Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Utah

[amdcpus]

Likely R, Trump 34 - Clinton 31 - Johnson 23 - McMillan 11 - Others 1

I conducted a poll of 500 Utah voters from October 12-13 with Google Consumer Surveys, weighted it according gender, age, voting electorate, and turnout by age, and got the following numbers:

Trump 29%

McMullin 23%

Clinton 21%

Johnson 7%

[Spark]

Toss-up.

Trump 29
McMullin 26
Clinton 22
Johnson 23

[pbrower2a]

Obama would win Utah if he were running against Trump.

The Mormon (LDS) hierarchy will decide Utah. Non-Mormons will largely split between Clinton and the LDS choice and completely reject Trump. Utah could go 34-30-30-6...

If Romney were running a re-election campaign here he would be close to getting 80% of the vote. Donald Trump is not Mitt Romney. 

[Maxwell]

Toss-up.

Trump 29
McMullin 26
Clinton 22
Johnson 23

lol she's not going to get less than Gary Johnson - Johnsons polling around 10%.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Toss-up.

Trump 29
McMullin 26
Clinton 22
Johnson 23

lol she's not going to get less than Gary Johnson - Johnsons polling around 10%.

I'm guessing Johnson will get about 8% by the time all is said and done in Utah.

[Tiger front]

Toss-up.
Trump 32%
McMullin 29%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 8%
Other 3%

[AGA]

Why do more people think that McMullin will win Utah than Trump? He is not even leading in any of the polls. I acknowledge that there is still a good chance of it happening, but a third party has not won a state since 1968.

[Thomas D]

Toss up

McMullin  34
Trump     30
Clinton    28
Johnson   7

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Why do more people think that McMullin will win Utah than Trump? He is not even leading in any of the polls. I acknowledge that there is still a good chance of it happening, but a third party has not won a state since 1968.

McMullin's 20% came out of almost nowhere. He was within the margin of error for first according to the Y2 poll. Mormons do not like Trump, they don't really like Hillary, and Johnson has been a bit loopy this cycle. McMulin was born in Utah, went to BYU, and is Mormon. Many Utah politicians have revoked their endorsements of Donald Trump and rumors suggest that many of them are looking into McMullin. The news of him being at 20% or more will expose more voters to him. Clinton and Trump are hungry unpopular and the Mormons of Utah (and Idaho) are looking for an alternative.

[Crumpets]

Why do more people think that McMullin will win Utah than Trump? He is not even leading in any of the polls. I acknowledge that there is still a good chance of it happening, but a third party has not won a state since 1968.

McMullin's 20% came out of almost nowhere. He was within the margin of error for first according to the Y2 poll. Mormons do not like Trump, they don't really like Hillary, and Johnson has been a bit loopy this cycle. McMulin was born in Utah, went to BYU, and is Mormon. Many Utah politicians have revoked their endorsements of Donald Trump and rumors suggest that many of them are looking into McMullin. The news of him being at 20% or more will expose more voters to him. Clinton and Trump are hungry unpopular and the Mormons of Utah (and Idaho) are looking for an alternative.

Not to mention the fact that he has an 80% approval rating among those who have heard of him, which 2/3 of the state has not.

[peterthlee]

Likely R
Trump 37-32-31
(Trump 37
Clinton 32
McMullin 24
Johnson et al 7)

[Gass3268]

Went back and made some adjustments:

Florida -> Lean Clinton
Michigan -> Safe Clinton

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think this is one of those polls that needs a lean, likely, and safe option for "other".

Agreed.

This is the hardest state to predict. I don't think Trump will crack 40% here, nor do I think Hillary will win by more than 1%. Not sure how much funding McMullin has, but even a couple radio ads and local media appearances could go a long way. Johnson had his chance and blew it

I'm saying lean R and a shot in the dark for the popular vote:

Trump: 37%
Clinton: 32%
McMullin: 25%
Johnson: 6%

It'll be fun to watch a UK parliament result occur in the presidential election

Honestly, even if Johnson had ran the most amazing campaign possible he'd still be losing to McMullin in Utah. The state is basically a mormon theocracy, and they like being that way. All McMullin had to do to get attention is tell people he's a mormon. It's laughably easy.

[Gass3268]

I think this is one of those polls that needs a lean, likely, and safe option for "other".

Agreed.

This is the hardest state to predict. I don't think Trump will crack 40% here, nor do I think Hillary will win by more than 1%. Not sure how much funding McMullin has, but even a couple radio ads and local media appearances could go a long way. Johnson had his chance and blew it

I'm saying lean R and a shot in the dark for the popular vote:

Trump: 37%
Clinton: 32%
McMullin: 25%
Johnson: 6%

It'll be fun to watch a UK parliament result occur in the presidential election

Honestly, even if Johnson had ran the most amazing campaign possible he'd still be losing to McMullin in Utah. The state is basically a mormon theocracy, and they like being that way. All McMullin had to do to get attention is tell people he's a mormon. It's laughably easy.

You see some of the crowds he's getting in Idaho, pretty crazy.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I think this is one of those polls that needs a lean, likely, and safe option for "other".

Agreed.

This is the hardest state to predict. I don't think Trump will crack 40% here, nor do I think Hillary will win by more than 1%. Not sure how much funding McMullin has, but even a couple radio ads and local media appearances could go a long way. Johnson had his chance and blew it

I'm saying lean R and a shot in the dark for the popular vote:

Trump: 37%
Clinton: 32%
McMullin: 25%
Johnson: 6%

It'll be fun to watch a UK parliament result occur in the presidential election

Honestly, even if Johnson had ran the most amazing campaign possible he'd still be losing to McMullin in Utah. The state is basically a mormon theocracy, and they like being that way. All McMullin had to do to get attention is tell people he's a mormon. It's laughably easy.

You see some of the crowds he's getting in Idaho, pretty crazy.

The part of Idaho with those rallies (Rexburg and Idaho Falls) is basically North Utah. He won't win Idaho, but he could easily get 10% there, maybe 15%.



Johnson was a pretty poor fit and was only getting traction as a protest candidate. Now the Mormons have someone that they can believe in and feel good about voting for.

[ElectionsGuy]

I know I emphasized the runoff, but voting in this poll is really important to since it determines the runoff. It already seems like the results are moving in McMullin's (Other) direction but I still want to be absolutely sure. I'm going to update my result here:

42 Trump
28 McMullin
24 Clinton

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican.

Trump: 35%
McMuffin: 30%
Clinton: 23%
Johnson: 8%