The rise and rise of Evan McMullin (formerly Egg McMuffin)

[DINGO Joe]

I would love a Ron Paul "It's Happening" GIF with Ronald McDonald in place of Ron Paul.

[DINGO Joe]

Not quite what I wanted, but it'll have to do.

[7,052,770]

Is McMullin campaigning in Idaho and Arizona?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Is McMullin campaigning in Idaho and Arizona?

I think he is or will be a write in in Arizona. Not sure that it would be worth it there.

Idaho would be worth getting a few tens of thousands of popular votes. Hitting up BYU-Idaho in Rexburg would be a good move. Maybe Idaho Falls, Pocatello, and a few smaller towns in Southeast Idaho as well. It would be convenient and cheap for him to go there from Utah. He could win some counties in Idaho. Madison County (home of BYU-Idaho) went something like 93% for Romney to a bit under 6% for Obama. That would be at least 12,000 votes that he could harness. Trump didn't break double digits in the primary there.

[Badger]

Like I said in the Monmouth poll thread, I think the folks here claiming that it's "necessary" for him to get certain endorsements in order to at least finish in the top two in Utah are off the mark.  The most important thing is for him to get media exposure, so voters actually know who he is.  That Monmouth poll has a whopping 66% of voters having no opinion of him, yet he's still at 20% support.  The ideal scenario for him is to have his strong poll #s generate a bunch of news stories about him in Utah, leading much/most of that 66% to become aware of his existence, and then for a respectable chunk of those people to decide to vote for him.

I mean, Trump is at ~70% unfavorable in Utah, so there are a lot of potential voters for McMullin to pick off.  That can happen even without any advertising or endorsements.

That might be true, but endorsements from top Utah politicians or Mitt Romney would really help in generating these news.

Bingo

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Over/Under on McMullin getting 1,000,000 votes?

I'm guessing under, myself.

                Votes cast in 2012    McMullin 2016 Prediction
Utah 35%                 1017       356
Idaho 8%                   652         52
Colorado 2%             2569         51
New Mexico 1.5%        784         12 
Minnesota 2%           2936         59
Iowa 1%                   1582         16
Arkansas 0.5%          1069           5
Louisiana 0.5%          1994         10
Kentucky 0.5%          1797           9
S. Carolina 0.5%       1964          10
Virginia 1.5%            3854          58

Remaining 0.25%  108,867        272 write in

(Preceding numbers are in 1,000's)

910,000 total votes for McMullin using 2012 numbers and that is a rather bullish (perhaps bordering on bull****) estimate.

I'm guessing that there will be more votes cast than in 2012, but I think McMullin would still struggle to get 1%. It would be crazy to have someone win less than one percent nationwide (and potentially be in fifth place) while winning a state.

[Mr. Morden]

Like I said in the Monmouth poll thread, I think the folks here claiming that it's "necessary" for him to get certain endorsements in order to at least finish in the top two in Utah are off the mark.  The most important thing is for him to get media exposure, so voters actually know who he is.  That Monmouth poll has a whopping 66% of voters having no opinion of him, yet he's still at 20% support.  The ideal scenario for him is to have his strong poll #s generate a bunch of news stories about him in Utah, leading much/most of that 66% to become aware of his existence, and then for a respectable chunk of those people to decide to vote for him.

I mean, Trump is at ~70% unfavorable in Utah, so there are a lot of potential voters for McMullin to pick off.  That can happen even without any advertising or endorsements.

That might be true, but endorsements from top Utah politicians or Mitt Romney would really help in generating these news.

Of course.  It would absolutely be a boon to him.  I'm just saying, he can do it even without endorsements.  He can do it even without spending money on ads.  What he needs is free media.  And I'm just saying, in principle, the very fact that he has these poll #s now could itself set up a free media positive feedback loop for him: The news media jumps on his strong #s, which exposes more people to McMullin, which leads to higher poll #s, etc.

[rob in cal]

 If I was a Clinton supporter in Utah, I'd be thinking of hopping aboard the Mcmullin train.  There must be plenty of them thinking this.

[Fargobison]

#McMentum in Idaho...



https://twitter.com/johnclaybrook/status/787098943821787136

[Dr. Arch]

#McMentum in Idaho...



https://twitter.com/johnclaybrook/status/787098943821787136

O-O

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

#McMentum in Idaho...



https://twitter.com/johnclaybrook/status/787098943821787136

O-O

Jesus Christ (of Latter Day Saints)

He's going to win some counties in Idaho for sure. Madison County will be fascinating to watch. Going from 93% Republican to probably less than 33%.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

And now he has his own Dank Meme Stash:

https://www.facebook.com/McMullinDankMemes/

[Beezer]

The people look so excited in this campaign shot...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Evan McMullin in Rexburg.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

[Picture]

Evan McMullin in Rexburg.

Rexburg is the home of BYU-Idaho. Rexburg is in Madison County, which voted for Romney 93-6 in 2012. I'm thinking that McMullin is going to win some counties up there in Idaho as well.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

McMullin is almost certainly going to carry Jefferson County and Madison County. He has a shot in Franklin County, Bear Lake County and Caribou County as well. McMullin's strongest county might very well be Madison County, which is very young and filled with university employees, the two Mormon constituencies which are the most anti-Trump, which is why Trump only won 7% of the vote in the GOP primary.

Madison County is unique in that there are loads of ticket-splitting Mormon Republicans, another indication that Trump will really struggle here. Here is an example:

Madison County 2008
McCain 85.2%
Obama 12.5%

Madison County 2010
Otter 61.4%
Allred 33.6%

Madison County 2014
Otter 68.5%
Balukoff 21.7%

LDS Democratic candidates tend to perform relatively well in Madison County relative to their performance in other ultra-LDS counties in Idaho. It's almost always the most Republican county in Idaho in presidential years but it often bucks this trend during statewide races. I'd wager that his is indicative of McMullin strength. Anyone who's willing to vote for a LDS Democrat is going to be very keen on embracing McMullin or, perhaps, Hillary.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

McMullin is almost certainly going to carry Jefferson County and Madison County. He has a shot in Franklin County, Bear Lake County and Caribou County as well. McMullin's strongest county might very well be Madison County, which is very young and filled with university employees, the two Mormon constituencies which are the most anti-Trump, which is why Trump only won 7% of the vote in the GOP primary.

Here's my county prediction map for Idaho. There were a few other counties that I added that I think could vote for McMullin as well.

[Fargobison]

Evan McMullin in Rexburg.

So much McMentum ...We have a movement going on folks...bigly...

Chris Oswalt
‏@cjoswaltNEWS
Over 1,100 people attended @Evan_McMullin's Rexburg event. Tabernacles so packed, police made campaign turn ppl away. @localnews8 @KIDKnews

https://twitter.com/cjoswaltNEWS/status/787345037424074752

[Badger]

we need some polling out of ID stat.

any word whether at least some big GOP names in the state are considering backing him as is rumored in UT?

[ProudModerate2]

Call me silly, but I would bet a million dollars that if we asked America which would you rather have ....
A McMullin, or a McMuffin as our President ?
That the juicy McMuffin would win.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

we need some polling out of ID stat.

Amen. I'd like to see a regional breakdown as well. As shown by my map earlier in the thread, I'd say that his support will be concentrated in the Mormon Southeast.

[Fargobison]

1400 to see McMullin in Boise....



https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/789923978697592832

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am shocked how attractive, self-ironic and seemingly anti-sexist, anti-racist mister mcmuffin is.

where does the GOP hide such people?

[5280]

Preach to the choir. Look at all those former Cruz supporters if it wasn't for Trump.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Like I said in the Monmouth poll thread, I think the folks here claiming that it's "necessary" for him to get certain endorsements in order to at least finish in the top two in Utah are off the mark.  The most important thing is for him to get media exposure, so voters actually know who he is.  That Monmouth poll has a whopping 66% of voters having no opinion of him, yet he's still at 20% support.  The ideal scenario for him is to have his strong poll #s generate a bunch of news stories about him in Utah, leading much/most of that 66% to become aware of his existence, and then for a respectable chunk of those people to decide to vote for him.

I mean, Trump is at ~70% unfavorable in Utah, so there are a lot of potential voters for McMullin to pick off.  That can happen even without any advertising or endorsements.

That might be true, but endorsements from top Utah politicians or Mitt Romney would really help in generating these news.

Bingo