Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

[Speed of Sound]

Alright, Shadow needs to go on ignore until he takes his medicine.

[IceSpear]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

[Holmes]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.

[IceSpear]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

What do you suppose the MoE was on that one day sample?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.

The week after the first debate and the tax return scandal. If Trump was able to lead at that point than any recovery he gets is going to put him in the lead. Plus, outside of the PPP poll (which excluded third parties and was therefore useless), Hillary hasn't cracked 50% in the state in months. I was the one on this forum that said Trump would never win WI, but I assumed she'd be up by something like 51-44 at this point in the race, not 44-37. Those undecideds are basically lying or, as many others on this forum have stated, are looking for an excuse to vote GOP.

[IceSpear]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.

The week after the first debate and the tax return scandal. If Trump was able to lead at that point than any recovery he gets is going to put him in the lead. Plus, outside of the PPP poll (which excluded third parties and was therefore useless), Hillary hasn't cracked 50% in the state in months. I was the one on this forum that said Trump would never win WI, but I assumed she'd be up by something like 51-44 at this point in the race, not 44-37. Those undecideds are basically lying or, as many others on this forum have stated, are looking for an excuse to vote GOP.

The page I just linked to has her up 47-41, not 44-37. Also, see the MoE post above. Your one day sample was probably something like +/-10%.

[Hammy]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.

The week after the first debate and the tax return scandal. If Trump was able to lead at that point than any recovery he gets is going to put him in the lead. Plus, outside of the PPP poll (which excluded third parties and was therefore useless), Hillary hasn't cracked 50% in the state in months. I was the one on this forum that said Trump would never win WI, but I assumed she'd be up by something like 51-44 at this point in the race, not 44-37. Those undecideds are basically lying or, as many others on this forum have stated, are looking for an excuse to vote GOP.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55

Trump never led Wisconsin. Ever. And I've said it before--nobody is winning a state that goes consistently to the opposite party in the GE if they were not able to win that state in a non-caucus primary vote.

[Mehmentum]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.

The week after the first debate and the tax return scandal. If Trump was able to lead at that point than any recovery he gets is going to put him in the lead. Plus, outside of the PPP poll (which excluded third parties and was therefore useless), Hillary hasn't cracked 50% in the state in months. I was the one on this forum that said Trump would never win WI, but I assumed she'd be up by something like 51-44 at this point in the race, not 44-37. Those undecideds are basically lying or, as many others on this forum have stated, are looking for an excuse to vote GOP.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55

Trump never led Wisconsin. Ever. And I've said it before--nobody is winning a state that goes consistently to the opposite party in the GE if they were not able to win that state in a non-caucus primary vote.

I agree that Trump won't win Wisconsin, but the primary vote has nothing to do with it.  Off the top of my head, Obama won Indiana in 2008 despite losing the primary.

[Hammy]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.

The week after the first debate and the tax return scandal. If Trump was able to lead at that point than any recovery he gets is going to put him in the lead. Plus, outside of the PPP poll (which excluded third parties and was therefore useless), Hillary hasn't cracked 50% in the state in months. I was the one on this forum that said Trump would never win WI, but I assumed she'd be up by something like 51-44 at this point in the race, not 44-37. Those undecideds are basically lying or, as many others on this forum have stated, are looking for an excuse to vote GOP.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55

Trump never led Wisconsin. Ever. And I've said it before--nobody is winning a state that goes consistently to the opposite party in the GE if they were not able to win that state in a non-caucus primary vote.

I agree that Trump won't win Wisconsin, but the primary vote has nothing to do with it.  Off the top of my head, Obama won Indiana in 2008 despite losing the primary.

I'm talking specifically 2016 not in general. Trump is very much hated among enough Republicans that in D-leaning states that he lost, there would not be enough willing to show up to give him a win. Similar to the Sanders supporters in R-leaning states with Clinton.

[Badger]

Understandable. NC, FL and NV look to be firmly in Trump's camp now, so it makes sense to push into bluer states.

Joking or stupid?

No, seriously. I'm genuinely not sure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Understandable. NC, FL and NV look to be firmly in Trump's camp now, so it makes sense to push into bluer states.

Joking or stupid?

No, seriously. I'm genuinely not sure.

These are people who thought Trump would only JUST lose when Clinton was up near double-digits. So... either performance art or a cretin. Remember this is Atlas, people would rather be the first to predict something, regardless. 

[Badger]

Understandable. NC, FL and NV look to be firmly in Trump's camp now, so it makes sense to push into bluer states.

Joking or stupid?

No, seriously. I'm genuinely not sure.

These are people who thought Trump would only JUST lose when Clinton was up near double-digits. So... either performance art or a cretin. Remember this is Atlas, people would rather be the first to predict something, regardless. 

<sigh> True dat.

My God the hand wringing in other threads....

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  10m10 minutes ago
Bernie's political operation says he'll campaign in NH ME MI WI OH NC IA NE CO AZ NV CA b/w now and Election Day. Quite a closing sprint.

Damnnnnnnnn.

[SunSt0rm]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  10m10 minutes ago
Bernie's political operation says he'll campaign in NH ME MI WI OH NC IA NE CO AZ NV CA b/w now and Election Day. Quite a closing sprint.

Damnnnnnnnn.

California lol

probably for some house races, nvm

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's always funny watching the schedule of the last week come into place, it's like playing President Forever, and you keep zipping back and forth between the same 3-4 states.

[Speed of Sound]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  10m10 minutes ago
Bernie's political operation says he'll campaign in NH ME MI WI OH NC IA NE CO AZ NV CA b/w now and Election Day. Quite a closing sprint.

Damnnnnnnnn.

Smart. Nobody can say he didn't fall in line. He'll help drive young vote, and he's one of many popular Clinton surrogates that are criss crossing the nation to finish this out.

[Likely Voter]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

[IceSpear]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.

[dspNY]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Nothing in NC or OH (NC because they are trailing, OH because they probably think they have it won and are overconfident)

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Nothing in NC or OH (NC because they are trailing, OH because they probably think they have it won and are overconfident)

If NV is also in the bag, even PA won't be enough...

[Speed of Sound]

No expansion into PA by the large new Trump ad buy, and they won't be able to get one in now anymore. Looks like they're throwing in the towel on that one (as well they should).

Official announcement on the ad expansion:

https://twitter.com/ericbradner/status/793470063034634240

EDIT: This bumbling excuse for a well-run campaign apparently just forgot to list PA.

https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/793480787677110272

[AmericanNation]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.

Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.

Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

In order:

He's not winning OH, NC, and FL right now.  OH at this point is probably Lean R, NC and FL Tossup to Lean D.

She's not radioactive right now.  Polls have shown very little movement due to Comey and she still has a clear lead in the polls, though narrower than it was a couple of weeks ago.