538 Senate Forecast Megathread: Currently Projecting 6 Democratic Pick Ups

[Gass3268]

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[Mr. Smith]

Is the DSCC going to take the money they beat out of Murphy and give it to the Kentucky Dems then, or are they going to come to their senses and give Murphy the money he needs to win?

Murphy would be lucky to pull a Sestak at this point.

[Blackacre]

Is the DSCC going to take the money they beat out of Murphy and give it to the Kentucky Dems then, or are they going to come to their senses and give Murphy the money he needs to win?

Murphy would be lucky to pull a Sestak at this point.

a what? Joe Sestak lost the general. That's why we're talking up McGinty and not defending Sestak's seat. Or is there something Im missing?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd love to believe these numbers, but this seems waaay too optimistic. Generic congressional polls don't mean sh*t.

[Gass3268]

I'd love to believe these numbers, but this seems waaay too optimistic. Generic congressional polls don't mean sh*t.

The big jump recently came from negative trend lines for the Republican candidates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd love to believe these numbers, but this seems waaay too optimistic. Generic congressional polls don't mean sh*t.

The big jump recently came from negative trend lines for the Republican candidates.

Negative trendlines where? In Nevada maaaaaaybe (though the polls don't really seem to agree there), in MO and NC it's only due to junky internet polls. PA and NH, meanwhile, haven't shown any movement.

[Figueira]

I'm not quite as pessimistic as Antonio, but I'm also concerned that something is wrong with the model. The Democrats will probably win the Senate, but it isn't guaranteed.

[Gass3268]

Polls-Plus - 74.9% D
Polls-Only - 72.6% D
Nowcast - 75.0%


Odds (Using Polls-Plus):

Colorado 97.7% (D)
Wisconsin 94.3% (D)
Illinois 90.2 (D)
Indiana 71.8% (D)
New Hampshire 62.8% (D)
Missouri 60.7% (D)
Nevada 59.0% (D)
Pennsylvania 58.1% (D)
-------------------------------
North Carolina 53.6% (R)
Florida 72.7% (R)
Kentucky 73.6% (R)
Louisiana 84.2% (R)
Arizona 91.8% (R)
Ohio 95.8% (R)

California 91.9% (Harris)

They are currently projecting 6 Democratic pick ups.

[Mr. Smith]

Is the DSCC going to take the money they beat out of Murphy and give it to the Kentucky Dems then, or are they going to come to their senses and give Murphy the money he needs to win?

Murphy would be lucky to pull a Sestak at this point.

a what? Joe Sestak lost the general. That's why we're talking up McGinty and not defending Sestak's seat. Or is there something Im missing?

You're missing what I'm saying.

DSCC and the Establishment heads in 2010 were pricks to poor Sestak because he dared challenge  DINO Specter.

But he managed to barely lose to Toomey in spite of being thrown under the bus.


I do not believe Murphy will be able to pull it off.

[BuckeyeNut]

Maddening that MO looks more winnable than PA (even if both are in the (D) camp). Shame about NC, damn shame. Almost makes me wish DSCC had pulled out of FL earlier to help Ross. Still not entirely sure she won't pull through with Cooper and Clinton at the top of the ticket.

[Figueira]

NC is still winnable, although I'm currently giving Burr the edge.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Maddening that MO looks more winnable than PA (even if both are in the (D) camp). Shame about NC, damn shame. Almost makes me wish DSCC had pulled out of FL earlier to help Ross. Still not entirely sure she won't pull through with Cooper and Clinton at the top of the ticket.

We want to elect the most attractive member of the U.S. Senate

[Gass3268]

Polls-Plus - 72.8% D
Polls-Only - 71.6% D
Nowcast - 70.8% D


Odds (Using Polls-Plus):

Colorado 97.5% (D)
Wisconsin 93.6% (D)
Illinois 89.5 (D)
Indiana 70.2% (D)
New Hampshire 67.1% (D)
Missouri 58.9% (D)
Nevada 57.1% (D)
Pennsylvania 55.4% (D)
-------------------------------
North Carolina 56.9% (R)
Kentucky 73.5% (R)
Florida 74.3% (R)
Louisiana 84.1% (R)
Arizona 92.7% (R)
Ohio 95.9% (R)

California 91.6% (Harris)

They are currently projecting 6 Democratic pick ups.

Harry Enten says that the Last Week Has Been Very Kind To Democrats’ Hopes For A Majority

[nclib]

Maddening that MO looks more winnable than PA (even if both are in the (D) camp). Shame about NC, damn shame. Almost makes me wish DSCC had pulled out of FL earlier to help Ross. Still not entirely sure she won't pull through with Cooper and Clinton at the top of the ticket.

Are you referring to Burr's recent ad, or is there anything else at work? Agree that she could still win, and 538 gives her a 38.4% chance. I would love to see her win, I knew her when she was at the ACLU and have seen her over the years at Democratic Party events.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dem chances are falling again. I think their models are a bit too sensitive.

[Vosem]

Honestly, while the low level of polling in both states is absolutely maddening, I do suspect that Kander is a likelier winner than McGinty at this point. Blunt has been running completely asleep, while Toomey (and Kander, obviously) has been running a very good, solid campaign. Still possible, maybe likely, that Hillary's PA victory pulls in McGinty (someone better than Emerson needs to confirm Quinnipiac's findings here), but Toomey is by no means dead.

[Vega]

Honestly, while the low level of polling in both states is absolutely maddening, I do suspect that Kander is a likelier winner than McGinty at this point. Blunt has been running completely asleep, while Toomey (and Kander, obviously) has been running a very good, solid campaign. Still possible, maybe likely, that Hillary's PA victory pulls in McGinty (someone better than Emerson needs to confirm Quinnipiac's findings here), but Toomey is by no means dead.

Yeah, this isn't far from the truth. McGinty has been getting slammed with negative advertising from Toomey (curiously they're attacks from the left on her) and is generally be portrayed terribly.

Really a shame the Democrats did so terribly in 2014 and lost seats like CO and IA, it made this year 10 times harder when it should even now be a slam dunk.

[Blackacre]

Honestly, while the low level of polling in both states is absolutely maddening, I do suspect that Kander is a likelier winner than McGinty at this point. Blunt has been running completely asleep, while Toomey (and Kander, obviously) has been running a very good, solid campaign. Still possible, maybe likely, that Hillary's PA victory pulls in McGinty (someone better than Emerson needs to confirm Quinnipiac's findings here), but Toomey is by no means dead.

Yeah, this isn't far from the truth. McGinty has been getting slammed with negative advertising from Toomey (curiously they're attacks from the left on her) and is generally be portrayed terribly.

Really a shame the Democrats did so terribly in 2014 and lost seats like CO and IA, it made this year 10 times harder when it should even now be a slam dunk.

Yeah, 538's model would be giving the Dems a 95% chance to win the upper chamber if we won Colorado and one of Iowa or NC last time around and only had to pick up a net of 2-3 seats to take back the upper chamber. That would be a given with IL and WI, plus holding onto Nevada or taking Indiana. Plus PA/MO/NC/FL/KY/LA. If only we were actually a smart party

[Gass3268]

Polls-Plus - 74.1% D
Polls-Only - 72.4% D
Nowcast - 77.5% D

Odds (Using Polls-Plus):

Colorado 97.9% (D)
Wisconsin 94.6% (D)
Illinois 91.9 (D)
Indiana 69.9% (D)
New Hampshire 66.8% (D)
Missouri 61.7% (D)
Pennsylvania 57.8% (D)
Nevada 56.8% (D)
-------------------------------
North Carolina 59.5% (R)
Kentucky 72.0% (R)
Florida 77.3% (R)
Louisiana 85.1% (R)
Arizona 93.1% (R)
Ohio 96.0% (R)

California 91.7% (Harris)

They are currently projecting 6 Democratic pick ups.

[Nyvin]

Honestly, while the low level of polling in both states is absolutely maddening, I do suspect that Kander is a likelier winner than McGinty at this point. Blunt has been running completely asleep, while Toomey (and Kander, obviously) has been running a very good, solid campaign. Still possible, maybe likely, that Hillary's PA victory pulls in McGinty (someone better than Emerson needs to confirm Quinnipiac's findings here), but Toomey is by no means dead.

Yeah, this isn't far from the truth. McGinty has been getting slammed with negative advertising from Toomey (curiously they're attacks from the left on her) and is generally be portrayed terribly.

Really a shame the Democrats did so terribly in 2014 and lost seats like CO and IA, it made this year 10 times harder when it should even now be a slam dunk.

The Colorado loss was tragic.   I think Iowa is just not friendly to Democrats anymore though.   North Carolina with Kay Hagan was the seat that should've been won.   

Holding those two would've made this all SOOOO much easier.

BTW- It's just crazy that Rubio is being given better chances to win than Paul, wtf.    I really can't buy that Murphy is that dead already.

[Blackacre]

Update: A poll came out in Kentucky that showed a normal race in line with what we all expected. Paul's chances went from 73% to 87%.

[Blackacre]

second update: Blunt is back to being a favourite in Missouri

[Figueira]

second update: Blunt is back to being a favourite in Missouri

Kind of confirms what I already suspected. Still Tossup, Tilt R.

[jaichind]

538 odds of Senate control now at around 50/50 for all 3 models.  Of course part of it is from Trump's higher chances in the Prez contest. Assuming Trump loses GOP chances of control which is 51 seats seems to be around 44%-45%

[Figueira]

The model is going to be around 50% (give or take like 5%) on Election Day. The Senate is basically a coin flip at this point; I would say the Democrats have a very, very slight advantage.