PA- Bloomberg: Clinton +9
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  PA- Bloomberg: Clinton +9
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Author Topic: PA- Bloomberg: Clinton +9  (Read 2699 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: October 13, 2016, 04:31:16 AM »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-13/pennsylvania-poll



Statewide, 60 percent of likely voters said they were bothered a lot by the 2005 Trump recording, including 24 percent of his own supporters. Among women, 69 percent were bothered a lot, compared to 51 percent of men.
In the four suburban counties, 68 percent of likely voters were bothered a lot, including 76 percent of women, 60 percent of men, and a quarter of Trump supporters.

Statewide, some of the groups Clinton is winning handily in the two-way contest include non-whites (+49 points), those with a college degree (+26 points), and those under age 35 (+22 points). She wins whites with college degrees, a longstanding Republican stronghold, 57 percent to 35 percent.
In the two-way race, Trump is recording some of his biggest advantages over Clinton among white men without college degrees (+32 points), rural residents (+20 points), Catholics (+15 points), and western Pennsylvanians (+11 points).
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peterthlee
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2016, 04:34:15 AM »

Marvelous poll!!!
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2016, 04:48:03 AM »

This is also from Selzer who has a heavy Trump tilt in her likely voter screens all cycle. It's very likely Clinton is ahead by double digits
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bilaps
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2016, 04:55:23 AM »

This is also from Selzer who has a heavy Trump tilt in her likely voter screens all cycle. It's very likely Clinton is ahead by double digits

You have to stop unskewing polls, Selzer is probably the best pollster in the country. They know what are they doing.

Having said that, Trump is finished.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2016, 05:09:23 AM »

This is also from Selzer who has a heavy Trump tilt in her likely voter screens all cycle. It's very likely Clinton is ahead by double digits

You have to stop unskewing polls, Selzer is probably the best pollster in the country. They know what are they doing.

Having said that, Trump is finished.

No, no, that's not "unskewing."  It's adjusting for so-called "house effects."

Pollsters often have house effects -- sampling practices and other factors that mean that they generate results that are more Democratic or Republican than the average poll.  For instance, if we only have one Indiana poll, and it's from a pollster that routinely finds unusually Democratic results in other states, it's very reasonable to assume that the poll in Indiana is also too Democratic.  This is perfectly reasonable, because pollsters with partisan house effects do exist, and it would be a bad idea to ignore that if the polls in a given state come from pollsters with the similar house effects.

"Unskewing" is re-weighting a poll based on either non-static political factors (like party ID), which is a terrible idea.  Sometimes "unskewing" is also applied to the practice of re-weighting based on shoddy prior data like race composition from exit polls.  In the former case, you're re-weighting a poll based on something you should reasonably expect to change; in the latter case, you're re-weighting a poll based on information that probably was inaccurate in the first place.

Neither of those things are reasonable.  Done right, re-weighting for house effects is the right thing to do.
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Donnie
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2016, 05:17:02 AM »

Others at 3% statewide, but 6% in the suburbs ?
So, Johnson + Stein + McMuffin + Castle all togheter at 2% beside
of Philly suburbs ?? S** poll.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2016, 05:31:38 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2016, 05:47:06 AM by Alcon »

Others at 3% statewide, but 6% in the suburbs ?
So, Johnson + Stein + McMuffin + Castle all togheter at 2% beside
of Philly suburbs ?? S** poll.

The margin of error for the Philly suburbs is +/-5.1%.  The margin of error for the remainder of the state isn't specified, but is probably around +/-4.0%.  In other words, the two figures are within the Margin of Error.

A lot of polls (most?) these days ask two topline questions.  The first is just Clinton or Trump, and requires respondents to volunteer "Other."  Those are the numbers quoted above.  The second includes third-party candidates.  In this poll, third-party candidates are higher when they're explicitly named on the second topline questions, although Clinton's margin remains the same:

Clinton 48%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 4%

The article explains this all.

None of these numbers look unusual or unreasonable.  I don't see a basis for calling this a "s*** poll."
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2016, 05:33:19 AM »

Others at 3% statewide, but 6% in the suburbs ?
So, Johnson + Stein + McMuffin + Castle all togheter at 2% beside
of Philly suburbs ?? S** poll.

This post must be a joke, right?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2016, 05:34:09 AM »

CUTE AND SEXY POLL!!!  Thank you SE PA educateds!
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Baki
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2016, 05:37:07 AM »

Senate:

McGinty - 47
Toomey - 45

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StatesPoll
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2016, 05:39:16 AM »


 '373' Likely voters size for PA?

and by Bloomberg(pro-hillary)
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Baki
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2016, 05:42:37 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2016, 05:50:06 AM by Baki »


 '373' Likely voters size for PA?

and by Bloomberg(pro-hillary)


Read the text below the numbers in the picture in the opening post.



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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2016, 05:42:58 AM »


 '373' Likely voters size for PA?

and by Bloomberg(pro-hillary)


I didn't hear you complaining when the same outfit showed Trump up 4 in Iowa a few days ago.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2016, 06:02:27 AM »

Great poll!
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2016, 06:04:29 AM »


 '373' Likely voters size for PA?

and by Bloomberg(pro-hillary)


I didn't hear you complaining when the same outfit showed Trump up 4 in Iowa a few days ago.

Total Votes (2012)
Iowa 1.58 Million votes. 6 EV
Pennsylvania 5.75 Million voets. 20 EV

373 LV size could be ok for IA/NV/NH. perhaps NM too.
But for PA, no.

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Lachi
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2016, 06:05:12 AM »


 '373' Likely voters size for PA?

and by Bloomberg(pro-hillary)

373 in PHILADELPHIA, NOT THE WHOLE STATE!
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Alcon
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2016, 06:12:24 AM »


 '373' Likely voters size for PA?

and by Bloomberg(pro-hillary)


I didn't hear you complaining when the same outfit showed Trump up 4 in Iowa a few days ago.

Total Votes (2012)
Iowa 1.58 Million votes. 6 EV
Pennsylvania 5.75 Million voets. 20 EV

373 LV size could be ok for IA/NV/NH. perhaps NM too.
But for PA, no.

1. You continue to have no damn idea how margin of error works.  A n=373 poll in PA would have a margin of error of a margin of error of +/-5%. An n=373 poll of Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire has a virtually identical margin of error, also +/-5%.  You have to get down to a population size of a couple thousand people before your MoE falls to +/-4%. 

2. The n=373 is for the Philadelphia suburban counties only.  It's an n=806 poll.

you're just terrible
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2016, 06:13:55 AM »


YouGov Election Model
Pennsylvania. 10/12

Hillary 46.6% | TRUMP 45.4% | Johnson 4.4% | Stein 1.9%

back in the game

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2016, 06:39:22 AM »


YouGov Election Model
Pennsylvania. 10/12

Hillary 46.6% | TRUMP 45.4% | Johnson 4.4% | Stein 1.9%

back in the game

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania

No, you hack.  It doesn't work that way.  You like be to cite sh**t their results, said nice that is all that comes out of your forecasts.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2016, 07:37:39 AM »

As David Plouffe said, PA is a fantasy for Republicans.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2016, 07:41:45 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2016, 07:45:02 AM by BoAtlantis »

StatesPoll doesn't even bother opening the link.


"October 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bloomberg Politics Pennsylvania Poll, conducted Oct. 7-11 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on interviews with 806 Pennsylvania residents who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2016 general election. In order to look more closely at voters in the four counties that surround Philadelphia (Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware counties), an oversample of 215 likely voters in those counties was conducted, leading to a total of 373 likely voters in these suburban Philadelphia counties.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,233 Pennsylvania adults with listed landline and cell phone numbers supplied by TargetSmart to reflect the age 18 and over population of Pennsylvania. Responses from the full probability sample were weighted by age and race to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Interviews were administered in English.

Percentages based on the sample of 806 statewide Pennsylvania likely voters may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and those based on the sample of 373 likely voters in the four suburban Philadelphia counties may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the statewide sample and plus or minus 5.1 percentage points for the suburban counties. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error."
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2016, 07:47:28 AM »

Unskew to your little heart's desire, StatesBalls.  Trump is heading for a fine thrashing. 
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2016, 07:51:22 AM »

This is also from Selzer who has a heavy Trump tilt in her likely voter screens all cycle. It's very likely Clinton is ahead by double digits

You have to stop unskewing polls, Selzer is probably the best pollster in the country. They know what are they doing.

Having said that, Trump is finished.

No, no, that's not "unskewing."  It's adjusting for so-called "house effects."

Pollsters often have house effects -- sampling practices and other factors that mean that they generate results that are more Democratic or Republican than the average poll.  For instance, if we only have one Indiana poll, and it's from a pollster that routinely finds unusually Democratic results in other states, it's very reasonable to assume that the poll in Indiana is also too Democratic.  This is perfectly reasonable, because pollsters with partisan house effects do exist, and it would be a bad idea to ignore that if the polls in a given state come from pollsters with the similar house effects.

"Unskewing" is re-weighting a poll based on either non-static political factors (like party ID), which is a terrible idea.  Sometimes "unskewing" is also applied to the practice of re-weighting based on shoddy prior data like race composition from exit polls.  In the former case, you're re-weighting a poll based on something you should reasonably expect to change; in the latter case, you're re-weighting a poll based on information that probably was inaccurate in the first place.

Neither of those things are reasonable.  Done right, re-weighting for house effects is the right thing to do.

Absolutely correct. Party unskewing is what Dick Morris did and his results ended up being bigly terrible. Nate Silver adjusts for House-effect all the time and he already re-weighted this poll from +9 to +10.
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Incipimus iterum
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2016, 07:52:45 AM »


YouGov Election Model
Pennsylvania. 10/12

Hillary 46.6% | TRUMP 45.4% | Johnson 4.4% | Stein 1.9%

back in the game

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania

You wanna bet on that?
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Skye
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2016, 11:01:00 AM »

States poll is a troll. Don't waste your time.
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