Why are Democratic poll numbers cratering in the Senate....
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  Why are Democratic poll numbers cratering in the Senate....
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Author Topic: Why are Democratic poll numbers cratering in the Senate....  (Read 557 times)
morgieb
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« on: October 12, 2016, 06:30:04 PM »

...given Trump's are too?

I've seen Ayotte get her polling position back to break-even and get a clear lead on Trump, ditto Toomey, and even Johnson's managed to get a couple of promising polls for him.

Doesn't make a lot of sense for the Presidential race to go one way but the Senate to go the other. Are people not wanting to give Hillary too much of a mandate? Has there been very strong campaigns for the incumbent Senators? I haven't seen any gaffes lately either.

I'm probably being idiotic and hyperventilating here but if we can't win the Senate I'd kinda want Trump to win......
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2016, 06:31:32 PM »



I'm probably being idiotic and hyperventilating here but if we can't win the Senate I'd kinda want Trump to win......
That thought is really stupid.  You would want a man who could murder millions to win?
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2016, 06:36:17 PM »

     Given that Clinton's favorables are weak and much of her support is anti-Trump, supporting GOP Senate candidates would be a brilliant strategy to prevent her from having too much power as President. I can't say that's what's actually going on, though.
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2016, 06:37:42 PM »



I'm probably being idiotic and hyperventilating here but if we can't win the Senate I'd kinda want Trump to win......
That thought is really stupid.  You would want a man who could murder millions to win?
Like I said, it's stupid, but what would Hillary get done in a Republican Congress? Even Supreme Court nominations look like they'll be tough, and it'll probably guarantee a Republican win in 2020.....

Plus I also think Trump's Presidency will be enough of a disaster that he'll cause massive ramifications for the Republican party long-term.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2016, 06:41:30 PM »

The rhetoric around Trump being an unholy horror has normalized down-ticket Republicans.
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Figueira
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2016, 06:50:46 PM »

They aren't. Very few polls conducted since the video have been released, and they generally show things in roughly the same place they were before.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2016, 06:51:46 PM »

It won't matter if 5-10% of Republicans that currently say they are going to vote don't turn out because they don't like Trump.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2016, 07:20:47 PM »



I'm probably being idiotic and hyperventilating here but if we can't win the Senate I'd kinda want Trump to win......
That thought is really stupid.  You would want a man who could murder millions to win?
Like I said, it's stupid, but what would Hillary get done in a Republican Congress? Even Supreme Court nominations look like they'll be tough, and it'll probably guarantee a Republican win in 2020.....

Plus I also think Trump's Presidency will be enough of a disaster that he'll cause massive ramifications for the Republican party long-term.
No, nothing would be gained from a Trump presidency except the death of people.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2016, 07:26:23 PM »

The congressional ballot suggests Dems are going to do quite well.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2016, 10:00:30 PM »

Independents are moving to clinton and maybe they want a check on clinton.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2016, 11:10:40 PM »

Polls always seem to tighten before Election Day. Remember in 2012 all of the polls up to the day still had McCaskill just narrowly winning and she won by double digits? And I recall Pennsylvania had a ton of close polls even though Casey ended up winning fairly comfortably (though he still won by less than he should have due to his poor campaigning).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2016, 11:40:59 PM »

It's worrying me a lot, too. There's something weird going on, and it might spell us doom.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2016, 11:15:34 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2016, 11:17:19 AM by Tartarus Sauce »

It could either be because of lag, particularly now that Trump seems determined to drag the entire party down with him, or it could be because of anticipatory balancing. If it's the latter, that means that despite the absolute dysfunctionality of the GOP right now, voters are still backing GOP candidates as a "check" against Hillary Clinton. That's seriously disheartening if that's what's occurring. It sends the message that the GOP can behave however it wants and not suffer any consequences for it in their congressional majorities. They need to feel the sting of losses in order to reform into something better.
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Kevin
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2016, 11:21:20 AM »

TBH I think it's a mixture of Trump's problems being wholly unique to the candidate (let's be honest could you see someone like Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz going on TMZ or Howard Stern to make lewd remarks about women?).

Combined with the inconvenient truth(many posters on here who wish it wasn't true and ignoring it) but Hillary Clinton's number's aren't much better then Donald's in many key seats this cycle. If Hillary was facing any other GOP nominee beesides Trump downballot Democrats would be running as far as possible away from her.

Then you add in incumbent advantage and medicore Democratic candidates(Ted Strickland and Patrick Murphy come to mind) then it all makes alot of sense.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2016, 12:13:21 PM »

I'd say give it another week or so. It doesn't seem like Democratic numbers in NV or FL have "cratered" over the past week. We're not talking about that many polls to begin with.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2016, 12:18:24 PM »

There's either a lag going on (likeliest), or the overwhelming likelihood of Clinton being elected President means her problems are seeping down-ballot at a much greater rate than Trump's (less likely, but hopefully this is going on). Except for a few oddballs like Jim Justice, Democratic candidates have not put in the effort to distance themselves from Hillary, while Republican candidates have put in the effort to distance themselves from Trump.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2016, 08:47:48 PM »

It could either be because of lag, particularly now that Trump seems determined to drag the entire party down with him, or it could be because of anticipatory balancing. If it's the latter, that means that despite the absolute dysfunctionality of the GOP right now, voters are still backing GOP candidates as a "check" against Hillary Clinton. That's seriously disheartening if that's what's occurring. It sends the message that the GOP can behave however it wants and not suffer any consequences for it in their congressional majorities. They need to feel the sting of losses in order to reform into something better.

I really hope that's not what's going on. It would be so utterly disheartening.
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