NH-UMass Lowell: Ayotte +1

[Fargobison]

Ayotte 45
Hassan 44

https://www.uml.edu/docs/HIGHLIGHTS%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20GENERAL%2020161013_tcm18-262710.pdf

[Ronnie]

It's possible for the Dems to capture the senate without NH -- IL + WI + PA + NC/MO + NV (hold) -- but that's kind of a tall order.  Hassan seems to be choking here, which is unfortunate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is bad.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

[Ebsy]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

[Fusionmunster]

Hillary is going to have to drag Hassan passed the finish line.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

My point was that if this poll is as accurate as it was in 2014, Hassan will be writing her political obituary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

If you have any reason to believe the polls are wrong, by all means share it. I could use some good news. Just don't say "angry NH women" please.

From where I see it, this looks like tossup/tilt-R.

[Ebsy]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

My point was that if this poll is as accurate as it was in 2014, Hassan will be writing her political obituary.

Reiterating your point doesn't make it any better.

[Fusionmunster]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

If you have any reason to believe the polls are wrong, by all means share it. I could use some good news. Just don't say "angry NH women" please.

From where I see it, this looks like tossup/tilt-R.

Its pure toss up, no tilt.

[KingSweden]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

If you have any reason to believe the polls are wrong, by all means share it. I could use some good news. Just don't say "angry NH women" please.

From where I see it, this looks like tossup/tilt-R.

Its pure toss up, no tilt.

Agreed. Hassan did lead in another poll, after all

[Antonio the Sixth]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

If you have any reason to believe the polls are wrong, by all means share it. I could use some good news. Just don't say "angry NH women" please.

From where I see it, this looks like tossup/tilt-R.

Its pure toss up, no tilt.

Agreed. Hassan did lead in another poll, after all

Wasn't it an internal?

[Maxwell]

Hassan is literally running away from an incumbent President with positive approval ratings, so Ayotte might actually have a shot if this idiocy continues.


I mean what kind of democrat puts this ad out in a lean democrat state?

[Heisenberg]

Hassan is literally running away from an incumbent President with positive approval ratings, so Ayotte might actually have a shot if this idiocy continues.

I have no idea why Hassan isn't attacking Ayotte on issues like abortion, guns, LGBT rights, Obamacare, etc. where Ayotte is way out of sync with most people in New Hampshire, a very liberal state.

[RINO Tom]

Hassan is literally running away from an incumbent President with positive approval ratings, so Ayotte might actually have a shot if this idiocy continues.

I have no idea why Hassan isn't attacking Ayotte on issues like abortion, guns, LGBT rights, Obamacare, etc. where Ayotte is way out of sync with most people in New Hampshire, a very liberal state.

Did you just say NH was a liberal state on guns?  Jesus, dude.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hassan is literally running away from an incumbent President with positive approval ratings, so Ayotte might actually have a shot if this idiocy continues.

I have no idea why Hassan isn't attacking Ayotte on issues like abortion, guns, LGBT rights, Obamacare, etc. where Ayotte is way out of sync with most people in New Hampshire, a very liberal state.

Abortion - Didn't work for Udall.
Guns - "Live Free or Die" state much?!? Anti-second amendment rhetoric would not go over well here.
LGBT - While there is plenty of activism here, it's about the 70th thing on voters' minds when they actually walk into the voting booth.
ObamaCare - While I don't support repealing the law, it's pretty clear Obamacare has some serious flaws that need to be addressed.

[Heisenberg]

Hassan is literally running away from an incumbent President with positive approval ratings, so Ayotte might actually have a shot if this idiocy continues.

I have no idea why Hassan isn't attacking Ayotte on issues like abortion, guns, LGBT rights, Obamacare, etc. where Ayotte is way out of sync with most people in New Hampshire, a very liberal state.

Did you just say NH was a liberal state on guns?  Jesus, dude.

These days it's liberal on just about every issue. It's not the same state as it was in the 1980's and 90's anymore.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

If you have any reason to believe the polls are wrong, by all means share it. I could use some good news. Just don't say "angry NH women" please.

From where I see it, this looks like tossup/tilt-R.

Its pure toss up, no tilt.

Agreed. Hassan did lead in another poll, after all

Wasn't it an internal?

It was ordered by the campaign, but PPP doesn't change its methodology based on who pays for it.  It's not really an internal.

[Phony Moderate]

I have a nasty feeling that moderates are becoming more willing to vote Republican downballot while voting against Trump upballot. Which means that just about eff all will be achieved over the next four years.

[windjammer]

Well, Clinton is going to win NH by more than 5 points in the end,
Ayotte isn't overperforming Trump enough for the moment.

[Figueira]

Hassan is literally running away from an incumbent President with positive approval ratings, so Ayotte might actually have a shot if this idiocy continues.


I mean what kind of democrat puts this ad out in a lean democrat state?

Probably trying to prevent Ayotte from locking down the national security vote. The part about Guantanamo was bad, though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mark Begich did the same thing regarding the Obama question. Only problem is, he didn't win.

[Heisenberg]

Hassan is literally running away from an incumbent President with positive approval ratings, so Ayotte might actually have a shot if this idiocy continues.

I have no idea why Hassan isn't attacking Ayotte on issues like abortion, guns, LGBT rights, Obamacare, etc. where Ayotte is way out of sync with most people in New Hampshire, a very liberal state.

Abortion - Didn't work for Udall.
Guns - "Live Free or Die" state much?!? Anti-second amendment rhetoric would not go over well here.
LGBT - While there is plenty of activism here, it's about the 70th thing on voters' minds when they actually walk into the voting booth.
ObamaCare - While I don't support repealing the law, it's pretty clear Obamacare has some serious flaws that need to be addressed.

On the abortion issue, you are aware hat New Hampshire is VERY pro-choice, to a MUCH greater extent than Colorado. It has had a long tradition of prominent, pro-choice Republicans (Warren Rudman, David Souter, Charlie Bass, and Chris Sununu all come to mind off the top of my head, I'm sure there are many, many more). Pro-life politicians in New Hampshire are pretty rare, and typically don't do that well.

[DavidB.]

If n****rgate breaks, Hassan will win this race. If not, this race probably remains a tossup/tilt R.

[Kingpoleon]

This pollster was right on the mark in the 2014 Race - Shaheen +3:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-UMassLowell-7News-NH-Senate-Oct-2014_tcm18-155399.pdf

Hassan has to be freaking out over this poll.

Probably not?

My point was that if this poll is as accurate as it was in 2014, Hassan will be writing her political obituary.

Losing in a swing state by one percent doesn't end your political career.