Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Texas

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

ME-02: Toss-Up --> Lean D
Pennsylvania: Lean D --> Likely D

Safe Clinton: 183
Likely Clinton: 42
Lean Clinton: 16
Toss-Up: 69
Lean Trump: 37
Likely Trump: 27
Safe Trump: 74

Clinton: 241
Trump: 138
Toss-Up: 69

Predictions

Ohio: Trump --> Clinton

Clinton: 310✔
Trump: 138

Texas: Likely R, 52-44 Trump.

Ohio has flipped to Clinton by 1 vote.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Given the current situation?  Somewhere between Likely R and Lean R.

Trump 48
Clinton 44
Johnson 7
Stein 1

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Likely R. The margin will be the closest since 1996, but it'll take another 2-3 elections before Texas moves to purple territory

52-45-3

EDIT: Depending on the outcome here and 2020, this could be the election that Texas moves from Solid R to Fools Gold for the Dems (AZ, GA). Even that shift should trouble the GOP

[NOVA Green]

Given the current situation?  Somewhere between Likely R and Lean R.

Trump 48
Clinton 44
Johnson 7
Stein 1

Voted likely R, but I would not be surprised to see Texas within a 5 point margin this election (Lean R).

Dems still have a lot of work and resources to do in terms of voter registration, building strong county level organizations in many parts of the state.

Even assuming Republican support collapses in 2016 among Tejanos and Latinos in Texas, along with women in the Republican suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, it's hard to see the state as a tossup without a significant national Democratic investment in the state to be able to push the ball over the finish line, unless White evangelical Christians start abandoning Trump en masse.

I have long posited on this forum that Texas would much closer than most expected this year, and as a forum resident of the Lone Star state, certainly hope that it comes close and that newly energized voters will remember their first vote or first vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate and follow that course in 2020.

[Erc]

Genuine Tossup; Clinton ekes out a win.

Even in Texas, there are limits to how well Trump can do among Hispanics.

[tinman64]

Likely R at this point.

Trump 50
Clinton 44
Others 6

[Lachi]

Toss up-Tlit R

We've seen how Latinos could vote, now we just have to see how they'll turnout

[dspNY]

Lean R

Trump 49
Clinton 43
Johnson 6
McMullin 1
Stein 1

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Well, Trump is campaigning in TX today and just told Texans to make sure to register in his latest tweet.

I predict something like 53-44 for Trump.

[AGA]

Safe R

Trump: 52%
Clinton: 43%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Likely R, Trump 52-45-3

[ElectionsGuy]

Genuine Tossup; Clinton ekes out a win.

Even in Texas, there are limits to how well Trump can do among Hispanics.

Let's try out a scenario. Let's say this happens (a very favorable scenario for Clinton)

Whites (55%): 74% Trump, 22% Clinton
Latinos (25%): 80% Clinton, 15% Trump
Blacks (13%): 90% Clinton, 8% Trump
Other (7%): 65% Clinton, 30% Trump

This ends up at about a tie, 48-48. This assumes Clinton wins 80-15 among Latinos and Latino turnout increases significantly, and whites swing to Clinton, and blacks/other makes up more of the electorate as well.

Don't be so overconfident.

[NOVA Green]

Genuine Tossup; Clinton ekes out a win.

Even in Texas, there are limits to how well Trump can do among Hispanics.

Let's try out a scenario. Let's say this happens (a very favorable scenario for Clinton)

Whites (55%): 74% Trump, 22% Clinton
Latinos (25%): 80% Clinton, 15% Trump
Blacks (13%): 90% Clinton, 8% Trump
Other (7%): 65% Clinton, 30% Trump

This ends up at about a tie, 48-48. This assumes Clinton wins 80-15 among Latinos and Latino turnout increases significantly, and whites swing to Clinton, and blacks/other makes up more of the electorate as well.

Don't be so overconfident.

Actually Election Guy your general breakdown by ethnicity is actually quite plausible in terms of the Dem-Rep numbers, although I think Clinton will do slightly better among Anglos than your scenario and slightly worse among Tejanos/Latinos that your scenario.

I think what you're driving at is that your total % of voters by ethnicity is an extremely favorable model to Democrats and that likely Anglos will be a bit higher as a total % of voters and Latinos a bit lower, and let's assume Black voters turn out as the same overall %. Your percentage for "other" might be a bit high considering that Asian-Americans historically haven't voted in large numbers, and Vietnamese-Americans are the largest population in much of Texas, but if we include individuals from mixed-ethnicity (Within a modern American political identity scene) I could see where you come up with a 7% number.

I do think that "Anglos" will be closer to 60% of the electorate and be more like 26-28% Democrat and that Latinos in Tejas will still give at least 25% support to the Republican nominee, even with high turnout levels amongst Latinos....

Texas isn't Cali yet, but I get your fundamental point and agree that Texas isn't quite a toss-up state YET....

[America Needs R'hllor]

Leans R atm, but if Trump continues falling it could become a tossup.

[Adam the Gr8]

Likely R, maybe at the edge of safe R?

[Erc]

Genuine Tossup; Clinton ekes out a win.

Even in Texas, there are limits to how well Trump can do among Hispanics.

Let's try out a scenario. Let's say this happens (a very favorable scenario for Clinton)

Whites (55%): 74% Trump, 22% Clinton
Latinos (25%): 80% Clinton, 15% Trump
Blacks (13%): 90% Clinton, 8% Trump
Other (7%): 65% Clinton, 30% Trump

This ends up at about a tie, 48-48. This assumes Clinton wins 80-15 among Latinos and Latino turnout increases significantly, and whites swing to Clinton, and blacks/other makes up more of the electorate as well.

Don't be so overconfident.

Obviously, a lot of it does come down to Clinton's performance and turnout among Latino voters, but the white vote matters as well.

The only recent poll we have out of Texas showed Trump with "only" a 27-point lead among White voters in Texas.  Not a great poll, admittedly, and I do expect the margin will likely be wider than that, but I would expect the Clinton-Trump margin will be closer than the 47-point margin among whites in 2008 (the last year we had exit polls).  

[Note that I'm basing my prediction on a double-digit nationwide Clinton win, as well.]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - the absolute key in Texas is Latino turnout. I think if Clinton does make a play for it, considering how expensive Texas is to campaign in, then she can give Trump a real fright and probably put pressure on a few House seats. But I don't see the stars aligning for a win and it's a lot of money.

I do think it's not quite "Safe", but very very firmly in the 'Likely' category.

[evergreenarbor]

Likely R.

Trump: 50%
Clinton: 43%
Johnson: 6%
Other: 1%

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Bernie signs are still up here in the Austin area. Not sure if they are all voting for Clinton.  I voted Lean R/Trump.  Hispanics and women are going to push the vote here but not quite enough.

[Xing]

Hard to see Texas actually going for Hillary. I suppose that if Latino turnout spikes, and Trump really does implode, it's conceivable, but still far from probable. Likely R, Trump wins 51-44.

[peterthlee]

Lean R
Trump 50-48-2 (Rounding off, Trump falls short of 50%)
I can see Trump still getting more than 4 million votes (due to my projected 60%-62% turnout) and being capped at around 4.3 million, while Hillary will certainly break the Dem ceiling of 3.5 million votes-she could get as high as approximately 4-4.1 million there

[TDAS04]

Likely R, Trump wins by about 7 points.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Lean R, Trump 51-46

[ElectionsGuy]

Past results are updated. I'm also going to change to Likely R because I've now seen polls where Clinton is leading nationally by 9-11 points and Texas has a higher than average college educated white percentage of the electorate, one that could potentially spill into Clinton's column if she were to campaign in the state. However, I still stand by my points made in the thread and don't think its competitive.

[Young Conservative]

Trump 53
Clinton 41