Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN

[The Other Castro]

I don't know Colorado, Republicans doing better with early voting and there is a new early voting system this year so maybe he is in play. But Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin are lost IMO.

Republicans are doing worse with early voting in Colorado this year, not better, and we haven't even gotten the last minute youngins surge yet.

[Speed of Sound]

why is he cancelling WI but still visits reno? seems weird.

(ok, geographically, maybe cause of his CO visit and to help heck....thanks a lot, haha...)

Part of it is that this was the event co-scheduled with the Packers game. So it wasn't going to go well regardless.

[Ebsy]

Going to Reno is a waste of time though since most people have already voted. Nevada is all about ground game and the machine turning people out, not big rallies (unless they are during early voting and you get your supporters to the polls, which Trump failed to do in Vegas last week).

[riceowl]

LOL

Katy Tur right now: "Is this the difference between a data-driven campaign and just...throwing spaghetti at a wall?"

[Ebsy]

LOL

Katy Tur right now: "Is this the difference between a data-driven campaign and just...throwing spaghetti at a wall?"

It's very obvious that these decisions are not being driven by campaign data operations.

[Storebought]

LOL

Katy Tur right now: "Is this the difference between a data-driven campaign and just...throwing spaghetti at a wall?"

It's very obvious that these decisions are not being driven by campaign data operations.

If that's the case, then what is Kellyanne Conway being paid to do?

[Ebsy]

LOL

Katy Tur right now: "Is this the difference between a data-driven campaign and just...throwing spaghetti at a wall?"

It's very obvious that these decisions are not being driven by campaign data operations.

If that's the case, then what is Kellyanne Conway being paid to do?

Media appearances and advising. Trump is not even paying his pollster (Tony Fabrizio) at the moment and basically makes all media buy decisions himself. If you want to know more about Trump's data operation, go read the Bloomberg piece about it.

[Ebsy]

And now we have confirmation:

https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/794971824824188932

Frida Ghitis ‏@FridaGhitis  52m52 minutes ago
Político writer tells MSNBC that Trump has stopped polling - because he refuses to pay his pollster. May explain campaigning in odd places.

[Likely Voter]

Since last night Trump has added rallies in MN, MI and PA and Pence added one in MI. The WI Trump rally is still on the Sunday schedule. Right now he has five rallies booked in five states (IA, MN, WI, MI, PA) in the span of nine hours on Sunday.  

Last night Chuck Todd said that the travel schedules showed what's going on inside the campaigns. For Clinton the specific cities she is targeting shows the campaign's concern over the African American vote and they are singularly focused on that. For Trump, he compared it to Dole 1996 with no clear path to 270 and just trying everything. He also used the 'spaghetti against the wall' metaphor.

http://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams/watch/chuck-todd-campaigns-are-not-fighting-over-a-single-voter-801641539710

[QE]

Clinton adds a stop in Grand Rapids, MI on Monday; President Obama to Ann Arbor on Monday, also.

Liz Kreutz Verified account ‏@ABCLiz 59s59 seconds ago

Both Hillary Clinton & President Obama will campaign in Michigan on Monday. HRC in Grand Rapids; POTUS in Ann Arbor, per campaign.
0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes

[alomas]

Right now he has five rallies booked in five states (IA, MN, WI, MI, PA) in the span of nine hours on Sunday.  

And he's 70, that's the stamina! What a fighter.

[heatcharger]

Clinton adds a stop in Grand Rapids, MI on Monday; President Obama to Ann Arbor on Monday, also.

Liz Kreutz Verified account ‏@ABCLiz 59s59 seconds ago

Both Hillary Clinton & President Obama will campaign in Michigan on Monday. HRC in Grand Rapids; POTUS in Ann Arbor, per campaign.
0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes

Not sure I'm a fan of these moves. Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor aren't exactly the places to go if you want to fire up African-American support. Why wouldn't you want to send Obama to Detroit?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Clinton adds a stop in Grand Rapids, MI on Monday; President Obama to Ann Arbor on Monday, also.

Liz Kreutz Verified account ‏@ABCLiz 59s59 seconds ago

Both Hillary Clinton & President Obama will campaign in Michigan on Monday. HRC in Grand Rapids; POTUS in Ann Arbor, per campaign.
0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes

Not sure I'm a fan of these moves. Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor aren't exactly the places to go if you want to fire up African-American support. Why wouldn't you want to send Obama to Detroit?

Ann Arbor for the college vote, perhaps.

[QE]

Clinton adds a stop in Grand Rapids, MI on Monday; President Obama to Ann Arbor on Monday, also.

Liz Kreutz Verified account ‏@ABCLiz 59s59 seconds ago

Both Hillary Clinton & President Obama will campaign in Michigan on Monday. HRC in Grand Rapids; POTUS in Ann Arbor, per campaign.
0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes

Not sure I'm a fan of these moves. Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor aren't exactly the places to go if you want to fire up African-American support. Why wouldn't you want to send Obama to Detroit?

I don't doubt that a lot of precincts in Ann Arbor operate as if they're predominately African-American given that some may go 90-10 for the Dems. Also, Grand Rapids has a sizable African American contingent.

My guess is that their internal polling largely mirrors the public polling (Clinton up by 3-5), but due to (1) an abundance of caution, (2) relatively low-return rates of absentee ballots from Detroit vs. 2012, (3) the fact that Michigan doesn't have early voting and (4) memories of the primary surprise/disaster back in March, they don't want to take any chances.

Also: Bill Clinton to Lansing (Sunday, I think?)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Since last night Trump has added rallies in MN, MI and PA and Pence added one in MI. The WI Trump rally is still on the Sunday schedule. Right now he has five rallies booked in five states (IA, MN, WI, MI, PA) in the span of nine hours on Sunday.  

Last night Chuck Todd said that the travel schedules showed what's going on inside the campaigns. For Clinton the specific cities she is targeting shows the campaign's concern over the African American vote and they are singularly focused on that. For Trump, he compared it to Dole 1996 with no clear path to 270 and just trying everything. He also used the 'spaghetti against the wall' metaphor.

http://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams/watch/chuck-todd-campaigns-are-not-fighting-over-a-single-voter-801641539710

I think Trump's strategy is pretty reasonable. According to 538's Clinton's margin is about the same in the following states
NM +5.4% (but here we have almost no polling + polls probably miss hispanics)
MN +4.9%
VA  +4.9%
WI  +4.2%
MI  +3.8%
PA  +3.5%
CO  +3.3%
NH  +2.0%

They all are also has more or less Trump'ish demographics.

I think Trump just hopes that polling error occurs somewhere (it was BTW my theory all along). But he doesn't know where (no one does), so he is just trying all of them.

So  'spaghetti against the wall' is not just reasonable description, but it is also is reasonable strategy in Trump's case.

[heatcharger]

Good choice.

Obama's final 2012 rally: Des Moines, IA
Obama's final 2008 rally: Manassas, VA

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since last night Trump has added rallies in MN, MI and PA and Pence added one in MI. The WI Trump rally is still on the Sunday schedule. Right now he has five rallies booked in five states (IA, MN, WI, MI, PA) in the span of nine hours on Sunday.  

Last night Chuck Todd said that the travel schedules showed what's going on inside the campaigns. For Clinton the specific cities she is targeting shows the campaign's concern over the African American vote and they are singularly focused on that. For Trump, he compared it to Dole 1996 with no clear path to 270 and just trying everything. He also used the 'spaghetti against the wall' metaphor.

http://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams/watch/chuck-todd-campaigns-are-not-fighting-over-a-single-voter-801641539710

I think Trump's strategy is pretty reasonable. According to 538's Clinton's margin is about the same in the following states
NM +5.4% (but here we have almost no polling + polls probably miss hispanics)
MN +4.9%
VA  +4.9%
WI  +4.2%
MI  +3.8%
PA  +3.5%
CO  +3.3%
NH  +2.0%

They all are also has more or less Trump'ish demographics.

I think Trump just hopes that polling error occurs somewhere (it was BTW my theory all along). But he doesn't know where (no one does), so he is just trying all of them.

So  'spaghetti against the wall' is not just reasonable description, but it is also is reasonable strategy in Trump's case.

I agree with this.  It only makes sense for any candidate to try and maximize their winning chances.  It's like a card game where the only way you can win is if a certain opponent has (say) both the jack and queen of spades, then that's the way you have to play it.  It may be unlikely, but if it doesn't happen then you've lost anyway, so it's reasonable to assume it's true.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just for comparison, Obama's last rallies in 2012 were in Wisconsin and Iowa, two states he won by more than his national margin.

[Ebsy]

Just for comparison, Obama's last rallies in 2012 were in Wisconsin and Iowa, two states he won by more than his national margin.

Yeah, it is fairly typical in the closing days of the campaign to make a trip through some of your leaning/likely states to shore up the vote.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just for comparison, Obama's last rallies in 2012 were in Wisconsin and Iowa, two states he won by more than his national margin.

Yeah, it is fairly typical in the closing days of the campaign to make a trip through some of your leaning/likely states to shore up the vote.

Even if she is ahead by just 3-4 points this is a margin that can't possibly be erased in a couple of days.
But I guess the primary loss has left an emotional scar so they are probably thinking "better safe than sorry".

[QE]

Peter Alexander Verified account
‏@PeterAlexander

NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there

[Maxwell]

Peter Alexander Verified account
‏@PeterAlexander

NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there

somehow I think the "Trump Internal" is that weird poll that shows a tied race.

I feel this is like when Romney thought he was going to win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and his "polls" said as much.

[Speed of Sound]

Peter Alexander Verified account
‏@PeterAlexander

NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there

If it's coming down to 1v1, Clinton GOTV v Trump GOTV in Michigan, I'm not too worried. (Not that I think MI will be the tipping point anyway; that'll be FL)

[QE]

Peter Alexander Verified account
‏@PeterAlexander

NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there

somehow I think the "Trump Internal" is that weird poll that shows a tied race.

Haha, I had the same thought.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Peter Alexander Verified account
‏@PeterAlexander

NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there

somehow I think the "Trump Internal" is that weird poll that shows a tied race.

I feel this is like when Romney thought he was going to win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and his "polls" said as much.

Lol, Trump doesn't have internals any more...