What's the Matter with Wisconsin?

[Blair]

I'm seeing a lot of chatter, both based on polls and various media reports saying that Ron Johnson seems to be pulling level, and could somehow win the Senate race? I've ignored this race since the moment Feingold entered because it was assumed that he'd easily win it.

What's happening?

[Bismarck]

While a lot of spending has pulled out, some conservative groups have stayed in and are helping Johnson. He is a pretty good politician too, his 2010 campaign against Feingold was incredibly well done. I just read an article that said he has been able to push his favorables into positive territory over the past few months as well.

[Xing]

We've had, what, three polls suggesting a tightening race (one of which was from a joke pollster)? I doubt that Democrats would ignore this race if they thought Feingold was in significant trouble, and Republicans would be spending big here if they thought Johnson had a real chance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We've had, what, three polls suggesting a tightening race (one of which was from a joke pollster)? I doubt that Democrats would ignore this race if they thought Feingold was in significant trouble, and Republicans would be spending big here if they thought Johnson had a real chance.

Three polls is not nothing. The probability of three outliers in the same direction coming out in a row is next to nil. The race HAS tightened.

I just hope Russ is aware of it, and working out to make sure it doesn't tighten further.

[Gass3268]

Johnson refused to distance himself from Donald Trump tonight during a debate with Feingold tonight. Said he supported him. Also advocated putting ground troops into Syria, opposed paid family leave, and blamed Feingold for the VA scandal Tomah, WI that didn't occur until 2014 (4 years after Feingold was defeated). 

[Dr. Arch]

Johnson refused to distance himself from Donald Trump tonight during a debate with Feingold tonight. Said he supported him. Also advocated putting ground troops into Syria, opposed paid family leave, and blamed Feingold for the VA scandal Tomah, WI that didn't occur until 2014 (4 years after Feingold was defeated). 

Johnson was dead meat and is now even more dead meat.

[Gass3268]

Johnson has been running some pretty good ads, it seems. I still think Feingold should win, but it could be closer than expected (49/47 or so).

My guess is the margin will be pretty close to Baldwin/Thompson 2012. Worst thing that can happen for Johnson is soft Trump supporters just decide to stay home, which is possible.

[ElectionsGuy]

Debate was tonight, both of them did pretty well, no clear winner. This debate was SO innocent compared to the presidential ones.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We need WI. We can't afford uncertainty here. The DSCC should be ready to get back in if needed to match Johnson's spending.

[Vosem]

One of the things that nobody's mentioned here is that Feingold was caught on tape at a fundraiser in California suggesting that, when she is elected President, Hillary should use executive orders to curb gun rights (or, I think what he's saying on the tape is actually sort of ambiguous, but the Johnson campaign is spinning it that way): http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/13/feingold-talks-guns-clinton-tape/91997156/

Gun control doesn't play well much of anywhere outside urban areas and, for some reason, certain East Coast suburbs. Wisconsin, where Democrats still depend on a large contingent of rural white voters casting their ballot for the Democratic candidate, is a place where this would hurt more than average, too.

[TJ in Oregon]

There's what Vosem posted, but I think what is going on is that swing voters are realizing Hillary is going to win the presidential election, but still despise her (even if they are voting for her) and then are deciding to vote for the Republicans downballot to ensure split control. There's not much evidence for this theory, but I have trouble otherwise explaining why Johnson's numbers are improving while Trump's are in the midst of a nosedive.

[Torie]

There's what Vosem posted, but I think what is going on is that swing voters are realizing Hillary is going to win the presidential election, but still despise her (even if they are voting for her) and then are deciding to vote for the Republicans downballot to ensure split control. There's not much evidence for this theory, but I have trouble otherwise explaining why Johnson's numbers are improving while Trump's are in the midst of a nosedive.

That seems to be happening in a lot of places. There is not much evidence yet of down ballot Pub erosion, other than damaged candidates like Garrett (sp) in Nj-05, and maybe Comstock, who along with Dold is in the eye of the anti Trump storm. Maybe that is to be expected, when so many voters dislike both candidates, and dislike them a lot. Teachout is now really pushing that Faso is a Trumpster  in her campaign, as Faso parries with verbal gymnastics. So maybe there will be more down ballot damage, as the Dems begin to really emphasize that theme as Trump ceases to be competitive.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

There's what Vosem posted, but I think what is going on is that swing voters are realizing Hillary is going to win the presidential election, but still despise her (even if they are voting for her) and then are deciding to vote for the Republicans downballot to ensure split control. There's not much evidence for this theory, but I have trouble otherwise explaining why Johnson's numbers are improving while Trump's are in the midst of a nosedive.

That seems to be happening in a lot of places. There is not much evidence yet of down ballot Pub erosion, other than damaged candidates like Garrett (sp) in Nj-05, and maybe Comstock, who along with Dold is in the eye of the anti Trump storm. Maybe that is to be expected, when so many voters dislike both candidates, and dislike them a lot. Teachout is now really pushing that Faso is a Trumpster  in her campaign, as Faso parries with verbal gymnastics. So maybe there will be more down ballot damage, as the Dems begin to really emphasize that theme as Trump ceases to be competitive.

I don't think voters need to be quite as strategic as all that for this effect to occur. Clinton's campaign messaging has essentially boiled down to "Trump is a special kind of evil, so all y'all moderate Republicans should vote for me!" 

This works exceedingly well at getting moderate Pubs to vote for HRC, but rolling out the GOP defense establishment for HRC also had the effect of 'normalizing' a vote for other GOP candidates. The converse of the "Trump is a special evil" messaging coming  from the Clinton camp is, "The rest of the GOP is okay." Ticket splitting for a moderate Pub seems natural in this situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about all the candidates who have supported or praised him, calling him "absolutely" a good role model for kids etc? Surely that ought to reflect poorly on them.

[Nym90]

It was probably always unrealistic that he'd do worse than Trump in the state, so a lot of what we're seeing is just natural tightening.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There's what Vosem posted, but I think what is going on is that swing voters are realizing Hillary is going to win the presidential election, but still despise her (even if they are voting for her) and then are deciding to vote for the Republicans downballot to ensure split control. There's not much evidence for this theory, but I have trouble otherwise explaining why Johnson's numbers are improving while Trump's are in the midst of a nosedive.

That seems to be happening in a lot of places. There is not much evidence yet of down ballot Pub erosion, other than damaged candidates like Garrett (sp) in Nj-05, and maybe Comstock, who along with Dold is in the eye of the anti Trump storm. Maybe that is to be expected, when so many voters dislike both candidates, and dislike them a lot. Teachout is now really pushing that Faso is a Trumpster  in her campaign, as Faso parries with verbal gymnastics. So maybe there will be more down ballot damage, as the Dems begin to really emphasize that theme as Trump ceases to be competitive.

The only flaw in this theory though is that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Wisconsin. The state hasn't gone Republican since 1984.

[Torie]

There's what Vosem posted, but I think what is going on is that swing voters are realizing Hillary is going to win the presidential election, but still despise her (even if they are voting for her) and then are deciding to vote for the Republicans downballot to ensure split control. There's not much evidence for this theory, but I have trouble otherwise explaining why Johnson's numbers are improving while Trump's are in the midst of a nosedive.

That seems to be happening in a lot of places. There is not much evidence yet of down ballot Pub erosion, other than damaged candidates like Garrett (sp) in Nj-05, and maybe Comstock, who along with Dold is in the eye of the anti Trump storm. Maybe that is to be expected, when so many voters dislike both candidates, and dislike them a lot. Teachout is now really pushing that Faso is a Trumpster  in her campaign, as Faso parries with verbal gymnastics. So maybe there will be more down ballot damage, as the Dems begin to really emphasize that theme as Trump ceases to be competitive.

The only flaw in this theory though is that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Wisconsin. The state hasn't gone Republican since 1984.

Yes, particularly in a POTUS election year, when more Dems show up to vote, Johnson would need some Dems who don't like Hillary, and want her to be constrained as POTUS by having the other party in charge of Congress.  I would be very surprised if Johnson won however. Among other things, I don't think he is very impressive in what he says or does. He is no Portman.

[Gass3268]

It's interesting, the polling now looks like the Presidential race will be more like 2008 while the Senate race will be more like 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There's what Vosem posted, but I think what is going on is that swing voters are realizing Hillary is going to win the presidential election, but still despise her (even if they are voting for her) and then are deciding to vote for the Republicans downballot to ensure split control. There's not much evidence for this theory, but I have trouble otherwise explaining why Johnson's numbers are improving while Trump's are in the midst of a nosedive.

That seems to be happening in a lot of places. There is not much evidence yet of down ballot Pub erosion, other than damaged candidates like Garrett (sp) in Nj-05, and maybe Comstock, who along with Dold is in the eye of the anti Trump storm. Maybe that is to be expected, when so many voters dislike both candidates, and dislike them a lot. Teachout is now really pushing that Faso is a Trumpster  in her campaign, as Faso parries with verbal gymnastics. So maybe there will be more down ballot damage, as the Dems begin to really emphasize that theme as Trump ceases to be competitive.

The only flaw in this theory though is that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Wisconsin. The state hasn't gone Republican since 1984.

Yes, particularly in a POTUS election year, when more Dems show up to vote, Johnson would need some Dems who don't like Hillary, and want her to be constrained as POTUS by having the other party in charge of Congress.  I would be very surprised if Johnson won however. Among other things, I don't think he is very impressive in what he says or does. He is no Portman.

The Democrats who don't like Hillary are almost exclusively lefties who consider her insufficiently liberal. Allow me to doubt that these people will vote for a teabagger like Johnson to "constrain" her from enacting liberal policies.

[Indy Texas]

Johnson refused to distance himself from Donald Trump tonight during a debate with Feingold tonight. Said he supported him. Also advocated putting ground troops into Syria, opposed paid family leave, and blamed Feingold for the VA scandal Tomah, WI that didn't occur until 2014 (4 years after Feingold was defeated). 

Johnson was dead meat and is now even more dead meat.

He's going the high-risk, high-reward route. He's guaranteed to hold the GOP base but may alienate the infinitiessimal number of moderate swing voters left there. The alternative was throwing Trump under the bus in hope of gaining those voters but fragmenting his base.

[sg0508]

Democrats ALWAYS finish strong in WI.  Try to remember that back in '10, Feingold almost stole that race in the end. It was much closer than most polls showed.  In '04, George Bush was up double digits in WI in September and then was up in Oct and lost to Kerry. 

[136or142]

There's what Vosem posted, but I think what is going on is that swing voters are realizing Hillary is going to win the presidential election, but still despise her (even if they are voting for her) and then are deciding to vote for the Republicans downballot to ensure split control. There's not much evidence for this theory, but I have trouble otherwise explaining why Johnson's numbers are improving while Trump's are in the midst of a nosedive.

That seems to be happening in a lot of places. There is not much evidence yet of down ballot Pub erosion, other than damaged candidates like Garrett (sp) in Nj-05, and maybe Comstock, who along with Dold is in the eye of the anti Trump storm. Maybe that is to be expected, when so many voters dislike both candidates, and dislike them a lot. Teachout is now really pushing that Faso is a Trumpster  in her campaign, as Faso parries with verbal gymnastics. So maybe there will be more down ballot damage, as the Dems begin to really emphasize that theme as Trump ceases to be competitive.

The only flaw in this theory though is that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Wisconsin. The state hasn't gone Republican since 1984.

Yes, particularly in a POTUS election year, when more Dems show up to vote, Johnson would need some Dems who don't like Hillary, and want her to be constrained as POTUS by having the other party in charge of Congress.  I would be very surprised if Johnson won however. Among other things, I don't think he is very impressive in what he says or does. He is no Portman.

Johnson is a poor man's Portman.

[Skye]

Johnson has been running some pretty good ads, it seems. I still think Feingold should win, but it could be closer than expected (49/47 or so).

Like the one where a baby pees on him?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB2_nlW59Xs