Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.
Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.
Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.
The week after the first debate and the tax return scandal. If Trump was able to lead at that point than any recovery he gets is going to put him in the lead. Plus, outside of the PPP poll (which excluded third parties and was therefore useless), Hillary hasn't cracked 50% in the state in months. I was the one on this forum that said Trump would never win WI, but I assumed she'd be up by something like 51-44 at this point in the race, not 44-37. Those undecideds are basically lying or, as many others on this forum have stated, are looking for an excuse to vote GOP.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55
Trump never led Wisconsin. Ever. And I've said it before--nobody is winning a state that goes consistently to the opposite party in the GE if they were not able to win that state in a non-caucus primary vote.
I agree that Trump won't win Wisconsin, but the primary vote has nothing to do with it. Off the top of my head, Obama won Indiana in 2008 despite losing the primary.
