NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/+5 in NC, Tied/Trump+1 in OH

[Ozymandias]

Mark Murray on twitter just said the party I.D for the Ohio poll is even for Democrats and Republicans. Whoever wins in Ohio, it'll be because of turnout.

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  4m4 minutes ago
Explaining Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist poll had party ID even there b/w Ds and Rs.

Per '12 exit poll, it was D+7.

So it's all about turnout

[Fusionmunster]

Mark Murray on twitter just said the party I.D for the Ohio poll is even for Democrats and Republicans. Whoever wins in Ohio, it'll be because of turnout.

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  4m4 minutes ago
Explaining Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist poll had party ID even there b/w Ds and Rs.

Per '12 exit poll, it was D+7.

So it's all about turnout

Yep, im on mobile so have a harder time quoting things. Thanks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mark Murray on twitter just said the party I.D for the Ohio poll is even for Democrats and Republicans. Whoever wins in Ohio, it'll be because of turnout.

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  4m4 minutes ago
Explaining Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist poll had party ID even there b/w Ds and Rs.

Per '12 exit poll, it was D+7.

So it's all about turnout

Not necessarily.  Party ID is fluid and often follows the voter's choice for President (not the other way around.)

[Maxwell]

rip swing state ohio

rip swing state north carolina

[Landslide Lyndon]

Excellent result in North Carolina. Ohio will be just icing on the cake for Clinton.

[TarHeelDem]

RIP swing state North Carolina indeed.

[john cage bubblegum]

Mark Murray on twitter just said the party I.D for the Ohio poll is even for Democrats and Republicans. Whoever wins in Ohio, it'll be because of turnout.

That shows you why Clinton is in good shape in Ohio.  Obama won Ohio in 2012 by 3 points with a D+7 electorate (by 4.5 with a D+8 electorate in '08), so Clinton is likely doing better with Independents and probably winning over more moderate Republicans.

Just GOTV and win.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If Trump miraculously wins the  3rd debate and Wikileaks continues to spill emails (detracting media away from Trump accusers) then he will have a legit shot again

If this and that my guy will win.  When your playing games like that, you are not doing a good job of winning.

Why does no one notice my actual Johnson/Weld endorsement

You post like a Trump supporter.

Well, somebody has to represent the other side in this argument considering the liberal tilt of Atlas, and I don't want that somebody to be Statespoll

[ProudModerate2]

Ohio's still close, to be sure, but the average still favors Clinton. NC's looking very good.

[ApatheticAustrian]

OH could be a tough call...as far as i know republicans have been quite successful in making inroads regarding registration there.

[DrScholl]

Clinton will win Ohio. I have no doubt about it.

[Fusionmunster]

Clinton will win Ohio. I have no doubt about it.

If Clinton is tied with an even party i.d, I don't see her losing it either.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

That is the absolute best case scenario for Trump right now.  Note an interesting tidbit: it's a loss. 

[Person Man]

That is the absolute best case scenario for Trump right now.  Note an interesting tidbit: it's a loss. 

That's the freiwal. As long as the battle stays out of those states, Trump can't win.

[BoAtlantis]

I knew Baldwin poll was way off. Not saying it doesn't have any value but they didn't weigh by education or race.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

That is the absolute best case scenario for Trump right now.  Note an interesting tidbit: it's a loss. 

That's the freiwal. As long as the battle stays out of those states, Trump can't win.

Nevada has looked shaky (muh underpolled Latinos) but the 272 is very solid.  North Carolina and Florida are edging closer to likely territory.  Clinton will win one of OH/FL/NC, I guarantee it.  That has to seal the deal, even if things get close at the end.

[Rand]

Pussygrabber McTic Tac Breath just said he was up one point in the NC poll and his followers ate it up. Yeah, about that, Donald...

[BoAtlantis]

White absentee requests are way down in NC and OH absentee ballots are way down in Cuyahoga.
It appears to me that Marist poll results dovetail nicely with the early trend in OH and NC.

[MasterJedi]

That is the absolute best case scenario for Trump right now.  Note an interesting tidbit: it's a loss. 

That's the freiwal. As long as the battle stays out of those states, Trump can't win.

Nevada has looked shaky (muh underpolled Latinos) but the 272 is very solid.  North Carolina and Florida are edging closer to likely territory.  Clinton will win one of OH/FL/NC, I guarantee it.  That has to seal the deal, even if things get close at the end.

You can take out Nevada and it's still the firewall.

[HillOfANight]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1013-nbc-newswall-street-journalmarist-poll/
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161010/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample_October%202016.pdf
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/OHPolls/OH161010/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Ohio%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample_October%202016.pdf

Crosstabs for unskewers and data nerds. They have whites in NC at 73% compared to 71% from Upshot's NC poll and blacks at 20% compared to 22% like Upshot. Amazing that she's leading so bigly despite that.

Blacks are 11% for Ohio, which is similar to other Ohio polls, though a notable dropoff from 2012's 15% per the exit poll.

Full tables will be released tomorrow.

[BoAtlantis]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1013-nbc-newswall-street-journalmarist-poll/
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161010/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample_October%202016.pdf
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/OHPolls/OH161010/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Ohio%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample_October%202016.pdf

Crosstabs for unskewers and data nerds. They have whites in NC at 73% compared to 71% from Upshot's NC poll and blacks at 20% compared to 22% like Upshot. Amazing that she's leading so bigly despite that.

Blacks are 11% for Ohio, which is similar to other Ohio polls, though a notable dropoff from 2012's 15% per the exit poll.

Full tables will be released tomorrow.

That's not surprising because whites are more likely to pick up their phones. All pollsters weigh their numbers so that it matches the demographics.

Marist has a great track record so there is no need to unskew.

[NOVA Green]

Welcome swing state South Carolina....

It won't take that many college-educated and county-club Whites and a lower than average White evangelical turnout to flip the state, or at least make it tight on Election Day.

White population as about the same in both states, although SC is a bit more Black with fewer Latinos, and there is a chunk of voters in NW SC where trade related issues are paramount in former Textile and furniture assembly country, where there are only so many new high paying jobs in the auto sector to compensate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...interesting results.

[pbrower2a]

If Trump miraculously wins the  3rd debate

The only way in which that happens is if she forfeits the debate. Donald Trump will not suddenly become a good debater. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...as if people care so much about that as they find expressions of Donald Trump's disgusting sexuality grossly offensive.

Multiply all the chances of the 'ifs' by the chances of the impossible (zero), and you get zero.