Who wins Harris County, TX?

[BaldEagle1991]

Harris County, TX is the county that contains Houston, Texas. A city known for its oil and gas connections, NASA, and a growing ethnically diverse population. It was the first major city to elect a lesbian in 2009, but yet rejected a civil rights ordinance in 2015. 

Last 2 results of the county showed it's been a close county, perhaps the closest out of all counties with a major city:

2008:
Obama 590,982    
McCain 571,883

2012:
Obama 587,044
Romney 586,073

So who do you think wins it?

[Lachi]

Not even close this year.

[CatoMinor]

Clinton

[NOVA Green]

Clinton +10-15.

Going out on a limb, Fort Bend County will flip and Montgomery County will only be +25 Republican instead of +40, if we through in a few of the major suburban counties around Houston.

[dspNY]

Clinton +10-15.

Going out on a limb, Fort Bend County will flip and Montgomery County will only be +25 Republican instead of +40, if we through in a few of the major suburban counties around Houston.

If the Dallas and San Antonio suburban counties had a similar swing, Clinton actually has about a 10% chance to win

[BaldEagle1991]

Clinton +10-15.

Going out on a limb, Fort Bend County will flip and Montgomery County will only be +25 Republican instead of +40, if we through in a few of the major suburban counties around Houston.

If the Dallas and San Antonio suburban counties had a similar swing, Clinton actually has about a 10% chance to win

 

This is because unlike them, Houston's suburbs are ethnically diverse.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hillary will win it, but not by double digits. Jeez.

[BaldEagle1991]

Hillary will win it, but not by double digits. Jeez.

If she does it'll send alarm bells among the Texas GOP.

[Holmes]

Clinton will win it comfortably. The forum seems to be in agreement.

[riceowl]

Clinton, but not that comfortably.

[riceowl]

Also, FYI:

George W. Bush 584,723 54.75%
John F. Kerry 475,865 44.56%

GEORGE W. BUSH AND DICK CHENEY .     528,965   54.28
AL GORE AND JOE LIEBERMAN   .  .     418,143   42.91

BOB DOLE/JACK KEMP .  .  .  .  .     421,462   49.28
BILL CLINTON/AL GORE  .  .  .  .     386,726   45.22

[Badger]

Not even close this year.

[Xing]

Clinton by high single digits.

[Indy Texas]

She was leading Trump by 10 points in Harris County in a poll earlier this year. And that was before he actually started cratering.

Wouldn't surprise me if the numbers weren't similar to Dallas County's this year (roughly 55/45 D).

[BaldEagle1991]

Wouldn't surprise me if the numbers weren't similar to Dallas County's this year (roughly 55/45 D).

Kind of funny considering Dallas is Houston's rival.

[TDAS04]

Definitely Clinton.

[Del Tachi]

Definitely Clinton.

[Arbitrage1980]

I doubt that Hillary will win Harris County by a higher margin than Dubya did in 04. A margin of 5-8% makes sense.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Clinton by a lot

[Skye]

Clinton, obviously.

[BaldEagle1991]

I do wonder how much of a % of the Hispanic vote will Hillary get.

[hopper]

Clinton.

[Indy Texas]

Wouldn't surprise me if the numbers weren't similar to Dallas County's this year (roughly 55/45 D).

Kind of funny considering Dallas is Houston's rival.

Dallas is "ahead" of Harris County in terms of political trends. It started moving away from the Republicans early in the Bush years. Its size means any exurban sprawl is going to happen in neighboring counties rather than in Dallas itself (compared to much larger Harris County, which still has empty pockets). And the black community is more geographically concentrated and politically engaged than the one in Houston.

My guess is that Clinton gets in the high 50s in Dallas County.

[NOVA Green]

As I posted on the latest Texas polling thread,:

Perhaps the worst news for Trump in the details of the poll is Trump is only up 6% in the 59 counties that include Metro Houston, all of East Texas, and parts of SouthEast Texas.

This appears to indicate a complete collapse in the Houston area, as I have mentioned on other threads, with Harris County swinging heavily Democratic by 10-15%, Fort Bend county moving into a likely D model, and the upper-middle Class Anglos in Montgomery County (The Woodlands) and also the new Exxon Corp HQ acting more like a 60-40 Republican County and less like an 80-20 R County.

Considering how overwhelmingly Republican, Anglo, and evangelical the vast majority of the remaining areas are outside of metro "H-Town", this is the only thing that could explain. I wish they posted a map of which counties were included so we can run the PVI, but Trump alone, appears to be turning metro Houston deep dark Red.

[Breton Racer]

Clinton will win it easily

Clinton-50% (594,264)
Trump-41% (487,296)
Other-9% (106,968)

Probably over a 107k Vote advantage, or somewhere close to that. (A Swing of 106k votes). She will also do better in the suburbs of Houston, Dallas, and Austin.