Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Texas

[NOVA Green]

Given the current situation?  Somewhere between Likely R and Lean R.

Trump 48
Clinton 44
Johnson 7
Stein 1

Voted likely R, but I would not be surprised to see Texas within a 5 point margin this election (Lean R).

Dems still have a lot of work and resources to do in terms of voter registration, building strong county level organizations in many parts of the state.

Even assuming Republican support collapses in 2016 among Tejanos and Latinos in Texas, along with women in the Republican suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, it's hard to see the state as a tossup without a significant national Democratic investment in the state to be able to push the ball over the finish line, unless White evangelical Christians start abandoning Trump en masse.

I have long posited on this forum that Texas would much closer than most expected this year, and as a forum resident of the Lone Star state, certainly hope that it comes close and that newly energized voters will remember their first vote or first vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate and follow that course in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Genuine Tossup; Clinton ekes out a win.

Even in Texas, there are limits to how well Trump can do among Hispanics.

Let's try out a scenario. Let's say this happens (a very favorable scenario for Clinton)

Whites (55%): 74% Trump, 22% Clinton
Latinos (25%): 80% Clinton, 15% Trump
Blacks (13%): 90% Clinton, 8% Trump
Other (7%): 65% Clinton, 30% Trump

This ends up at about a tie, 48-48. This assumes Clinton wins 80-15 among Latinos and Latino turnout increases significantly, and whites swing to Clinton, and blacks/other makes up more of the electorate as well.

Don't be so overconfident.

Actually Election Guy your general breakdown by ethnicity is actually quite plausible in terms of the Dem-Rep numbers, although I think Clinton will do slightly better among Anglos than your scenario and slightly worse among Tejanos/Latinos that your scenario.

I think what you're driving at is that your total % of voters by ethnicity is an extremely favorable model to Democrats and that likely Anglos will be a bit higher as a total % of voters and Latinos a bit lower, and let's assume Black voters turn out as the same overall %. Your percentage for "other" might be a bit high considering that Asian-Americans historically haven't voted in large numbers, and Vietnamese-Americans are the largest population in much of Texas, but if we include individuals from mixed-ethnicity (Within a modern American political identity scene) I could see where you come up with a 7% number.

I do think that "Anglos" will be closer to 60% of the electorate and be more like 26-28% Democrat and that Latinos in Tejas will still give at least 25% support to the Republican nominee, even with high turnout levels amongst Latinos....

Texas isn't Cali yet, but I get your fundamental point and agree that Texas isn't quite a toss-up state YET....

[NOVA Green]

Moving it to Lean R based on early voting numbers and recent polling.

I think Trump will eke out a 3 point win here, but wouldn't be surprised to see polling underestimating the Latino surge, and the EV numbers are extremely favorable for Clinton thus far.