The rise and rise of Evan McMullin (formerly Egg McMuffin)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

This would definitely be a good stepping stone for a future senate or gubernatorial run. Even better if he wins.

NBC News just put out a poll for UT.

Clinton (D) 26%
Trump (R) 26%
McMullin (I) 24%

Eegads!

I didn't see a thread (nor was google helpful). Do you have a link?

I have seen the Y2 poll with McMullin at 22% (Clinton and Trump also tied at 26%).

[Badger]

Let's make this perfectly clear. the absolute best McMullen can realistically do would be if he gets paid public endorsement or other show of support from Romney, in which case he might, repeat might, drawing of modern too Conservative Republican voters to throw Utah to Hillary. Maybe. Any talk of McMullen carrying Utah is grossly unrealistic

[Young Conservative]

Let's make this perfectly clear. the absolute best McMullen can realistically do would be if he gets paid public endorsement or other show of support from Romney, in which case he might, repeat might, drawing of modern too Conservative Republican voters to throw Utah to Hillary. Maybe. Any talk of McMullen carrying Utah is grossly unrealistic

Hillary has a ceiling in utah under 30. Mcmuling has a ceiling of under 40, as does Trump. 40>30. It is plausible.

[Vosem]

Let's make this perfectly clear. the absolute best McMullen can realistically do would be if he gets paid public endorsement or other show of support from Romney, in which case he might, repeat might, drawing of modern too Conservative Republican voters to throw Utah to Hillary. Maybe. Any talk of McMullen carrying Utah is grossly unrealistic

A bold prediction, but I hope you realize you're explicitly saying the polling is massively incorrect.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even if he wins 538 EVs and 99% of the vote and goes on to become the greatest President in US history, he is and always will be Egg McMuffin.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Also, considering he volunteered for the UN in Amman, he's certainly going to know where Aleppo is.

He could probably tell you where to get the best falafel in Aleppo.

[Eraserhead]

Hillary's people should have helped this guy get on the ballot in more than eleven states.

[Badger]

Let's make this perfectly clear. the absolute best McMullen can realistically do would be if he gets paid public endorsement or other show of support from Romney, in which case he might, repeat might, drawing of modern too Conservative Republican voters to throw Utah to Hillary. Maybe. Any talk of McMullen carrying Utah is grossly unrealistic

A bold prediction, but I hope you realize you're explicitly saying the polling is massively incorrect.

 I saw the most recent poll showing him competitive after making my post. That said, I will still stand by my statement. I'll slightly expanded to say that if major State Republicans come forward to support him even if for some reason Romney stands on the sidelines, he still has that chance. That also said, third-party candidates inevitably recede come election day. He needs the timing of big-name State Republicans to come out for him in the next couple weeks or he won't win.

[Fargobison]

Hillary's people should have helped this guy get on the ballot in more than eleven states.

Well in some states he was blocked, for example Rick Scott made sure he didn't get on the FL ballot.

[Arbitrage1980]

Makes me wonder how David French or Tom Coburn could have done had they announced earlier, or how Gary johnson could have done if could act normal

Coburn has health issues, French is too unknown. Yeah, if Johnson could have run a solid campaign or if Weld were at the top of the ticket, they could have gotten 20-25% of the popular vote and quite possibly throw the election to the House.

My fantasy earlier in the year was Romney running as an independent. He thought about it, but I think he's genuinely exhausted from running and wants to spend time with his family.

[America Needs R'hllor]

An interesting thing is to look at Google Trends for how much did people search for the five major presidential candidates in Utah.


Notice the surge Evan McMullin (purple) gets after Trump's recording came out, and especially after this poll. It's even more stark with only 3rd party candidates: (ignore red and blue. I put random unknown asoiaf characters as red and blue to let Johnson and Stein keep their colours.)

[Lyin' Steve]

An interesting thing is to look at Google Trends for how much did people search for the five major presidential candidates in Utah.


Notice the surge Evan McMullin (purple) gets after Trump's recording came out, and especially after this poll. It's even more stark with only 3rd party candidates: (ignore red and blue. I put random unknown asoiaf characters as red and blue to let Johnson and Stein keep their colours.)

So McMullin now has more traction than Johnson/Stein combined?  Fantastic if true

[Seriously?]

In the unlikely event he wins utah and the election is close enough that the electoral college gets deadlocked I can easily see the house voting for him over Trump

And I can see monkeys flying out of my ass. That will NEVER happen. First, he's not winning Utah. Second, Republicans would cease to exist as a party if the party's nominee won the popular vote and they defected and voted for the former CIA agent or whomever that #nevertrump loser is.

[Simfan34]

Makes me wonder how David French or Tom Coburn could have done had they announced earlier, or how Gary johnson could have done if could act normal

Coburn has health issues, French is too unknown. Yeah, if Johnson could have run a solid campaign or if Weld were at the top of the ticket, they could have gotten 20-25% of the popular vote and quite possibly throw the election to the House.

My fantasy earlier in the year was Romney running as an independent. He thought about it, but I think he's genuinely exhausted from running and wants to spend time with his family.

...and this guy?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If the House fails to elect President and Senate fails to elect Vice President, there's a way for Ryan to maneuver himself to the White House.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Makes me wonder how David French or Tom Coburn could have done had they announced earlier, or how Gary johnson could have done if could act normal

Coburn has health issues, French is too unknown. Yeah, if Johnson could have run a solid campaign or if Weld were at the top of the ticket, they could have gotten 20-25% of the popular vote and quite possibly throw the election to the House.

My fantasy earlier in the year was Romney running as an independent. He thought about it, but I think he's genuinely exhausted from running and wants to spend time with his family.

...and this guy?

IIRC He's a National Review journalist who Bill Kristol nominated and tried to get conservative and neo-con endorsements but couldn't even find a VP candidate
He gave up back in June

[America Needs R'hllor]

An interesting thing is to look at Google Trends for how much did people search for the five major presidential candidates in Utah.


Notice the surge Evan McMullin (purple) gets after Trump's recording came out, and especially after this poll. It's even more stark with only 3rd party candidates: (ignore red and blue. I put random unknown asoiaf characters as red and blue to let Johnson and Stein keep their colours.)

So McMullin now has more traction than Johnson/Stein combined?  Fantastic if true

Well, it's probably still just a surge because of the excitement from the polls. But if McMullin manages to keep hype about him high by getting endorsements or new polls, he may keep large traction in Utah.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I'm kind of hoping McMuffin wins Utah now and Johnson wins NM. Then, maybe we'll have the scenario where either these two are chosen by Congress, which is much preferable.

[Mr. Morden]

Like I said in the Monmouth poll thread, I think the folks here claiming that it's "necessary" for him to get certain endorsements in order to at least finish in the top two in Utah are off the mark.  The most important thing is for him to get media exposure, so voters actually know who he is.  That Monmouth poll has a whopping 66% of voters having no opinion of him, yet he's still at 20% support.  The ideal scenario for him is to have his strong poll #s generate a bunch of news stories about him in Utah, leading much/most of that 66% to become aware of his existence, and then for a respectable chunk of those people to decide to vote for him.

I mean, Trump is at ~70% unfavorable in Utah, so there are a lot of potential voters for McMullin to pick off.  That can happen even without any advertising or endorsements.

[Speed of Sound]

Like I said in the Monmouth poll thread, I think the folks here claiming that it's "necessary" for him to get certain endorsements in order to at least finish in the top two in Utah are off the mark.  The most important thing is for him to get media exposure, so voters actually know who he is.  That Monmouth poll has a whopping 66% of voters having no opinion of him, yet he's still at 20% support.  The ideal scenario for him is to have his strong poll #s generate a bunch of news stories about him in Utah, leading much/most of that 66% to become aware of his existence, and then for a respectable chunk of those people to decide to vote for him.

I mean, Trump is at ~70% unfavorable in Utah, so there are a lot of potential voters for McMullin to pick off.  That can happen even without any advertising or endorsements.

I agree completely and am really surprised that people are so bearish on his odds. We've talked a ton about Trump or Clinton's ability to swing voters based on not wanting to vote for the other, and those two are miserably unfavorable. This guy has little dirt, is so far generally seen favorably, and his recognition can only go up. He's an "independent conservative", which should be more attractive than a Libertarian or Democrat. I think he will get at least a chunk of those establishment endorsements, but I don't buy that he needs them.

[BaldEagle1991]

NBC News just put out a poll for UT.

Clinton (D) 26%
Trump (R) 26%
McMullin (I) 24%

Eegads!

Forget Texas being the next Florida, Utah is.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Like I said in the Monmouth poll thread, I think the folks here claiming that it's "necessary" for him to get certain endorsements in order to at least finish in the top two in Utah are off the mark.  The most important thing is for him to get media exposure, so voters actually know who he is.  That Monmouth poll has a whopping 66% of voters having no opinion of him, yet he's still at 20% support.  The ideal scenario for him is to have his strong poll #s generate a bunch of news stories about him in Utah, leading much/most of that 66% to become aware of his existence, and then for a respectable chunk of those people to decide to vote for him.

I mean, Trump is at ~70% unfavorable in Utah, so there are a lot of potential voters for McMullin to pick off.  That can happen even without any advertising or endorsements.

That might be true, but endorsements from top Utah politicians or Mitt Romney would really help in generating these news.

[OneJ]

McMullin is added to 538's Utah forecast!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So if McMullin were to indeed win Utah, how many of his 6 electors would cast their electoral votes for VP for Mindy Flinn and how many would vote for Nathan Johnson (who may or may not be a real person)? Anyone know if Utah has faithless elector laws. It'd be hilarious if that's how we finally got to see one of those challenged in court.

Not that it matters.  His running mate won't be in the Top Two which is what the Senate is limited to choosing from.

[ApatheticAustrian]

The Salt Lake County Republican Party had an interesting night. Sadly, not my news to break. But, I'm proud of them
https://twitter.com/JeremyBRoberts/status/786762138123632641

be prepared