Who will win #BattlegroundUtah?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Who do you think will win

[Crumpets]

As of now, McMullin. But I look at the SD and KS races in 2014 and feel slightly discouraged.

[ProudModerate2]

I believe that if trump and McMullin split the Republican electorate enough, that Clinton has a chance of winning it.
PS: I hope that either Hillary or McMullin win it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Chance of winning:

McMullin- 40%
Trump- 35%
Clinton- 25%

Sorry, Johnson won't win it

[Hammy]

But I look at the SD and KS races in 2014 and feel slightly discouraged.

To be fair, midterms always have lower turnout than presidential years, and that always benefits Republicans.

[PeteB]

Unless McMullin or Johnson get a direct LDS endorsement, they will split the votes, and Clinton wins UT. Trump is toast unless the other three split things so evenly that he ekes through.

[ursulahx]

I'm expecting the national polls to narrow, and I think Trump will manage enough grudging votes on the day. But I wouldn't be surprised to see this go to Clinton or MacGuffin.*

[*Wikipedia: "In fiction, a MacGuffin is a plot device in the form of some goal, desired object, or other motivator that the protagonist pursues, often with little or no narrative explanation."]

[Erc]

Right now, this seems to be a three-way race, with all three candidates seriously contesting the race (sorry, Gary).

But as we get more polls and one candidate begins to fall behind (or pull ahead), might we see some tactical voting in Utah in November?  If the primaries showed us anything, it's that Americans don't really know how to vote tactically, but let's think about each category anyway (assuming McMullin is in the top 2, which is not guaranteed):

Trump -> McMullin: Anti-Hillary voters; non-Mormon Republicans who think McMullin may be the best way to stop a Clinton upset.  Also difficult to distinguish from the general defection to McMullin among Mormons or sane Republicans.

Trump -> Clinton: An odd category.  Really angry Trumpists who A) accept that Trump will lose Utah and B) prioritize punishing traitors over beating Hillary.  Unlikely to be many of these; also difficult to distinguish from folks who are switching entirely due to pussygate.

Clinton -> McMullin: Democrats who think that McMullin has the best shot at beating Trump; may not have been thrilled about Clinton in the first place.

Clinton -> Trump: Democrats who think Clinton will lose the state, but want to take a shot at the (Mormon) Establishment??

Regardless, it seems likely that McMullin would be favored by tactical voting.

[Lyin' Steve]

Has Romney endorsed McMullin yet?
If Romney and Huntsman both endorse and campaign for him (unlikely, given Jon Huntsman's seething one-sided hatred for Romney), he would win.
Also, guys like Chaffetz, Herbert, Lee, and the other #NeverTrumps could get out there and say, you can't have Utah buddy.

[RI]

Either McMullin or Trump. The Mormon vote will coalesce around one of them eventually, probably the former.

[Mr. Smith]

For now, I'm guessing McMullin is like Anderson in the Northeast in 1980 or Perot in Maine '92.

As such he either:

A) Just brings trump down to the 30's for a victory in the state. But ultimately trump is (R) and Hillary is the worst type of (D) for Utah, and that decides things.

or

B) We get a Frank Moss situation, in which the right is split enough to let in Clinton.


I'm banking on A.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

#McMuffinmentum

[Figueira]

I'm going to play it safe and guess Trump, but it could go any of three ways. I don't see Johnson winning.

[AGA]

It could go to either Clinton, Trump, or McMullin. If I had to pick, I would say Trump, but his chances in this state in particular have decreased greatly since the scandal.

[rob in cal]

   If Clinton somehow won the state and it put her over the top for a victory, it would be hilarious to see the emergence of #I regret I voted for Hilary  once she gets that fifth liberal justice on the court

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Are there any polls or anything that show McMuffin with even 5% in Utah?

[RI]

Are there any polls or anything that show McMuffin with even 5% in Utah?

Every poll since the end of August?

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Are there any polls or anything that show McMuffin with even 5% in Utah?

Every poll since the end of August?

Yeah I googled but I only see data that came up in the last couple weeks and all 4 candidates are pretty close

[LLR]

Are there any polls or anything that show McMuffin with even 5% in Utah?

Every poll since the end of August?

Yeah I googled but I only see data that came up in the last couple weeks and all 4 candidates are pretty close

So how does that not negate your first point?

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Are there any polls or anything that show McMuffin with even 5% in Utah?

Every poll since the end of August?

Yeah I googled but I only see data that came up in the last couple weeks and all 4 candidates are pretty close

So how does that not negate your first point?

I googled after I posted the question, so yes it does negate the first point. I just hadn't seen anything come up about the guy in a while, so I'm surprised he's got that much traction.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

McMullin should really spend money on ads here, and campaign heavily here.

[/]

McMullin has never even led in a poll. What the heck?

[Simfan34]

I think, for as much as I may be partaking in it myself, we are getting a little too swept up in the McMullin hype. There's only been one poll (two, if you count the-- strangely nearly identical-- Google Analytics survey) showing him to be close. I think Clinton remains the most likely non-R to win here. But it also should be kept in mind that there's a virtually 100% chance there will be more and worse Trump scandals, which will either not hurt him at all or cost him another ~5 points in the polls. In Utah, as Mormons apparently still have actual moral principles, it will likely cost him more.

But who knows.

[Thomas D]

Looking more like McMullin with each passing minute tonight.

[Mr. Morden]

Does anyone want to do a county level prediction map for Utah?