More likely to flip: Pennsylvania or Utah?

[HillOfANight]

Last 3 Utah polls from 538

Trump +6
Tie
Trump +4

538 has Hillary at 10.7% polls only

Last 3 PA polls from 538

Clinton +9
Clinton +4
Clinton +6

538 has Trump at 10.5% polls only

[Fargobison]

Trump is cooked in PA, the Mormons though hate him and Trump is of no use at all to them. He isn't even a means to defeat Clinton anymore since has no path to victory so Utah is much more likely.

[Vosem]

Pretty clearly the chance of Utah not voting for Trump is greater than the chance of Pennsylvania not voting for Clinton. As to who wins it, that's more difficult, though I went with McMullin.

[Dr. Arch]

Pretty clearly the chance of Utah not voting for Trump is greater than the chance of Pennsylvania not voting for Clinton. As to who wins it, that's more difficult, though I went with McMullin.

[HillOfANight]

I voted Trump for Pennsylvania. Since it has no early voting, I'm scared either complacency or weather could doom her......

[Maxwell]

Pennsylvania is pretty much safe Clinton. It is far more likely Utah flips to McMullin, or even Clinton herself.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Has a presidential candidate taken a state with less than 30% of the vote?  Wilson took Idaho with 32% in 1912.  That's the smallest plurality I could find in the 20th century.

I realize this would require McMuffin and Aleppo both to do extremely well, which probably is not realistic.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Has a presidential candidate taken a state with less than 30% of the vote?  Wilson took Idaho with 32% in 1912.  That's the smallest plurality I could find in the 20th century.

I realize this would require McMuffin and Aleppo both to do extremely well, which probably is not realistic.

I think that Johnson will lose some of his support to McMullin as the protest-voting Mormons find out about McMullin (a poll showed that something like 66% of Utahns don't know who McMullin is), so it would be hard to beat that record set by Wilson.

What he could beat (not sure though) is the lowest nationwide popular vote while still winning a state. I haven't looked into whether or not he could, I just had that thought yesterday.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Clinton doesn't have a high enough ceiling to win Utah.