VA-10: Dem Internal Finds Bennett up 4 on Comstock

[Kevin]

Take it for what you will and I'm somewhat skeptical but an internal is finding LuAnn Bennett up 4 on incumbent Barbara Comstock in VA-10 which is an R+2 seat.

If it is true this def doesn't bode well for GOP House candidates in other single digit districts

http://bluevirginia.us/2016/10/new-internal-poll-luann-bennett

[swf541]

As someone who has seen way to many ads for this race, its quite a nasty race and with the republican implosion in the region its possible.

[heatcharger]

Finally an internal comes out.

Looks like Comstock is collapsing based on their past polls, which is completely believable:

May 2016: Comstock 47%, Bennett 36%

Sept. 2016: Comstock 45%, Bennett 41%

Oct. 2016: Bennett 46%, Comstock 42%

This race is a very slight Tilt R in my opinion.

[Xing]

I'm skeptical as well, but Comstock probably isn't going to be helped by Trump's abysmal performance in this state. Comstock is still probably favored, but maybe we should keep an eye on this race.

[Kevin]

I don't think that Bennett is up by four, but this race is definitely competitive. I'm not sure why people think that Bennett is a sacrificial lamb or something. If Clinton wins Virginia by double digits then I definitely could see Bennett being pulled over the line.

For one she's a complete carpetbagger to the district is the big reason.

However, I agree if Trump loses badly enough in VA even she could win.

[heatcharger]

I don't think that Bennett is up by four, but this race is definitely competitive. I'm not sure why people think that Bennett is a sacrificial lamb or something. If Clinton wins Virginia by double digits then I definitely could see Bennett being pulled over the line.

For one she's a complete carpetbagger to the district is the big reason.

However, I agree if Trump loses badly enough in VA even she could win.

Literally no one cares about Bennett being a carpetbagger except for people who were already 100% gonna vote for Comstock. There's no concept of "Virginia values" or anything like that, which makes this area so great.  Actually, it makes her more relatable to this district considering so many people are transplants.

[Young Conservative]

I seriously doubt the Rep. Comstock will lose. I want her to run for senate .

[Maxwell]

If Virginia turns out to a landslide for Clinton (which I think it's very possible), then I think Comstock loses. If Trump somehow regains some level of competitiveness in Virginia (As in losing by 5-6) then Comstock probably wins.

Comstock is pretty odious and would love to see her knocked off, personally.

[Vosem]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump is likely down 12-16 points in VA10. That is a large undertow on Comstock if things don't get better for him. But one possible plus for the congresswoman here is that VA10 is extremely highly educated, and is a 30 minute drive from DC. They are politically aware and more likely to split a ticket.

[Maxwell]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

[Nyvin]

I highly expect this district to trend left enough by 2020 that the GOP just gives up and makes a third Dem vote sink in NOVA during redistricting.

[Torie]

Yeah, this is one of those seats at risk if voters of the type which this CD has in abundance get mad at the Pubs for going Trumpish, and decide to punish the party as a whole.

[Heisenberg]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

ROTFL Bobby Scott won't even run.

[Heisenberg]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

ROTFL Bobby Scott won't even run.

Word is that Scott is McAuliffe's likely choice for appointment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

ROTFL Bobby Scott won't even run.

Word is that Scott is McAuliffe's likely choice for appointment.

Not a chance.

[Figueira]

Comstock is pretty odious and would love to see her knocked off, personally.

What is so bad about her? I know very little about her.

[Maxwell]

Comstock is pretty odious and would love to see her knocked off, personally.

What is so bad about her? I know very little about her.

She's an old school GOP hatchet woman during the Clinton impeachment era and the Bush era, and was credited for being one of the top people responsible for pushing John Roberts through the Supreme Court.  She's an insider in pretty much the worst ways.

[Vosem]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

ROTFL Bobby Scott won't even run.

Word is that Scott is McAuliffe's likely choice for appointment.

Not a chance.

It is essentially believed to be a done deal in Virginia that Bobby Scott will be appointed to replace Tim Kaine: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/bobby-scott-the-congressman-who-could-make-history-again/2016/09/07/26822154-6bb6-11e6-ba32-5a4bf5aad4fa_story.html

It's difficult to know how that would play, though he hasn't actually faced a competitive non-primary election since the 1980s (and has never won one, in fact). Comstock, even if she loses her House seat, would probably be favored against him, and a reasonably-normal conservative like Cuccinelli could probably win too, but someone more obscure could still throw the race, and the state party who brought you Dave Brat, Bob Marshall, and E.W. Jackson don't have the best record with this sort of thing.

Comstock, who was involved in the Clinton impeachment and the Roberts nomination, consistently held down a pretty Democratic-leaning state House seat for several years, and is firmly anti-Trump, is basically the best sort of establishment Republican there is, imo.

[publicunofficial]

VA-10 is probably one of the biggest contenders for biggest swing towards the Democrats, at least on the Presidential side of things. Very educated district, Trump is going to crater here even if he makes the race somewhat close.


Considering that the GOP is now having to spend resources to defend VA-05, it's not crazy to think Comstock is in deep trouble.

[windjammer]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

ROTFL Bobby Scott won't even run.

Word is that Scott is McAuliffe's likely choice for appointment.

Not a chance.

Do you have any infos we don't have? Please tell us if that's the case, I'm curious

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

ROTFL Bobby Scott won't even run.

Word is that Scott is McAuliffe's likely choice for appointment.

Not a chance.

Do you have any infos we don't have? Please tell us if that's the case, I'm curious

I guess I just can't believe the VA Dems are that stupid since Scott seems like such a weak candidate.  I hadn't seen the articles though, so now I'm kinda worried.  Still...you'd think they'd go with Don Beyer or Mark Herring.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sad if true, though I suspect Comstock may have a chance at getting elected into the Senate even if she loses this House race, just like Maria Cantwell.

I mean if Dems screw up recruitment in 2018 for Kaine's seat it's entirely possible.

but Comstock could also be sacked in a primary.

From the right, Cuccinelli, Brat, Allen, and Cantor are all primary challenge possibilities. Other more moderate Republucans like Gilmore and Tom Davis may also run.

Bobby Scott, the likely Democrat, is a weak candidate as he is untested as a fundraiser and has never faced a tough race in his heavily Democratic House seat.

ROTFL Bobby Scott won't even run.

Word is that Scott is McAuliffe's likely choice for appointment.

Not a chance.

Do you have any infos we don't have? Please tell us if that's the case, I'm curious

I guess I just can't believe the VA Dems are that stupid since Scott seems like such a weak candidate.  I hadn't seen the articles though, so now I'm kinda worried.  Still...you'd think they'd go with Don Beyer or Mark Herring.

Yeah, if you had told me a few years ago that Bobby Scott would be the choice, I would've laughed at the prospect as well; the others you named make a lot more sense, though I can understand why Herring wouldn't want the job, as he apparently has his eyes on Governor in 2021 (he's staying out of next year's gubernatorial race in favor of Northam).

One good thing about Scott's prospective appointment is that it opens up his safe House seat. I'd think that Delegate Marcia Price, the niece of Scott, would be the favorite to take the seat. She's the only member of the Virginia legislature to endorse Bernie Sanders, and would be an excellent addition to Congress.

Never heard of her, but regardless, I'd rather Scott stay in the House and someone electable be selected for the appointment.  If Scott's the pick then we might as well just concede the race to the Republicans, tbh.

[publicunofficial]

Wow a lot of vitriol for Bobby Scott. Don't know why, he's never done anything embarrassing, has a solid voting record, and while he hasn't shown himself to be a strong fundraiser, he doesn't really need to in a district as D leaning as his. I'd certainly rather have him than either Beyer or Connolly.