Who wins Duval County, FL?

[BaldEagle1991]

Duval County, Florida is the county that contains Jacksonville, FL. It's a port city and it's a military city as well. Its one of the few cities in America that has a Republican mayor.

Last two election results came out close, with the Republican candidate winning it:

2008:
McCain 210,537    
Obama 202,618

2012:
Romney 211,615
Obama 196,737    

So who wins this county this time?

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump. Unlike many other large metropolitan areas, there's not much Hillary can work with as far as demographics go. She would just have to win by 8 or more to win here.

[Nyvin]

Trump should win Duval.

[JA]

Unfortunately, I don't foresee Clinton having much luck securing Duval County. Nothing is impossible, it's just unlikely. This area is pretty inelastic and there's a rather significant population of not merely Republican voters, but enthusiastic Trump supporters here. I've lived in the Jacksonville metro since I was born and trust me - this is a very friendly area for the GOP, especially the counties surrounding Duval.

[BaldEagle1991]

Well the only thing I can sense into why Trump might win it it's a White military town.

[Young Conservative]

Hillary would have to win by over 10 points nationally to win in Duval.

[Nyvin]

Hillary would have to win by over 10 points nationally to win in Duval.

It's only 57% non-hispanic white.   It wouldn't take a double digit win nationally.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Duval is firmly in the basket.

[Gass3268]

Trump, but I think it will be closer to 2008 than 2012.

[Badger]

Wait a minute. McCain wins buy under 2% of the vote and Romney by Under two and a half comma and people think Trump meltdown is it going to erase that margin? I don't know Jacksonville politics that well, but I just cannot see it being that out early in elastic. This is Duval County, not Mississippi. I say Clinton takes it by a a few points

[BaldEagle1991]

Wait a minute. McCain wins buy under 2% of the vote and Romney by Under two and a half comma and people think Trump meltdown is it going to erase that margin? I don't know Jacksonville politics that well, but I just cannot see it being that out early in elastic. This is Duval County, not Mississippi. I say Clinton takes it by a a few points

For someone that has been in Northern Florida, it does feel like Mississippi/Georgia.

[TDAS04]

Probably Trump, but it's possible that Hillary will win, considering how close it was the last two times.

[Kingpoleon]

Duval County, Florida is the county that contains Jacksonville, FL. It's a port city and it's a military city as well. Its one of the few cities in America that has a Republican mayor.

ROFL

[BaldEagle1991]

Duval County, Florida is the county that contains Jacksonville, FL. It's a port city and it's a military city as well. Its one of the few cities in America that has a Republican mayor.

ROFL

It's not wrong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenny_Curry

[Kingpoleon]

Duval County, Florida is the county that contains Jacksonville, FL. It's a port city and it's a military city as well. Its one of the few cities in America that has a Republican mayor.

ROFL

It's not wrong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenny_Curry

Tens of thousands of cities have Republican mayors.

[publicunofficial]

Duval County, Florida is the county that contains Jacksonville, FL. It's a port city and it's a military city as well. Its one of the few cities in America that has a Republican mayor.

ROFL

It's not wrong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenny_Curry

Tens of thousands of cities have Republican mayors.

He meant REAL cities.

[Chaddyr23]

Trump by 1

[Kingpoleon]

Duval County, Florida is the county that contains Jacksonville, FL. It's a port city and it's a military city as well. Its one of the few cities in America that has a Republican mayor.

ROFL

It's not wrong https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenny_Curry

Tens of thousands of cities have Republican mayors.

He meant REAL cities.

I meant in REAL America.

[Suburbia]

Trump will win Duval County by 5 points. It's a Republican-friendly area.

[Devils30]

Curious what the % of white college grads is. St John's might have a bigger hillary gain.

[Dereich]

Clinton with under 50% (actual Duval resident)

[Nyvin]

Trump will win Duval County by 5 points. It's a Republican-friendly area.

Not really, the minority vote in the area gives the Democrats a rock solid floor in the county.

[BaldEagle1991]

Trump will win Duval County by 5 points. It's a Republican-friendly area.

Not really, the minority vote in the area gives the Democrats a rock solid floor in the county.

Theyre still not the majority. Its not Orlando....yet.

[Gass3268]

Clinton with under 50% (actual Duval resident)

Good to know. Always trust the person on the ground level.

[Badger]

Wait a minute. McCain wins buy under 2% of the vote and Romney by Under two and a half comma and people think Trump meltdown is it going to erase that margin? I don't know Jacksonville politics that well, but I just cannot see it being that out early in elastic. This is Duval County, not Mississippi. I say Clinton takes it by a a few points

For someone that has been in Northern Florida, it does feel like Mississippi/Georgia.

Oh, I get that North Florida is the Dixie part of the state. My point is considering how close the last two races are and how horribly Trump is doing, Duval would have to be the least elastic county in Florida, if not the country, for Hillary to still lose it.