Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN
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Author Topic: Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN  (Read 15663 times)
AmericanNation
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« Reply #125 on: November 01, 2016, 12:30:41 PM »

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.
Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

In order:

He's not winning OH, NC, and FL right now.  OH at this point is probably Lean R, NC and FL Tossup to Lean D.

She's not radioactive right now.  Polls have shown very little movement due to Comey and she still has a clear lead in the polls, though narrower than it was a couple of weeks ago.
1) He is winning in OH, NC, and FL.  NC is the closest he's only up 2 there. 
2) She has the highest negatives of any candidate ever (she is significantly higher than trump now), she is (Publicly) under federal investigation for the 2nd time, she is guilty of many serious crimes that will result in impeachment or constitutional crisis...  what would you consider radioactive?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #126 on: November 01, 2016, 12:36:49 PM »

Every poll has Trump's negatives substantially higher than Clinton's so I don't know where you are getting your figures from.
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alomas
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« Reply #127 on: November 01, 2016, 12:37:48 PM »

Trump must challenge Pennsylvania and/or Michigan and Wisconsin. He can't just preserve his apparent advantage in NC, OH and FL, that won't him win the election. PA is not voting until election day which is a good sign for Trump, same for Michigan.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #128 on: November 01, 2016, 12:38:44 PM »

Every poll has Trump's negatives substantially higher than Clinton's so I don't know where you are getting your figures from.

He is pulling them from his ass.

Trump is far less popular then Clinton. Both have low favorablities, but Trump is running 10-15 points behind her in most polls.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #129 on: November 01, 2016, 12:50:01 PM »

Heading to a Clinton rally in AZ tomorrow.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #130 on: November 01, 2016, 01:19:14 PM »

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.
Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

In order:

He's not winning OH, NC, and FL right now.  OH at this point is probably Lean R, NC and FL Tossup to Lean D.

She's not radioactive right now.  Polls have shown very little movement due to Comey and she still has a clear lead in the polls, though narrower than it was a couple of weeks ago.
1) He is winning in OH, NC, and FL.  NC is the closest he's only up 2 there. 
2) She has the highest negatives of any candidate ever (she is significantly higher than trump now), she is (Publicly) under federal investigation for the 2nd time, she is guilty of many serious crimes that will result in impeachment or constitutional crisis...  what would you consider radioactive?

Let's look at real numbers and not feelings or opinions, shall we?

1) Don't cherry pick polls.  It's intellectually dishonest.  Looking at the two major poll aggregators, RCP and HuffPo, the current averages are:

OH: T+2.5, C+1 (average of the two: T+0.75)
NC: C+2.0, C+3 (average: C+2.5)
FL: T+1.0, C+2 (average: C+0.5)

They're all close, but Clinton is slightly ahead in NC, Trump in OH, and FL is a tossup (I won't quibble about a fraction of a percent).  Please explain how you translate these numbers to Trump is winning in all of them.

2) I invite you to look at Gallup's rolling samples of candidate favorability at  http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles#pcf-image.  In the latest sample (Oct. 25-31), Clinton is at 43/54 (-11), which is indeed pretty bad.  But Trump's favorability is FAR worse at 34/63 (-29).  So it's quite clear which candidate is more unpopular.

Actually, looking at the previous Gallup numbers explains a lot about why the race has tightened in the past couple of weeks.  Clinton's been in a narrow range for the past two weeks of -14 to -11, with one day at -9.  But Trump has improved since then; two weeks ago he was at -34, but he's been gradually trending upward and was as high as -27 a few days ago.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #131 on: November 01, 2016, 01:19:26 PM »

Pence added rallies in AZ, CO and NM. 
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #132 on: November 01, 2016, 01:46:46 PM »

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.
Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

In order:

He's not winning OH, NC, and FL right now.  OH at this point is probably Lean R, NC and FL Tossup to Lean D.

She's not radioactive right now.  Polls have shown very little movement due to Comey and she still has a clear lead in the polls, though narrower than it was a couple of weeks ago.
1) He is winning in OH, NC, and FL.  NC is the closest he's only up 2 there. 
2) She has the highest negatives of any candidate ever (she is significantly higher than trump now), she is (Publicly) under federal investigation for the 2nd time, she is guilty of many serious crimes that will result in impeachment or constitutional crisis...  what would you consider radioactive?

Let's look at real numbers and not feelings or opinions, shall we?

1) Don't cherry pick polls.  It's intellectually dishonest.  Looking at the two major poll aggregators, RCP and HuffPo, the current averages are:

OH: T+2.5, C+1 (average of the two: T+0.75)
NC: C+2.0, C+3 (average: C+2.5)
FL: T+1.0, C+2 (average: C+0.5)

They're all close, but Clinton is slightly ahead in NC, Trump in OH, and FL is a tossup (I won't quibble about a fraction of a percent).  Please explain how you translate these numbers to Trump is winning in all of them.

2) I invite you to look at Gallup's rolling samples of candidate favorability at  http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles#pcf-image.  In the latest sample (Oct. 25-31), Clinton is at 43/54 (-11), which is indeed pretty bad.  But Trump's favorability is FAR worse at 34/63 (-29).  So it's quite clear which candidate is more unpopular.

Actually, looking at the previous Gallup numbers explains a lot about why the race has tightened in the past couple of weeks.  Clinton's been in a narrow range for the past two weeks of -14 to -11, with one day at -9.  But Trump has improved since then; two weeks ago he was at -34, but he's been gradually trending upward and was as high as -27 a few days ago.
when a candidate moves ahead in recent polling after long trailing they will be behind in aggregators for a while.  the fact that you don't know that or it didn't occur to you is disconcerting.  When many polls all over the place move in one direction it isn't cherry picked, it is a clear pattern.  Trump could win 300 EV and be behind in the aggregators. 

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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #133 on: November 01, 2016, 01:49:33 PM »

Clinton is dumping six figure ad buys in: Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/793524482451337216

It's happening!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #134 on: November 01, 2016, 01:51:07 PM »

Clinton is dumping six figure ad buys in: Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/793524482451337216

It's happening!

You expect her to leave those states undefended in the final stretch when she has more than enough resources to do so while working on others?
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #135 on: November 01, 2016, 01:52:37 PM »

Clinton is dumping six figure ad buys in: Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/793524482451337216

It's happening!

You expect her to leave those states undefended in the final stretch when she has more than enough resources to do so while working on others?
Spin it however you want buddy.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #136 on: November 01, 2016, 02:10:09 PM »

MI and NM are new but Clinton spent over $4m on VA and CO in October  (mostly CO). Their total weekly tv spend has been around  $23m.  They do have a pattern of following Trump after he starts spending in a blue state, like they did in ME and WI.  So far Team Trump hasn't done the same with spending money in GA, AZ or NE, where Team Clinton has been spending
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #137 on: November 01, 2016, 02:15:03 PM »

MI and NM are new but Clinton spent over $4m on VA and CO in October  (mostly CO). Their total weekly tv spend has been around  $23m.  They do have a pattern of following Trump after he starts spending in a blue state, like they did in ME and WI.  So far Team Trump hasn't done the same with spending money in GA, AZ or NE, where Team Clinton has been spending

Thanks, LV.

There's your spin, "buddy." @CC
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #138 on: November 01, 2016, 05:42:08 PM »

YUGE new donation by Trump to his campaign:

Teddy SchleiferVerified account ‏@teddyschleifer  57m57 minutes ago
Donald Trump has given another $8,896.68 to his campaign, per new filing.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #139 on: November 01, 2016, 05:50:57 PM »

In my humble opinion, Clinton should just ditch AZ.  She doesn't need it.
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Milton Friedman
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« Reply #140 on: November 01, 2016, 05:52:04 PM »

Hillary to Detroit Friday.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #141 on: November 01, 2016, 05:52:31 PM »

In my humble opinion, Clinton should just ditch AZ.  She doesn't need it.

I think ditching Georgia is much more economical - Arizona has a demographic of which is turning out strongly.
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #142 on: November 01, 2016, 05:53:38 PM »

In my humble opinion, Clinton should just ditch AZ.  She doesn't need it.
The thing is that if she cancels her trip, the media will go on the sinking ship frenzy.
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Enduro
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« Reply #143 on: November 01, 2016, 07:47:34 PM »

Clinton is dumping six figure ad buys in: Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/793524482451337216

It's happening!

You expect her to leave those states undefended in the final stretch when she has more than enough resources to do so while working on others?
Spin it however you want buddy.

Classic, he's probably right.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #144 on: November 01, 2016, 07:57:09 PM »

Clinton is dumping six figure ad buys in: Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/793524482451337216

It's happening!

You expect her to leave those states undefended in the final stretch when she has more than enough resources to do so while working on others?

When his candidate has essentially been losing the entire election cycle, it's not surprising that he would immediately latch onto the most beneficial, pro-Trump reasoning he can derive from it while labeling any other reasons as "spin."

It's a week from election day. He needs to believe she is panicking over likely/safe states. He needs it bad. Let's just let him have this one.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #145 on: November 01, 2016, 08:04:45 PM »

I don't know if this was a national ad or not, but I just saw a Clinton ad on Fox 5 in Atlanta during the World Series game.  Only the second one I've seen for her on Atlanta TV; the other was in early September.
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Lachi
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« Reply #146 on: November 01, 2016, 08:05:06 PM »

In my humble opinion, Clinton should just ditch AZ.  She doesn't need it.
That would be one of the worst decisions to make at this point, as it'll make it seem like she's throwing in the towel a bit.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #147 on: November 01, 2016, 08:07:15 PM »

Clinton is dumping six figure ad buys in: Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/793524482451337216

It's happening!

You expect her to leave those states undefended in the final stretch when she has more than enough resources to do so while working on others?

When his candidate has essentially been losing the entire election cycle, it's not surprising that he would immediately latch onto the most beneficial, pro-Trump reasoning he can derive from it while labeling any other reasons as "spin."

It's a week from election day. He needs to believe she is panicking over likely/safe states. He needs it bad. Let's just let him have this one.
Actually, [some] of those states might be a tipping point if the race will have tighten a bit according to *538's model. I wouldn't call it panicking, of course. It is though not like she do it, because she can, but because she has to [possible tightening is not that unlikely].

* Never mind, if you think Nate is clickbait/looser etc.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/
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Virginiá
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« Reply #148 on: November 01, 2016, 08:19:39 PM »

Actually, [some] of those states might be a tipping point if the race will have tighten a bit according to *538's model. I wouldn't call it panicking, of course. It is though not like she do it, because she can, but because she has to [possible tightening is not that unlikely].

* Never mind, if you think Nate is clickbait/looser etc.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

Yes, I mean it's a possibility but personally I don't see the states she is putting money in as serious issues right now, and I doubt she does either.

Also worth noting is that in addition to proactively defending from Trump's recent moves, all those states have either hard-fought competitive Congressional races and/or legislature chamber(s) Democrats are pining to take back this year. They all would benefit from good Clinton numbers.
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Badger
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« Reply #149 on: November 01, 2016, 11:01:33 PM »

oh please.

Trump's desperate, and for Hillary this is all about the Senate (or should be). she needs to campaign in PA, NC, NH, NV, MO (St. Louis, KC, and Independence only), plus maybe WI and FL.
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