going to win the PV.

My post clearly says the concern is about the EV.

their state by state averages show her ahead in the states that matter

don't be such a panicy idiot god

Excuse me sir, I have not panicked at all today, just stating why some are not 100% satisfied with a solid PV lead.

[Hammy]

I am worried, and will be worried until the possibility of a Trump presidency is in the past.

[NOVA Green]

No.... Momentum shifted after Debate #1 dramatically and then the following week was Trump's extremely poor reaction to "MachadoGate" that caused a dramatic collapse of Female/Latino/Independent support for Trump, followed shortly after with "MeowGate" where his support dropped further, and then a better than expected performance in the 2nd Presidential Debate where he grabbed back a couple points of Republicans from his low by going "Full Tilt" on Clinton.

We haven't seen any polls conducted yet since the new "Gropergate" revelations, and meanwhile "DNC Hackgate" isn't raising a ton of eyebrows or causing a collapse of her expansion of the base among Bernie voters/ suburban women/ Independents that aren't really tripping on the accusations that Clinton acted like a politician where she said one thing to Wall Street and another to Main Street.

At this point Clinton is holding steady on her national numbers, and we might well see further defections from Trump's numbers, that might never come back, if some staunch Republicans such as evangelical women decide to bail out for good from the Trump train.

We'll see in another week in both national and state numbers if the sexual harassment/assault accusations beyond just "locker room talk" cause Trump's floor to drop lower than it already is, but regardless I suspect we'll see another week of news cycles dominated by these stories and Trump's response, when structurally he is already down 5-8 points in the national numbers, along with an EV path to victory slipping and realistically needs to start improving by about 1.5%/week to make this race a tossup come November 8.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Fox News poll shows her up 8 points.

Most of the concern is with the EV, though. No one thinks Trump can win the PV.

even realclearpolitics shows Trump at a huge disadvantage.

I don't pay attention to rearclearpolitics...isn't that an average of PV polls though?

OK ... IF Hillary is winning the national PV by more than 3-4 then she's going to win the PV.

My post clearly says the concern is about the EV.

their state by state averages show her ahead in the states that matter

don't be such a panicy idiot god

Excuse me sir, I have not panicked at all today, just stating why some are not 100% satisfied with a solid PV lead.

Apologies, I meant EV. I don't see any realistic way that Clinton loses the EC if she wins the PV by anything more than 2 points or so.

[voter1993]

I hope her momentum is stalling my stomach will be turning when the crook gets into office, hope things turn around!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I hope her momentum is stalling my stomach will be turning when the crook gets into office, hope things turn around!

It's OK - she'll keep the actual crook out of the office. Never fear!

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Fox News Poll out today and she's 8+, beats Donald on every single issue and has nearly even favorables compared to Donald's -20.



What was the question again?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Well, it's all a little relative. Some of us were really hoping the floor would fall out from underneath Trump so much that the Dems might have a shot at winning the House. That's all.

She's obviously going to win. But if she can't win the House, there's basically no difference between an eight point lead and a three point one.

This.

[Person Man]

If she has 47% approvals, she wins. A sitting president can win with 43%.

[NHI]

Oh good lord...

Emerson and Rasmussen are pure trash.

The Marist poll had even party I.D.

Hillary is in great shape.

This.
HRC is on track to win the election.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Stalling? don't you mean the Donald? heard reports from NBC, that Trump has shut down his Virginia operation  and has pulled 740k in Florida advertising; yep I can see it Hillary's momentum is going downhill and at this rate she could win by 15+ or more! Utah looks bad for her too; I mean only 6% behind Trump, that is a disaster! I mean if she seized up all together, Utah could be in Hillary's column; that would be disastrous for her! not

[Figueira]

I think it's pretty obvious that Clinton will win; the question is whether she's hit her peak, or if she's going to eventually pull ahead in states like Georgia and Alaska.

[Enduro]

Her momentum is dependent on Trump falling.

[BaldEagle1991]

It's stalling because she isn't too popular to be ahead of Trump by over 15 points.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Her momentum is dependent on Trump falling.

Quite shocking that his fall could be stopping or reversing. Of course, this is a man that has recovered half a dozen times throughout the past year. Nov 9th will be a very good day when he finally loses.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Oh good lord...

Emerson and Rasmussen are pure trash.

The Marist poll had even party I.D.

Hillary is in great shape.

This.
HRC is on track to win the election.

Sadly, she is.

Her "momentum" is stalling because people are taking a breath and realizing that the Access Hollywood tapes was something that happened in 2005 and involved words, whereas her trashing of Bill's accusers involve activity designed to hurt people who stood in her way because of wrongs her husband have done.  People can figure this out, and they don't like it.  If Hillary were a decent human being, she'd be ahead by 15 points, hyper-partisanship or not.  She'd be pushing 400 EVs and then some, hyper-partisanship or not.  Trump is who he is, and I won't defend his crudeness.  But Hillary is devoid of virtue; she has intelligence, but not a functioning conscience.  The only good thing about her likely election is that, perhaps, there will be a decrease in the death rate from "natural causes".

[MasterJedi]

Oh good lord...

Emerson and Rasmussen are pure trash.

The Marist poll had even party I.D.

Hillary is in great shape.

This.
HRC is on track to win the election.

Sadly, she is.

Her "momentum" is stalling because people are taking a breath and realizing that the Access Hollywood tapes was something that happened in 2005 and involved words, whereas her trashing of Bill's accusers involve activity designed to hurt people who stood in her way because of wrongs her husband have done.  People can figure this out, and they don't like it.  If Hillary were a decent human being, she'd be ahead by 15 points, hyper-partisanship or not.  She'd be pushing 400 EVs and then some, hyper-partisanship or not.  Trump is who he is, and I won't defend his crudeness.  But Hillary is devoid of virtue; she has intelligence, but not a functioning conscience.  The only good thing about her likely election is that, perhaps, there will be a decrease in the death rate from "natural causes".

You're describing Trump to a T. There are likely a lot more tapes coming out which will increase the momentum again, can't blow the load all at once. All Trump has is "emails" while bragging about sexual assault and his supporters starting to call for the repeal of the 19th amendment.

[publicunofficial]

Does anyone remember Missouri Senate 2012? After Todd Akin's "legitimate rape" comment, it took weeks for his poll numbers to drop. And even then, the polls didn't capture how badly he was going to lose. I'm betting on the same thing for Trump.

[mark_twain]

The key idea to consider now is "long term momentum".

Less than 3 weeks ago (on the day of the first debate), Clinton had only a 1.5% margin over Trump in national polls and near-even position in state polls, to within 20 electoral votes of each other, according to the 538 forecast.

Today, Clinton leads with a 6% margin over Trump in national polls and 140-vote lead over Trump on the electoral map, in the 538 forecast.

A lot of the time, buzz-generating events like the debates or news incidents create a temporary bounce in the polls that reverts to the mean, like many of the forecasters say.

Here, we see Clinton building a solid, clean lead over Trump in both national polls and battleground state polls. It is very encouraging to the Clinton campaign and supporters, to say the very least...

 

[ursulahx]

[Nov 9th will be a very good day when he finally loses.

This assumes that election day is his last stand...