Why did Dukakis lose Maryland?

[TDAS04]

It seems kind of odd.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Willie Horton committed his (post release) crimes in Maryland.

[Nym90]

That and it's very suburban, and Dukakis did very poorly in suburbs in 1988 (in part due to issues such as crime).

[Arbitrage1980]

It's hard to imagine now, but crime was one of the 3 biggest issues in the 1988 campaign. White suburban voters were terrified of black on white crime, and Willie Horton's vicious rape of a white woman in Maryland while her husband watched, swung the state to Bush. Even then, he won Maryland by just 2.9%.

Bush beat Dukakis in the popular vote by 7.8%, which is a bit higher than Obama 2008, but he got 426 electoral votes due to close victories in California, Illinois, Pennsylvania. Crime swung all those states to Bush. But in the rural farm areas that are not affected by crime, Dukakis outperformed his national numbers. He won Iowa by 10 points, won Minnesota and Wisconsin, lost Missouri by less than 4 points, and South Dakota by about 6 points.

[Blair]

There's a good CNN program about it called the Race to Victory which shows how Dukakis was very very popular at first, and was leading in the polls.

1.) The rumours about his mental health
2.) His awful debate performance.
3.) His unwillingness to punch back
4.) Weak on defence

[Indy Texas]

From 1968 to 1992, white suburban voters were convinced that legions of crack-smoking black men were going to randomly burst through their living room wall like the Kool Aid Man and methodically take turns raping their wives and daughters before carrying away absurdly heavy CRT television sets.

[Podgy the Bear]

Bush really ran his 1988 political race from much of the Reagan strategy (go national, not sectional like today).   And he was pretty successful with this.  He ran very well in the Northeast--picking up doubtful states such as Pennsylvania and Maryland and Connecticut.  And he ran ahead of the national average in New Jersey.  Basically, he did extremely well with the suburban vote.

Of course, all of this changed by 1992--and this continues to the Republican struggles of today. 

[Kingpoleon]

George H. W. Bush got more votes.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

The Willie Horton thing was big in Maryland.

There were other factors as well.  Maryland had heated controversies about school busing for integration in the 1970s, and 1988 was not too far removed from that.  Maryland also had a certain amount of suburban voters who, back then, were liberal Republicans.  (Some of the last of the type.) 

[hopper]

From 1968 to 1992, white suburban voters were convinced that legions of crack-smoking black men were going to randomly burst through their living room wall like the Kool Aid Man and methodically take turns raping their wives and daughters before carrying away absurdly heavy CRT television sets.

1988.

[RohnertPark]

George H. W. Bush got more votes.

We've got some top election insight going on right here.  The CNN series "Race for the White House" also did an episode on it, where they came to the same conclusion, but it took them 45 minutes.

[Sedona]

From 1968 to 1992, white suburban voters were convinced that legions of crack-smoking black men were going to randomly burst through their living room wall like the Kool Aid Man and methodically take turns raping their wives and daughters before carrying away absurdly heavy CRT television sets.

A good portion of the white population still thinks that today, unfortunately enough.

Except now it's with flat screen TVs.

[Indy Texas]

From 1968 to 1992, white suburban voters were convinced that legions of crack-smoking black men were going to randomly burst through their living room wall like the Kool Aid Man and methodically take turns raping their wives and daughters before carrying away absurdly heavy CRT television sets.

1988.

Bill Clinton ran as very "tough on crime" in 1992. That was the last national election where it was a significant issue.

[Indy Texas]

From 1968 to 1992, white suburban voters were convinced that legions of crack-smoking black men were going to randomly burst through their living room wall like the Kool Aid Man and methodically take turns raping their wives and daughters before carrying away absurdly heavy CRT television sets.

A good portion of the white population still thinks that today, unfortunately enough.

Except now it's with flat screen TVs.

Which is even more absurd given that TVs are now so cheap and commoditized that stealing them from people's houses to resell isn't even worth the trouble.

[Landslide Lyndon]

George H. W. Bush got more votes.

You're so smart.

[Lothal1]

In  the most important Baltimore suburban counties, Bush won: 57.41% (Baltimore County) 56.49% (Howard), 66.03% (Harford) 64% (Anne Arundel) and 71.63% (Carroll County).  Also H. W. was able to get a high enough margin of victory in the rural counties to win unlike in 1980 where Carter was able to do well enough in the Eastern Shore and SOMD to outvote the not-PG suburban counties.

[The Arizonan]

That and it's very suburban, and Dukakis did very poorly in suburbs in 1988 (in part due to issues such as crime).

It's interesting to note that Republican presidential candidates used to perform well in suburbs in general between 1964 and 1992. This is why they kept winning states like New Jersey, Illinois, and Connecticut until Bill Clinton demolished the "Republican wall".

[Badger]

There was a gun control initiative on the ballot that brought out conservatives in droves.

[hopper]

From 1968 to 1992, white suburban voters were convinced that legions of crack-smoking black men were going to randomly burst through their living room wall like the Kool Aid Man and methodically take turns raping their wives and daughters before carrying away absurdly heavy CRT television sets.

A good portion of the white population still thinks that today, unfortunately enough.

I'm white and I don't think like that at all.

[Wade McDaniel]

It's hard to imagine now, but crime was one of the 3 biggest issues in the 1988 campaign. White suburban voters were terrified of black on white crime, and Willie Horton's vicious rape of a white woman in Maryland while her husband watched, swung the state to Bush. Even then, he won Maryland by just 2.9%.

Bush beat Dukakis in the popular vote by 7.8%, which is a bit higher than Obama 2008, but he got 426 electoral votes due to close victories in California, Illinois, Pennsylvania. Crime swung all those states to Bush. But in the rural farm areas that are not affected by crime, Dukakis outperformed his national numbers. He won Iowa by 10 points, won Minnesota and Wisconsin, lost Missouri by less than 4 points, and South Dakota by about 6 points.

You think Bush won PA because of crime?

[136or142]

There was a gun control initiative on the ballot that brought out conservatives in droves.

Yes, this is the explanation that was given at the time.  

It was an initiative to ban the so-called Saturday Night Special guns.  Even though the initiative passed, as Badger wrote, it brought out a lot of conservatives who wouldn't have otherwise voted.

[Wade McDaniel]

There was a gun control initiative on the ballot that brought out conservatives in droves.

This sounds more like it.

[hcallega]

In  the most important Baltimore suburban counties, Bush won: 57.41% (Baltimore County) 56.49% (Howard), 66.03% (Harford) 64% (Anne Arundel) and 71.63% (Carroll County).  Also H. W. was able to get a high enough margin of victory in the rural counties to win unlike in 1980 where Carter was able to do well enough in the Eastern Shore and SOMD to outvote the not-PG suburban counties.

This is pretty much the case. Compare 1988 to 2008: Bush ran extremely well in traditionally Democratic Baltimore County, dominated in the state's rural counties, and nearly won (!) Montgomery County, which was the old bastion of liberal GOP politics but is most certainly not a conservative area in any way.

The causes? I think crime was a huge factor, as was the gun control referendum in terms of driving up turnout in the conservative, rural areas of the state.

Finally, Maryland is a great example of a state that flippped from marginally Dem to strong Dem do in large part to the Clinton-era realignment. A lot of voters in the DC burbs fillped based on social issues and the perception that a) the GOP was the party of the South/Evangelicals and b) that the Democrats were tough enough on crime and sensible on economic issues. The Bush and Obama presidencies have further cemented this tend.

[TDAS04]

Just look at how the neighboring sates of Maryland and West Virginia reversed themselves.