Larry Sabato article about long time GOP counties that could go Dem

[Nym90]

Pretty interesting article about counties that haven't voted Dem since at least 1944 but that are problematic for Trump demographically.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-2016-streak-breakers/

[Xing]

I'm surprised that he didn't mention San Juan, UT. Also, he claimed that AZ hasn't gone Democratic since 1948, which isn't true, since it went for Bill Clinton in 1996. Otherwise, interesting article. If Trump really does implode, I could see some of the KS counties going for Hillary, and possibly Ada, ID. Oh, and definitely Orange. Not sure about Maricopa. Trump will probably win Elliott.

[F_S_USATN]

My family is in Johnson County, KS. Wouldnt be surprised if this one flips. Know a few Romney/Clinton voters there. Dont think Riley Co. KS will

[F_S_USATN]

since it went for Bill Clinton in 1996.

96 might be a comparable map to this one when its all said and done

[Heisenberg]

since it went for Bill Clinton in 1996.

96 might be a comparable map to this one when its all said and done

Dole did win Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina, though, so no.

[tinman64]

Orange County is my first choice. The demographics have been changing for some time, and with Trump heading the ticket, going for Clinton seems a cinch.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Orange County
Ada County
Johnson County

Ada County 2008 Results
McCain 51.6%
Obama 45.5%

The only reason why Ada County swung sharply against Obama and towards Romney in 2012 related to "the Mormon factor". Obama's margin of victory held up rather strong in the core of Boise, where few Mormons lived, but he was pulverized in Meridian and west Boise, where Mormons tend to be more concentrated (from 33% to 66% of the population depending on the neighborhood/area in question). This year is a "perfect storm" of sorts.

It's worth noting that in 2014, Balukoff carried Ada County by nearly 10 percentage points and a "some dude" Democratic senate candidate nearly carried Ada County. It's going to flip folks.

[BuckeyeNut]

I could see Delaware County in Ohio going for Clinton. It's got a booming population, but it's all basically suburban Columbus. Lots of commuters. Well educated and upper-middle class.

Perfect Clinton/Portman territory.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think Delaware County and Hamilton County are wildcards. When Sabato calls the OC and Ada County "long-time GOP counties", he exaggerates a bit much. Those two counties are historically rock-ribbed but they're fairly marginal in the present. On the other hand, Delaware County and Hamilton County remind bastions of the Republican Party. I could see them flipping because this year but, if this is the case, it's going to be a bloodbath.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hamilton already flipped in '12, and it was damn close in '08. Cincinnati proper has shifted into solid blue territory, so in many ways it would be more surprising if the country went for Trump.

Though it too is perfect Clinton/Portman territory.

[Heisenberg]

Hamilton already flipped in '12, and it was damn close in '08. Cincinnati proper has shifted into solid blue territory, so in many ways it would be more surprising if the country went for Trump.

Though it too is perfect Clinton/Portman territory.

You're thinking of Hamilton, OH, the question asks about Hamilton, IN and Delaware, OH.

[Mr. Smith]

The OC, Maricopa, and Ada methinks.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hamilton already flipped in '12, and it was damn close in '08. Cincinnati proper has shifted into solid blue territory, so in many ways it would be more surprising if the country went for Trump.

Though it too is perfect Clinton/Portman territory.

You're thinking of Hamilton, OH, the question asks about Hamilton, IN and Delaware, OH.

Ah, so I am. Derp derp.

Delaware's a little more likely to flip than Hamilton. IMO.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Lee, Riley, Walworth, Johnson, Orange, Ada, Sarasota.

I'm surprised Walworth isn't getting more votes. It only barely voted for McCain, and Trump and the county's famous Congressman are not on best of terms.  That seems to me a lot more likely to flip than Maricopa.  If Arpaio won there with a bare majority 4 years ago, I think Trump wins with a plurality.

[5280]

Clinton won AZ in 1996 while losing Maricopa county, so there's that. She would have to up the votes in Coconino county and Pima county where more registered Democrats are located. Maricopa county isn't an area known for strong Democratic support.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Walworth County could, certainly.  When you look at the establishment, country-club Republicans around Lake Geneva being all wrong for Trump, the fact that it's Paul Ryan country, and the fact that it's drifting D anyway.

They did go Democrat when TR split the GOP in 1912 .

[The Dowager Mod]

Walworth could.

[Illiniwek]

Its a longshot, but I am hoping we can flip Ottawa County, MI for the first time since 1864!

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Lee and Ogle both prpbably stay red.

[Bismarck]

Lol anybody who votes Hamilton county doesn't understand Indiana. This is a county that voted for Goldwater, never voted Evan Bayh for senate (one of like 5/92 counties) and gave Mitch Daniels 80+ % in 2008.

[Nym90]

The only one that Clinton won was Orange, CA.

[Nym90]

Kinda surprising that Clinton didn't win more of these. I guess the hype of a massive college-educated white swing to Clinton was a bit more than the reality. They did swing towards her, but Trump still won them nationwide.