What's the loose link in the freiwal?

[ursulahx]

Clinton's 273 freiwal (going by the HuffPo forecast) consists of twenty-one states plus DC:

Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, Virginia, Maine, New Mexico, Oregon, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, Delaware, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, California, Maryland, DC, Hawaii and Rhode Island.

Which of these states can be considered the most vulnerable, either to Trump or generally? In a battle analogy, where would you want your troops to fire because it has the thinnest protection? (Sorry, only analogy I could think of on the spot.)

Note that Ohio, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina are not part of the freiwal and therefore not included in the poll.

[°Leprechaun]

NH,ME,VA, in that order but I voted NH
(maybe NE?)
Another interesting question, which state is most likely to flip from
2012? IA? There are many (mostly Romney states, of course) but it is interesting that the one state
from 2012 which seems most likely to flip is IA, which could be bad news for Clinton, because
I think as of today her firewall is quite tenous and may be slightly under 270.
Also with every electoral vote mattering if Trump picks up steam in the last few days/weeks before 11/8
beware the faithless elector (one in WA says he won't vote for Clinton).

If Clinton loses NH but wins all of ME or visa versa (not likely at all that she would lose all of ME's electors)
she'd be at 269 which would make NE's one district a tipping point district.

I also think it's quite possible for her to sweep all swing states although maybe not IA but she could win NC,OH & AZ
for example as this election is totally unpredictable.

[°Leprechaun]

also either FL or NH could be the tipping point if it turns out to be a close election.
Both were critical in 2000, so have things really changed that much from 2000?

[Nym90]

New Hampshire is the most elastic so I voted for it. Either that or Colorado.

But to put things in perspective, Clinton has a better chance of winning Georgia than Trump has of winning either of the above.

[Nyvin]

Wisconsin or New Hampshire. 

Trump has zero chance in Pennsylvania or Virginia.    Nada zip none.

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin or New Hampshire. 

Trump has zero chance in Pennsylvania or Virginia.    Nada zip none.

Same in Wisconsin. He's locked out.

[Xing]

Probably Colorado or New Hampshire, but Hillary is more likely to win Missouri than lose either of those states, at this point.

[Blackacre]

Colorado; 538 rarely has her odds there that much higher than her odds of the Presidency in general

[eric82oslo]

Colorado; 538 rarely has her odds there that much higher than her odds of the Presidency in general

Bad karma can mean to be used in future civic books as an example of how not to comport oneself in Public or be used as instruction material in police training.

[Gass3268]

I'm starting to wonder if Florida should be added to the wall.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

NH, WI, and CO are all possible Trump states.

[MT Treasurer]

Wisconsin is the do or die freiwal state for him.

[ProudModerate2]

I voted NH, but maybe CO.
Also, the FireWall is definitely 272 not 273. You cannot consider ME-02 as part of the "wall" this election cycle.

[BlueSwan]

Funny fact: Atlas is seemingly the only place on the internet where the "blue firewall" is mockingly referred to as the "freiwal". At least that's what google told me.

Anyway, I voted for Wisconsin, because Iowa.

[°Leprechaun]

A lot depends on how the campaigns target certain states. Clinton might do well to focus more on NE, ME and VA and stop worrying about states like PA. She is making a considerable effort in FL which could very well be the tipping point state if she were to lose ME, NH or VA. OH also seems to be winnable.

[rafta_rafta]

Funny fact: Atlas is seemingly the only place on the internet where the "blue firewall" is mockingly referred to as the "freiwal". At least that's what google told me.

That's because it's a meme inspired by a poster who often misspelled words. I asked this in the Atlas Site forum

[F_S_USATN]

Heres what 538 thinks:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-watch-new-hampshire-for-signs-of-a-trump-comeback/
STATE            PROJECTED POP. VOTE MARGIN   TRUMP CHANCES OF WINNING
Colorado             Clinton +6.7                                   14.5%
Pennsylvania     Clinton +7.4                                   11.5
New Hampshire   Clinton +7.6                                   16.8
Minnesota              Clinton +7.8                                   12.1
Wisconsin              Clinton +7.9                                   11.2
Virginia              Clinton +8.2                                   9.2
Michigan              Clinton +9.1                                   7.7

[eric82oslo]

NH, WI, and CO are all possible Trump states.

Colorado is the single most highly educated of all 50 states. There's less than a 0% chance that it will even consider going to Trump. Even Massachusetts and Virginia will go for Trump sooner. Wisconsin is almost equally unlikely.

[ursulahx]

Clinton might do well to focus more on NE

Do you mean NH, or do you know something we all don't?

[°Leprechaun]

Clinton might do well to focus more on NE

Do you mean NH, or do you know something we all don't?

no and no.. I mean Nebraska although a very very strong Republican state (hint 2008)

[Senator-elect Spark]

New Hampshire, Colorado