How late will I have to stay up to know the next president?
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  How late will I have to stay up to know the next president?
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Question: How late (EST) will I have to stay up to know the next president?
#1
We'll know before polls even close.
 
#2
7:00 PM - Shortly after GA and IN polls close
 
#3
7:30-8:00 PM - Shortly after NC and OH polls close
 
#4
8-9 PM - Enough time for a critical state (NC/OH/FL) to be called for Clinton
 
#5
9-10 PM - Some time after Colorado polls close
 
#6
After 10 PM - freiwal breach negative confirmation won't arrive until late
 
#7
Whenever PA is called for Trump
 
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Total Voters: 81

Author Topic: How late will I have to stay up to know the next president?  (Read 1235 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
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« on: October 11, 2016, 01:50:12 AM »

Not when Clinton will get to 270, but when it becomes mathematically impossible for Trump to win given any sane model.  e.g., if Ohio is called for Clinton, it's over.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2016, 01:52:03 AM »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 01:53:48 AM by Ronnie »

We'll know when we see weak numbers for Trump in early Indiana returns.

But we really know right now: Hillary Clinton will be our next president.  My attention has shifted to congressional races.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2016, 01:53:04 AM »

We'll know when we see weak numbers for Trump in early Indiana returns.

Will the press release those before the polls actually close?
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2016, 01:53:50 AM »

I guess wait for the first returns to make sure there hasn't been a massive polling error.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2016, 02:13:08 AM »

does anyone know how exit polls incorporate early votes? I'm curious, when thinking back to 2012, the conventional wisdom was that Obama won the early vote but Romney won the "day of" voting - however, how do exits estimate the early vote? What I imagine happening this year is an even greater exaggeration between early votes for Clinton and same day votes for Trump. From what Robby Mook talked about the other day, the Clinton camp should know a week or two in advance if they have NC and FL won before election day.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2016, 02:17:03 AM »

If you're talking about mathematical elimination based on state calls, probably some time in the 9-10 PM hour, by which point at least a couple of swing states should be called.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2016, 04:07:14 AM »

If Ohio and Florida are called early, you could know in a couple of hours
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2016, 04:25:42 AM »

If GA or IN can't be immediately (or reasonably quickly) called for Trump and/or VA/PA are called for Clinton at close or soon afterwards, I think you'll have a good idea how the night is going.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2016, 04:32:13 AM »

5:32 am on October 11.
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Baki
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2016, 04:35:21 AM »

If PA and NC are called for Clinton at or before 9.30 p.m. you'll know.
If Georgia is not called for Trump before 8.30 p.m. you'll know.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2016, 05:26:32 AM »

If Clinton gets to 192 EVs before 11pm, it's over.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2016, 05:28:19 AM »

If Georgia is within 10 points in the first 40 or so percent of returns, you will know.
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Rand
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2016, 05:41:18 AM »

Early returns from Indiana and Kentucky between 6 and 7 PM EST will indicate whether Trump is under-performing in Republican counties. Early returns from Florida between 7 and 8 PM EST will also be telling. I imagine states like Pennsylvania and Virginia where she is leading will not be called immediately just in case there is some hidden Trump vote, but we should know before 9 PM EST how the two candidates are performing in relation to polling and it will be clear who is going to win unless the race has drastically toghtened.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2016, 06:48:11 AM »

Early returns from Indiana and Kentucky between 6 and 7 PM EST will indicate whether Trump is under-performing in Republican counties. Early returns from Florida between 7 and 8 PM EST will also be telling. I imagine states like Pennsylvania and Virginia where she is leading will not be called immediately just in case there is some hidden Trump vote, but we should know before 9 PM EST how the two candidates are performing in relation to polling and it will be clear who is going to win unless the race has drastically toghtened.

Problem with VA is that NoVa, especially Fairfax, is really slow to count. It is likely that Trump will have a lead in the state early on in the night.
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angus
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2016, 07:43:47 AM »

I voted after 10pm, thinking that this will be 10pm Eastern Standard Time.  At 10 pm here, it will be 9pm in the Central Time Zone, and polls will be closing by then.  Given that we can predict California, the result won't hinge on the states of the intermontaine west vote.  That said, news outlets may be reluctant to call the election until 9pm Pacific Standard Time, which will be midnight here, for fear of being seen as supporting one candidate over another.  But you will actually know the winner by a little after 10pm EST, maybe even by a little after 9pm EST if certain states such as North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia all are won by Clinton.


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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2016, 08:07:53 AM »

If all goes well 11pm when CA, OR and WA put Clinton over 270
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2016, 08:11:06 AM »

We'll know when we see weak numbers for Trump in early Indiana returns.

Will the press release those before the polls actually close?

The Eastern timezone portions of IN and KY close at 6pm ET, and the press starts reporting on those results almost right away.  However, they won't release the exit poll toplines for those states until the rest of the polls in those states close at 7pm ET.

does anyone know how exit polls incorporate early votes? I'm curious, when thinking back to 2012, the conventional wisdom was that Obama won the early vote but Romney won the "day of" voting - however, how do exits estimate the early vote?

Several years ago, the exit polling consortium started doing pre-election polling in states where the early vote is expected to be significant.  They call people up and ask them if they already voted, and then merge those poll #s with the exit polling on election day.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2016, 08:14:51 AM »

Early returns from Indiana and Kentucky between 6 and 7 PM EST will indicate whether Trump is under-performing in Republican counties. Early returns from Florida between 7 and 8 PM EST will also be telling. I imagine states like Pennsylvania and Virginia where she is leading will not be called immediately just in case there is some hidden Trump vote, but we should know before 9 PM EST how the two candidates are performing in relation to polling and it will be clear who is going to win unless the race has drastically toghtened.

Problem with VA is that NoVa, especially Fairfax, is really slow to count. It is likely that Trump will have a lead in the state early on in the night.

I'm curious why that is.  It's densely populated and near a global data hub.
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Erc
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2016, 08:25:53 AM »

Early returns from Indiana and Kentucky between 6 and 7 PM EST will indicate whether Trump is under-performing in Republican counties. Early returns from Florida between 7 and 8 PM EST will also be telling. I imagine states like Pennsylvania and Virginia where she is leading will not be called immediately just in case there is some hidden Trump vote, but we should know before 9 PM EST how the two candidates are performing in relation to polling and it will be clear who is going to win unless the race has drastically toghtened.

Problem with VA is that NoVa, especially Fairfax, is really slow to count. It is likely that Trump will have a lead in the state early on in the night.

I'm curious why that is.  It's densely populated and near a global data hub.

Here in Arlington, at least, we have a lot of very large precincts, and the state specifically cut off money to modernize the voting system several years ago (for a while, this meant there was a confusing mix of electronic voting machines and paper scantron-type ballots; we've since switched back to scantron entirely).

We also have a very large itinerant population, with resulting large swings in turnout that we aren't always well-prepared for; I believe we ran out of ballots on March 1.

As a result, expect long lines that mean voting won't be finished until well after 7PM, plus the by-hand verification of the results typically takes an hour or two.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2016, 08:39:41 AM »

Trump down by low double digits a month from the election? There is no recovery. The national trackers will show up in statewide polling in key states. The absolute firewall of seventeen states and DC that Gore and Kerry both won (242 electoral votes) is all solid. One collision can transform a $100K sports car into a piece of scrap metal worth about $60.

Just add Florida (242+29 = 271) and Clinton wins.

With 242 solid electoral votes that look secure, one can add New Mexico, a state whose demographics should be hostile to Donald Trump. That itself is 247. New Hampshire looks close early, but it is likely gone. That's 252.

Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) have been disasters so far for Trump. With New Hampshire and New Mexico as reasonably sure things for Hillary Clinton, she has 273 electoral votes without Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Missouri, or Georgia.

Ohio (18) and either Iowa (6) or Nevada (6) with New Hampshire and New Mexico put Clinton at 274 without Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Missouri, or Georgia. Ohio (18) is an early call, and an early call of the Presidential election by all but the networks (gotta wait for the west-coast polls) comes if Hillary Clinton should have Ohio, Pennsylvania (she's not winning Ohio without also winning Pennsylvania) and Virginia locked up early. Ohio and Virginia close their polls rather early; Iowa and Nevada are late to close by east-coast standards.

Tepid results for Trump in Georgia or Indiana ("too close to call when the polls close") suggest a Trump defeat in the making. Trump has no way of losing Indiana and winning Ohio, and no way of losing Georgia without also losing Florida and North Carolina. Even in Virginia (where rural votes get counted first), a slight early lead for Trump indicates that he will win a state that Democrats used to find reliable in all but blow-out losses before 2000 (West Virginia)... but as votes from the DC suburbs, Richmond, and Tidewater roll in, everybody will know what is going on.

Hillary Clinton does not win North Carolina without winning Virginia, so that is practically moot. If North Carolina is too close to call after about thirty minutes, then Republicans might as well start watching Senate and House races or look for something else on TV. Georgia? Hillary Clinton is not going to win Georgia without also winning Florida.  Basketball and hockey seasons should be underway, and movie channels will not be showing electoral returns.

So what of an absolute call of the Presidency before 11 PM? The part of the Democratic firewall on the West Coast (California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington) comprise 89 electoral votes. For the exercise of an absolute call of the Presidency before the westernmost states close their polls, the absolute firewall would have to get cut to 158 electoral votes. So how would Hillary Clinton get 270 electoral votes locked up before 11 PM EST?

NH  4......4/162
VA 13...... 13/175
NC 15.....  28/190
GA 16.....  44/206
SC   9.....  53/215
OH 18.....  71/233
FL  29.....   100/263

Would it be Iowa and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska? Texas? Colorado? Indiana? Arizona? Missouri? Maybe even Texas?

Let's not get arrogant.
  


 

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2016, 08:46:25 AM »

Until the critical states are called. As soon as OH is in the Clinton column, the whole thing is over.
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Erc
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2016, 10:12:13 AM »

In terms of mathematical certitude (Clinton has 270 EV called for her):

Somewhere between 9 and 11, depending on when NC & GA get called for her.  NC is typically pretty slow, so 9PM seems too early.

Obama 2012 - West Coast + GA = 270 EV, so 10 PM is possible, but that would require every single state in there to be called by then; it's likely there'll be a fluke somewhere in there (Iowa? ME-2?) which would prevent a call when Nevada & Iowa come in.

I'd put my money on roughly the 10:30 PM range, though 11PM is also quite possible.

As for when any reasonable viewer would be certain: possibly as early as 7:30, if Ohio is called instantly...but it should definitely be obvious at 8PM when Florida, PA, etc. are called instantly.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2016, 10:21:49 AM »

When they call Pennsylvania for Hillary, it'll be over. Also, look for early calls in other states that are Safe D but where Trump should be getting closer than Romney because of working-class whites. An instant call in Michigan means Trump's probably not winning Ohio.
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Erc
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2016, 10:34:00 AM »

Based on our discussion in the demographics thread, I expect the exit polls are likely to be too favorable to Clinton, as they tend to oversample college-educated voters (a split that actually matters this year). 

That, combined with Clinton's general landslide, means that I expect the media are going to be pretty aggressive in calling states, at least in the first hour.  Even if they have some incentive to string the election out / be responsible with their calls, they're going to call Ohio at 7:30 when their exit polls show Clinton up by 15.
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°Leprechaun
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2016, 10:52:08 AM »

If the race tightens, maybe not likely, it could be like 2000 and we won't know until December (or January?). Since NH and Maine are close Clinton's "firewall" could be less than 269 and not the 273 that we expect. If Gore had won NH he would have gotten 270 electoral votes, so it wasn't just FL. NH is likely Clinton, but who really knows for sure? She has a lead there but it is tenuous. With 28 days to go anything can happen. She is rising in the polls, true, but what if she has already peaked. I do think Trump's chances are slim and Clinton could do as well as Obama is she wins all the states where she has a very tenuous lead, so I am not predicting a close election, I am only pointing out that the election could still be a lot closer than most of you realize. This is not a typical election cycle by any means. If nothing changes or the election continues to move in her direction then an early victory is certainly possible. I am also thinking that if the election is close and we don't know early on it could make a difference in close states like NV & AZ where people will still be voting when polls have long since closed in eastern states.
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