One round presidential elections sucks
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Author Topic: One round presidential elections sucks  (Read 916 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« on: October 12, 2016, 02:10:53 PM »

Allow me to demonstrate:

Mexico:

Enrique Peña Nieto won the 2012 Mexican presidential election with 38.15%

Felipe Calderón won the 2006 Mexican presidential election with 35.89%

Philippines

Rodrigo Duterte won the 2016 Filipino presidential election with 39.01%

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo won the 2004 Filipino presidential election with 39.99%

Joseph Estrada won the 1998 Filipino presidential election with 39.86%

But the undisputed winner would be Fidel Ramos, winning the 1992 election with... 23.58% Seriously, elected with less than 1/4 of the vote.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2016, 02:12:49 PM »

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=50&year=2010&f=0&off=5&elect=1
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2016, 02:45:55 PM »

Well I have

http://www.indiavotes.com/ac/details/60/28906/191

From the 2007 Uttar Pradseh assembly election with a winner winning 18.1% of the vote.  There are plenty other examples in India elections similar to this.  This might not even be the lowest just the lowest I can find within 5 minutes.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2016, 02:54:31 PM »

IRV/AV/whatever they're calling it this week works best for Presidential elections, but afaik only India and Ireland use it for that
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2016, 02:55:45 PM »


I'd love to be proud that Shumlin won the primary on the strength of the county where I grew up and that he represented my hometown in the state legislature, but he just turned out to be so disappointing.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2016, 03:11:01 PM »

IRV/AV/whatever they're calling it this week works best for Presidential elections, but afaik only India and Ireland use it for that

I believe President of India is elected indirectly, right?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2016, 03:19:36 PM »

This is one of my favorite examples of President getting elected with mere 22.2%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_general_election,_2003

Of course it was only because Menem, who actually led the first round (24.5%) withdrew.


Chile used a system similar to states electing Governors by legislature in case of no majority (like recently in Vermont), as evident with the famous 1970 election. Allende got the first place with 36.61% (against Alessandri's 35.27%) and was then formally elected by the Congress.


Estonia uses a somewhat similar system, although an indirect one. If the President is not elected by the Parliament by 3 rounds, it goes to so-called "Electoral Body". Lennart Meri lost all parliamentary ballots, but prevailed in the latter.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2016, 03:30:53 PM »

   I think the Chile example is the most dramatic.  If it had gone to a runoff, a pretty good chance of an Alessandri victory, and no coup three years later.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2016, 04:04:52 PM »

I ran for President of my fan club and won with only 1 vote.  Cheesy (sorry)
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warandwar
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2016, 09:04:34 PM »

   I think the Chile example is the most dramatic.  If it had gone to a runoff, a pretty good chance of an Alessandri victory, and no coup three years later.

What?? Why do you think that there was "a pretty good chance of an Alessandri victory"?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2016, 10:15:23 PM »

  Alessandri would have needed just a little over half of the voters of Tomic, the Christian Democratic candidate.  Not saying this would have happened for sure, but I've always thought Alessandri would have had a good chance doing so, especially if the electorate was focused on just him vs Allende.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2016, 11:48:31 PM »


I'd love to be proud that Shumlin won the primary on the strength of the county where I grew up and that he represented my hometown in the state legislature, but he just turned out to be so disappointing.

What has his tenure been like apart from the failure to pass universal healthcare (which I'm not inclined to blame him for - the hurdles to such a major policy change, especially for a small State, are immense)?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2016, 12:41:20 AM »


I'd love to be proud that Shumlin won the primary on the strength of the county where I grew up and that he represented my hometown in the state legislature, but he just turned out to be so disappointing.

What has his tenure been like apart from the failure to pass universal healthcare (which I'm not inclined to blame him for - the hurdles to such a major policy change, especially for a small State, are immense)?

That's the thing. There's not much else.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2016, 10:39:01 AM »


I'd love to be proud that Shumlin won the primary on the strength of the county where I grew up and that he represented my hometown in the state legislature, but he just turned out to be so disappointing.

What has his tenure been like apart from the failure to pass universal healthcare (which I'm not inclined to blame him for - the hurdles to such a major policy change, especially for a small State, are immense)?

That's the thing. There's not much else.

Oh, I see. That's disappointing indeed.
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aross
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2016, 11:00:15 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2016, 11:17:17 AM by aross »

Felipe Calderón won the 2006 Mexican presidential election with 35.89%
Well...
Or in other words, you can fight the edit war on that one.

Germany actually has some really quite horrific FPTP results behind that MMP facade, they just happen not to matter. I wonder if it might instinctively discourage some of the electoral reform types who seem to be going for it over STV in a lot of places recently.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2016, 11:04:08 AM »

Germany actually has some really quite horrific FPTP behind that MMP facade, they just happen not to matter. I wonder if it might instinctively discourage some of the electoral reform types who seem to be going for it over STV in a lot of places recently.

Weimar Republic had really weird presidential election system. "No majority? OK, we'll do another round with the same candidates" and "you can drop out and be replaced by someone else."
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2016, 11:04:50 AM »


I'd love to be proud that Shumlin won the primary on the strength of the county where I grew up and that he represented my hometown in the state legislature, but he just turned out to be so disappointing.

What has his tenure been like apart from the failure to pass universal healthcare (which I'm not inclined to blame him for - the hurdles to such a major policy change, especially for a small State, are immense)?

That's the thing. There's not much else.

Oh, I see. That's disappointing indeed.

The best thing about him is that he's very serious about trying to confront the opioid crisis, but he's met with practically no success.
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Lumine
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2016, 03:35:37 PM »

 Alessandri would have needed just a little over half of the voters of Tomic, the Christian Democratic candidate.  Not saying this would have happened for sure, but I've always thought Alessandri would have had a good chance doing so, especially if the electorate was focused on just him vs Allende.

While Tomic was on the left side of the Christian Democrats, it is indeed a fair assumption to make that a majority of those voters would have preferred Alessandri to Allende. It wouldn't be the sort of landslide Frei got against Allende in 64', but Alessandri would have been favored had there been a second round due to a large part of the electorate fearing or distrusting the idea of a socialist government.

Support for the left (Unidad Popular) grew dramatically from 70' to 71' to the point in which a bare majority of the public actually voted for UP during the 71' municipal elections (the high point of Allende), but his coalition was certainly not strong enough to get a majority by the time of the Presidential election.

Indeed, you can also make the argument that a second round would have also shifted the outcome in 1946 (where the two right-wing candidates won a majority, but were defeated by the left-wing candidate with 40%) and 1958 (where Alessandri himself was elected 31% of the vote). But of course, 1970 is the most significant example. We're still dealing with the consecuences of that one.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2016, 10:39:42 AM »

Chile 1970 is an interesting paradox.

1. Allende won the democratic election as per the book.
2. Allende had a little popular mandate.
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