The rise and rise of Evan McMullin (formerly Egg McMuffin)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

This would definitely be a good stepping stone for a future senate or gubernatorial run. Even better if he wins.

NBC News just put out a poll for UT.

Clinton (D) 26%
Trump (R) 26%
McMullin (I) 24%

Eegads!

I didn't see a thread (nor was google helpful). Do you have a link?

I have seen the Y2 poll with McMullin at 22% (Clinton and Trump also tied at 26%).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Is McMullin campaigning in Idaho and Arizona?

I think he is or will be a write in in Arizona. Not sure that it would be worth it there.

Idaho would be worth getting a few tens of thousands of popular votes. Hitting up BYU-Idaho in Rexburg would be a good move. Maybe Idaho Falls, Pocatello, and a few smaller towns in Southeast Idaho as well. It would be convenient and cheap for him to go there from Utah. He could win some counties in Idaho. Madison County (home of BYU-Idaho) went something like 93% for Romney to a bit under 6% for Obama. That would be at least 12,000 votes that he could harness. Trump didn't break double digits in the primary there.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Over/Under on McMullin getting 1,000,000 votes?

I'm guessing under, myself.

                Votes cast in 2012    McMullin 2016 Prediction
Utah 35%                 1017       356
Idaho 8%                   652         52
Colorado 2%             2569         51
New Mexico 1.5%        784         12 
Minnesota 2%           2936         59
Iowa 1%                   1582         16
Arkansas 0.5%          1069           5
Louisiana 0.5%          1994         10
Kentucky 0.5%          1797           9
S. Carolina 0.5%       1964          10
Virginia 1.5%            3854          58

Remaining 0.25%  108,867        272 write in

(Preceding numbers are in 1,000's)

910,000 total votes for McMullin using 2012 numbers and that is a rather bullish (perhaps bordering on bull****) estimate.

I'm guessing that there will be more votes cast than in 2012, but I think McMullin would still struggle to get 1%. It would be crazy to have someone win less than one percent nationwide (and potentially be in fifth place) while winning a state.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

#McMentum in Idaho...



https://twitter.com/johnclaybrook/status/787098943821787136

O-O

Jesus Christ (of Latter Day Saints)

He's going to win some counties in Idaho for sure. Madison County will be fascinating to watch. Going from 93% Republican to probably less than 33%.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

And now he has his own Dank Meme Stash:

https://www.facebook.com/McMullinDankMemes/

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

[Picture]

Evan McMullin in Rexburg.

Rexburg is the home of BYU-Idaho. Rexburg is in Madison County, which voted for Romney 93-6 in 2012. I'm thinking that McMullin is going to win some counties up there in Idaho as well.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

McMullin is almost certainly going to carry Jefferson County and Madison County. He has a shot in Franklin County, Bear Lake County and Caribou County as well. McMullin's strongest county might very well be Madison County, which is very young and filled with university employees, the two Mormon constituencies which are the most anti-Trump, which is why Trump only won 7% of the vote in the GOP primary.

Here's my county prediction map for Idaho. There were a few other counties that I added that I think could vote for McMullin as well.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

we need some polling out of ID stat.

Amen. I'd like to see a regional breakdown as well. As shown by my map earlier in the thread, I'd say that his support will be concentrated in the Mormon Southeast.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Saw some reports that McMullin will have a few Wyoming rallies next week.

Well, he might be able to win Uinta County, at least.

That would be impressive; it will probably be his best county at the very least though. He's only a write in in Wyoming. Wyoming has given thought to write ins though. Back in 2010, a write in for US Senate got about 7% statewide. I could see McMullin hitting 5% or so; he could've had a higher ceiling if he was actually on the ballot.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Saw some reports that McMullin will have a few Wyoming rallies next week.

Well, he might be able to win Uinta County, at least.

That would be impressive; it will probably be his best county at the very least though. He's only a write in in Wyoming. Wyoming has given thought to write ins though. Back in 2010, a write in for US Senate got about 7% statewide. I could see McMullin hitting 5% or so; he could've had a higher ceiling if he was actually on the ballot.

What's really funny to me is that McMullin's platform is probably a lot closer to Wyoming's values than Trump's. Alas, my dear southern neighbors (at least, those outside Teton, Albany, and Sweetwater Counties) practically robo-vote for Republicans in every election, so he wouldn't have much pull even if he was officially on the ballot.

I'd bet that the Mormons will give McMullin some love, but I'm not so sure about the other 90% of Wyoming.

I wish that we had more polls for him. I understand not doing nationwide polls, but some polls in states where he is on the ballot would be nice. I think that there's only been one Idaho poll with him (and I think it was an Atlas commissioned Google poll). CNU has been good about including him in their Virginia polls (where he is on the ballot). He's at about 3% in VA.

Edit: Lincoln and Big Horn counties in Wyoming could also be hot spots for McMullin, especially Lincoln.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Btw, this thread is funny in retrospect:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236158.0

For the 100000th time: No. IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. When will Atlas finally realize this? lol

Who would have thought at that point that a no-name conservative 3rd party candidate would have a legitimate shot at winning a state in this election?

I bet if someone wrote a 2016 timeline a year ago, and included this sideplot about Evan McMullin being tied in Utah polls, the author would be criticized for being unrealistic.

It would be like that scene from Back to the Future: "Who the hell is John F. Kennedy?" Granted, McMullin won't be the next president, but he was essentially no one before the election.

Hell, I probably would've called it unrealistic a month or two ago.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Looks like they just added Wyoming yesterday...
https://twitter.com/TeamMcMullin/status/789580713020358657

Genuine ballot access or just write-ins?

It has to be write-in because I am pretty sure they missed the deadline in a few of those states.

Write-in. I've been watching Wiki's map of his ballot access over the last couple of weeks and it's all over the place. I wouldn't rely on the Wiki map for the write-in states.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

A poll for Arkansas is going to be released soon.  And McMullin just got endorsed by the speaker of the house here.  Lets see if he can get above 1% and Jill Stein, which shouldn't be too hard.

Isn't the Green Party strong (relatively speaking) in Arkansas?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

A poll for Arkansas is going to be released soon.  And McMullin just got endorsed by the speaker of the house here.  Lets see if he can get above 1% and Jill Stein, which shouldn't be too hard.

Isn't the Green Party strong (relatively speaking) in Arkansas?

The last poll taken in September had Stein at .5%.  So it shouldn't be too hard to get over that.

Intrerestlng. I just looked up the GP of Arkansas. They managed to elect someone to the lower house, which is what I was thinking of. Hopefully the poll includes McMullin.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I think McMullin could get the Amish vote as well. The Amish are certainly not gonna vote for Drumpf in this election. Only problem is that I doubt McMullin is actually on the ballot in the Amish states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and so on.

He is not on the ballot here in Illinois. Large Amish population here in the east central portion of the state. Same with northern Missouri (where he could be on the ballot for all I know).

He's officially on the ballot in ID, UT, CO, NM, MN, IA, AR, LA, SC, KY, and VA. I'm pretty sure he's a write-in in MO though.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/31/white-nationalist-william-johnson-s-pro-trump-robocall-evan-mcmullin-is-gay.html

Evan's being attacked for maybe being gay because he's never been married

Not surprising that someone is trying that. The robocall itself is insane. Not sure how it will pursuade anyone.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/31/white-nationalist-william-johnson-s-pro-trump-robocall-evan-mcmullin-is-gay.html

Evan's being attacked for maybe being gay because he's never been married

Not surprising that someone is trying that. The robocall itself is insane. Not sure how it will pursuade anyone.

It might even backfire by bringing McMullin to the attention of more voters, as well as generating sympathy for the attack.

Seriously... If I was undecided, I would definitely be taking another look at McMullin.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Both of his parents are gay what are odds he's gay too? That would seem pretty wild.

Is his dad gay too? I knew about his mom already.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Both of his parents are gay what are odds he's gay too? That would seem pretty wild.

Is his dad gay too? I knew about his mom already.

I read he had two moms I assumed "dad" was just a donor.

Pretty sure that his parents divorced. Not sure what happened with his dad though.