Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN

[dspNY]

NEEEEEEEEEEEEEXT

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https://twitter.com/betsy_klein/status/792776520553168896

I bet their internals show them in a position better than Obama 2012.

Any word on Georgia? Or is it pretty much too far out of reach at this point?

I think they're locked in on the Obama 2012 swing states + Arizona

[dspNY]

Understandable. NC, FL and NV look to be firmly in Trump's camp now, so it makes sense to push into bluer states.

FL is at worst tied for Clinton, and she leads in NC and NV

[dspNY]

This is also an admission from the Trump campaign that they will lose Pennsylvania so they need a miracle somewhere else.

Basically, this is what we know (and what the Trump campaign knows):

Nevada is just about gone
They trail significantly in PA, NH, and now NC (NC has a lot of its early vote cast already, so hard to make a comeback there)

So they have no current path to 270 and have to throw a Hail Mary

[dspNY]

Robert Costa:

"Many of them describe the way to 270 not as a direct shot but a series of upsets and bank shots, of strong R showing  + depressed D turnout"

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/792878245108674560

They're still nowhere close

[dspNY]

More from Costa:

"My read of Trumpland tonight: They know the path is very narrow. They see the polls, pub and priv. But they're scrambling map post-Comey..."

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/792878514479439878

"But list of hurdles goes on and on. HRC and Dems highly organized. Early vote. Top Ds hitting trail. FBI news also enthusing D voters..."

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/792878514479439878

[dspNY]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Nothing in NC or OH (NC because they are trailing, OH because they probably think they have it won and are overconfident)

[dspNY]

Clinton is going back to Ohio the last Sunday before the election so obviously her campaign still thinks Ohio is very close and winnable

[dspNY]

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https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/794301565234511876?lang=de

After the early vote window ends? Wasting his time

[dspNY]

no trips to Colorado from both, so internal polls are confident that Hillary is safe there

trump mail from today:


https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794318179312889857

Those jokers think they are ahead in Maine? Not CD-2, but the entire state? Now I know their internal polling is a joke

[dspNY]

Last-minute addition to the RNC-Trump coordinated ad buy: ARIZONA
https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/794657746972975104?lang=de

Their strategists even admitted to Harwood that Arizona was tight so this confirms that Arizona could go blue on a good day

[dspNY]

Last-minute addition to the RNC-Trump coordinated ad buy: ARIZONA
https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/794657746972975104?lang=de

On top of that, Bernie goes back to AZ on Sunday

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/794571678164586496

[dspNY]

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It looks like he's going all in on Michigan.

That means they're pretty sure PA is going to Clinton. They have to flip something else, why not try Michigan since they're throwing spaghetti at the wall

[dspNY]

Trump is apparently going back to OH now.

@ZekeJMiller  40s41 seconds ago

Trump’s tentative E-Day schedule per campaign: PA, MI, OH, NC, NH, then party in NYC.

If you're actually campaigning when the polls are open, you are losing. Dukakis did this in 1988

[dspNY]

Matthew Dowd things that Clinton is head-faking Trump with the Michigan attention to take his eyes off Ohio and Florida

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/795350772687011840