Clinton +4 in PA (Susquehanna Poll)

[voter1993]

44% Clinton
40% Trump
4% Johnson
2% Stein

Last poll had Clinton up 9 in 4 way and up 10 in 2 way back in late July/Early Aug.
Poll was taken October 4-9th.


Party Breakdown:

38% Democrat
35% Republican
27% Independent

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Trash

[dspNY]

I saw this poll...the demographics are way off

86% white
8% African-American

And Clinton still leads by 4 with that 1988 electorate. The poll makes sense when that is taken into account

[ApatheticAustrian]

a pro-republican and pro-white sample which still hates trump more than hillary. ^^

[HillOfANight]

http://abc27.com/2016/10/10/abc27-poll-clinton-trump-in-tight-race-for-pennsylvania/
https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/toplines-statewideabc27-oct16.pdf
These are the links.

[Dr. Arch]

I saw this poll...the demographics are way off

86% white
8% African-American

And Clinton still leads by 4 with that 1988 electorate. The poll makes sense when that is taken into account

Holy moly.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Great, now the "Trump can win PA" brigade will be back in full force.

[Ebsy]

Who told them that they could poll?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Great, now the "Trump can win PA" brigade will be back in full force.

Yes. But they should be ignored.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also, Toomey is up by 4 in this poll.  That's what I'm more concerned with at this point.

[Classic Conservative]

Unskewing much

[Devout Centrist]

They had Obama and Romney tied in 2012.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

They had Obama and Romney tied in 2012.

Actually, their last poll had Romney up 49-45. Definitely trash.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Unskewing much

You need new, reality-based material. Do we need to go through what 'unskewing' is versus legitimate questions about polling methodologies?

[Mallow]

I saw this poll...the demographics are way off

86% white
8% African-American

And Clinton still leads by 4 with that 1988 electorate. The poll makes sense when that is taken into account

Again, don't they correct for demographics in the topline numbers?

[Gass3268]

They had Obama and Romney tied in 2012.

Actually, their last poll had Romney up 49-45. Definitely trash.

Lol, joke poll

[NOVA Green]

Another junk Uni poll...

Not sure if any of y'all have ever lived in the world of academia, BUT regardless of Party ID there is a lot of junk coming from the hands of undergrads that have no idea how to conduct a professional poll, where you have profs just building their street cred to publish something in an academic journal.

Don't give any cred to Uni polls when it comes to October in a GE, and I can smell fish even if it comes from the poisoned rivers west of Pittsburgh towards the headwaters of the Ohio River, with obvious contamination downstream.

[voter1993]

What are we expecting as the white % in PA?

[dspNY]

What are we expecting as the white % in PA?

80-81%

[ApatheticAustrian]

compared to other polls which show different results thie poll is changed in some demographic areas.....it is possible to argue that this poll is closer to the demographic reality (i would politely disagree).... but just taking a poll at face value doesn't make much sense at all.

[Fusionmunster]

What are we expecting as the white % in PA?

The exit polls had white turnout in PA at 78% in 2012.

[chrisras]

Blacks aren't going to turnout nearly as much for Hillary as they did for Obama

[Fusionmunster]

Blacks aren't going to turnout nearly as much for Hillary as they did for Obama

Sure, but turnout isnt going to drop by half either.

[Flake]

Unskewing much

Nah unskewing would be more of someone adding 15 points to a candidate's total via a "secret sauce" method. People on this thread so far have been questioning the (poor) demographics/methodology of the poll.

[ApatheticAustrian]

unskewing would be btw to make new numbers out of this numbers....which would change the baseline.

explaining that this poll is off in one direction...while the +12 poll is off in another direction....seems more like it.