UT: Y2 Analytics- Tie

[GeorgiaModerate]

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?

Probably more like 0.001%, but you can certainly dream.

[MasterJedi]

Would love for McMullin to either win or flip the state to Clinton to humiliate Trump further.

[RI]

Another interesting point: Utah looks more like a European parliamentary election than a statewide presidential race

True, but only this circle because of the Republican candidate. Usually, UT is one of the strongest - if not the strongest - GOP state in presidential elections. W, McCain and Romney got around 70% each.

Obama got 34% in Utah in 2008. I think the 26% Trump got in this poll is a floor for him, so if Clinton can get to 35% a plurality win is possible. Something like:

Clinton 35
McMullin 30
Trump 26
Johnson 8
Stein 1

Otherwise I think McMullin! is a slight favorite to win

Clinton isn't getting 35% though. Her ceiling in Utah is much lower than Obama's was. Plus she hasn't polled above 27% there since July.

[dspNY]

This map is now possible:

Clinton/Kaine 375 EVs
Trump/Pence 157 EVs
McMullin/Finn 6 EVs

[Seriously?]

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?

That would be like Kasich getting the Republican nomination for winning Ohio. A dream of liberal Republicans, but a pipe dream.

If the election goes to the House, Trump wins. Republicans have more state delegations.

Depending on the makeup of the Senate, you could theoretically get VP Kaine.

[Vosem]

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?

That would be like Kasich getting the Republican nomination for winning Ohio. A dream of liberal Republicans, but a pipe dream.

If the election goes to the House, Trump wins. Republicans have more state delegations.

Depending on the makeup of the Senate, you could theoretically get VP Kaine.

If the election goes to the House, then the Senate is almost certainly a Republican hold, and elects VP Pence. There are too many #NeverTrump House Republicans for Trump to possibly carry it, but there are also too many Trump loyalists for anyone to. There would be no winner and Pence would win the election. (I can provide a long version of this with likely House election results and names of #NeverTrump Republicans, but a quick look at Wikipedia would provide the same thing).

Any Republican could win in the House. But Trump cannot. And McMullin isn't running as a Republican, so that option is right out.

[Seriously?]

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?

That would be like Kasich getting the Republican nomination for winning Ohio. A dream of liberal Republicans, but a pipe dream.

If the election goes to the House, Trump wins. Republicans have more state delegations.

Depending on the makeup of the Senate, you could theoretically get VP Kaine.

If the election goes to the House, then the Senate is almost certainly a Republican hold, and elects VP Pence. There are too many #NeverTrump House Republicans for Trump to possibly carry it, but there are also too many Trump loyalists for anyone to. There would be no winner and Pence would win the election. (I can provide a long version of this with likely House election results and names of #NeverTrump Republicans, but a quick look at Wikipedia would provide the same thing).

Any Republican could win in the House. But Trump cannot. And McMullin isn't running as a Republican, so that option is right out.

The Constitution gives one vote to each state, not proportional based on number of Reps in the delegation. In that scenario, Trump will take the majority of state delegations and win the Presidency, either by states voting as to whom the people voted for or voting as partisans.

The smaller rural states trend Republican.

The Constitution limits the choices to the top three contenders. So likely, it will be Trump, Hillary or Johnson in that scenario. McMuffin is poling nowhere near Johnson (or even Stein) right now. (unless they are talking "top 3 contenders by EV," the language from house.gov is unclear.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source: http://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?

That would be like Kasich getting the Republican nomination for winning Ohio. A dream of liberal Republicans, but a pipe dream.

If the election goes to the House, Trump wins. Republicans have more state delegations.

Depending on the makeup of the Senate, you could theoretically get VP Kaine.

If the election goes to the House, then the Senate is almost certainly a Republican hold, and elects VP Pence. There are too many #NeverTrump House Republicans for Trump to possibly carry it, but there are also too many Trump loyalists for anyone to. There would be no winner and Pence would win the election. (I can provide a long version of this with likely House election results and names of #NeverTrump Republicans, but a quick look at Wikipedia would provide the same thing).

Any Republican could win in the House. But Trump cannot. And McMullin isn't running as a Republican, so that option is right out.

The Constitution gives one vote to each state, not proportional based on number of Reps in the delegation. In that scenario, Trump will take the majority of state delegations and win the Presidency, either by states voting as to whom the people voted for or voting as partisans.

The smaller rural states trend Republican.

The Constitution limits the choices to the top three contenders. So likely, it will be Trump, Hillary or Johnson in that scenario. McMuffin is poling nowhere near Johnson (or even Stein) right now.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source: http://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/

In this scenario, it would be Trump, Clinton, and McMullin, as he would have 6 electoral votes to Johnson's 0 (or even just 5 if he somehow won NM).

[Mr. Smith]

At this rate, Sanders would be leading in this state if it were him, Obama '08 would be running away with votes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This map is now possible:

Clinton/Kaine 375 EVs
Trump/Pence 157 EVs
McMullin/Finn 6 EVs

It's almost the as my prediction from Sunday:

Only real difference is that I still have Maine-2 in the Trump column.

[Vosem]

My dream scenario would be for McMullin to win Utah, force an EC deadlock, and get the House to elect him president.  Maybe only a 0.1% chance, but I can dream, right?

That would be like Kasich getting the Republican nomination for winning Ohio. A dream of liberal Republicans, but a pipe dream.

If the election goes to the House, Trump wins. Republicans have more state delegations.

Depending on the makeup of the Senate, you could theoretically get VP Kaine.

If the election goes to the House, then the Senate is almost certainly a Republican hold, and elects VP Pence. There are too many #NeverTrump House Republicans for Trump to possibly carry it, but there are also too many Trump loyalists for anyone to. There would be no winner and Pence would win the election. (I can provide a long version of this with likely House election results and names of #NeverTrump Republicans, but a quick look at Wikipedia would provide the same thing).

Any Republican could win in the House. But Trump cannot. And McMullin isn't running as a Republican, so that option is right out.

The Constitution gives one vote to each state, not proportional based on number of Reps in the delegation. In that scenario, Trump will take the majority of state delegations and win the Presidency, either by states voting as to whom the people voted for or voting as partisans.

The smaller rural states trend Republican.

The Constitution limits the choices to the top three contenders. So likely, it will be Trump, Hillary or Johnson in that scenario. McMuffin is poling nowhere near Johnson (or even Stein) right now. (unless they are talking "top 3 contenders by EV," the language from house.gov is unclear.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source: http://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/

You are correct about the method. Let me go through the math for you:

- Republicans currently hold 33 state delegation majorities, but they're overstretched from their 2014 victories. Three of those -- Iowa (Blum), Colorado (Coffman), and Nevada (Hardy) are probably lost. This is the part of the calculation with the most guesswork; some other delegations are iffy, while those might hold. Anyway, down to 30 delegations with R majorities seems reasonable.
- Next, take away delegations where most members are #NeverTrump. This would be Utah (all 4), Alaska (Don Young), and Idaho (Mike Simpson is 50%). He is now down to 27.
- In other states, Democrats+NeverTrump Republicans are a majority; such states would deadlock and not be able to cast a vote. These include Arizona (R 5-4, McSally is anti-Trump, 4-4-1); Nebraska (R 2-1; Fortenberry is anti-Trump, so 1-1-1); Wisconsin (R 5-3, Grothman is anti-Trump, and I doubt Ryan would be inclined to back him either, 5-4-1); Michigan (R 9-5; Huizenga, Amash, Upton all anti-Trump; 6-5-3); Virginia (currently R 8-3, probably R 7-4 after the election; Comstock and Brat are both anti-Trump; 5-4-2); that makes 22.

You can quibble with some of those; I'm sure there are some who would bend to Trump for their reelection, and there are probably others who may have said publicly that they back him who would not actually do so in a vote. Either way, it's hard to come up with a count that doesn't leave him somewhere in the low 20s.

The Constitution gives one vote to each state, not proportional based on number of Reps in the delegation. In that scenario, Trump will take the majority of state delegations and win the Presidency, either by states voting as to whom the people voted for or voting as partisans.

The smaller rural states trend Republican.

Amusingly, this is actually what kills him. He probably gets the support from a majority of House members in such a vote. It's just that Trump opponents are disproportionately concentrated in small rural states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, or Nebraska, and so he wouldn't have a majority of delegations.

[Lyin' Steve]

The lack of an article on 538 addressing McMullin's chances and effect on #BattlegroundUtah is hard proof that Nate Silver doesn't read Atlas.

[ProudModerate2]

Would love for McMullin to either win or flip the state to Clinton to humiliate Trump further.

Yes, Yes !

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

a 4-way race in a state would be so exciting.

[Donnie]

LOL, the green color looks cool on the map. GO OTHER!

[Lachi]

The poll has been incorrectly entered, it has
Dem 26
Rep 26
Ind 36

[Vosem]

The poll has been incorrectly entered, it has
Dem 26
Rep 26
Ind 36

The convention on Atlas is to add "others", nonsensical as that is, so the poll has indeed been added correctly.

[ElectionAtlas]

I will be working to update the script to account for a strong third candidate in addition to "other", to correctly reflect the lead in the polling.
Enjoy,
Dave

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I will be working to update the script to account for a strong third candidate in addition to "other", to correctly reflect the lead in the polling.
Enjoy,
Dave

He has spoken

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The lack of an article on 538 addressing McMullin's chances and effect on #BattlegroundUtah is hard proof that Nate Silver doesn't read Atlas.

Harry Enten does though. He thinks that we'll use green for McMullin. https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/786085100593307648

[/]

The lack of an article on 538 addressing McMullin's chances and effect on #BattlegroundUtah is hard proof that Nate Silver doesn't read Atlas.

Harry Enten does though. He thinks that we'll use green for McMullin. https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/786085100593307648

Of course we will.

[Angel of Death]

In what universe does Trump lose Utah, but Clinton not get an absolute majority in the EC?

[GeorgiaModerate]

In what universe does Trump lose Utah, but Clinton not get an absolute majority in the EC?

Atlas specializes in alternate electoral universes.

[PaperKooper]

In what universe does Trump lose Utah, but Clinton not get an absolute majority in the EC?

In all of the most politically exciting scenarios!

This map is surprisingly plausible.  All you need is a small bias in polling against Trump and big pro-Johnson/McMullin surge in NM/UT. 

[Crumpets]

In what universe does Trump lose Utah, but Clinton not get an absolute majority in the EC?

In all of the most politically exciting scenarios!

This map is surprisingly plausible.  All you need is a small bias in polling against Trump and big pro-Johnson/McMullin surge in NM/UT. 

If you stood at the Four Corners, you'd be in four states voting for four different candidates at the same time.