What percentage of the PV will Donald Trump get?

[Crumpets]

Around 45%. I'm anticipating a major drop-off of 3rd party support.

[Vosem]

38%. Considering most undecideds have much worse opinions of Trump than Clinton, I'll assume they break against him and go to either Clinton or third-party. Historically speaking, the third-parties should be done collapsing by now. What they're polling right now is what they'll get unless some sort of major game-changer to make the election seem much closer occurs, which seems very doubtful.

[MIKESOWELL]

Clinton 50%
Trump 40%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
McMullen 1%
Others 1%

[President Johnson]

My gut feeling tells me that he will end up at around 44% while Hillary will get around 50%.

[JA]

51% Clinton
43% Trump
04% Johnson
01% Stein
01% McMullin, & others

[Zinneke]

Why are people giving Johnson 4% when he has consistently polled at 7? Wouldn't that be pretty bad for the LP given the field?

[JA]

Why are people giving Johnson 4% when he has consistently polled at 7? Wouldn't that be pretty bad for the LP given the field?

I gave him 4% because third party candidates tend to underperform on election day. Most holdouts accept that either the D or R will be President and vote accordingly. While this election is far from the norm, I still expect that pattern to hold up. I could definitely be wrong, but I'm betting that I'm not.

[President Johnson]

Why are people giving Johnson 4% when he has consistently polled at 7? Wouldn't that be pretty bad for the LP given the field?

I gave him 4% because third party candidates tend to underperform on election day. Most holdouts accept that either the D or R will be President and vote accordingly. While this election is far from the norm, I still expect that pattern to hold up. I could definitely be wrong, but I'm betting that I'm not.

Agreed. Johnson ends up at 5% at best. Likely 3-4%, with 1% for Stein and around 1-2% for McMullin and Castle combined. Third party votes won't be far over 5%.

[mark_twain]

38%

Republican voters, especially women, will desert him in droves. It doesn't take that many desertions to make a significant dent in his support.

This is not a normal election. This candidate has offended many demographic groups, and it has now shown in the polls.

[sentinel]

Whoever listed McMullin at 4% needs to pass the pipe to me. You must be smoking some fantastic stuff.

[Phony Moderate]

No lower than 40%, no higher than 46% (the minimum to have even a slight chance at reaching 270). Probably 44% - slightly higher than what the final polls will show.m

[NHI]

38% is his floor.
44% is his ceiling.

[Mr. Morden]

Why are people giving Johnson 4% when he has consistently polled at 7? Wouldn't that be pretty bad for the LP given the field?

I gave him 4% because third party candidates tend to underperform on election day. Most holdouts accept that either the D or R will be President and vote accordingly. While this election is far from the norm, I still expect that pattern to hold up.

That's just not true.  There is no such pattern.  In recent presidential elections for which there's a third party candidate significant enough to be included in most polls, their polling #s in October pretty much match their performance on election day.  Look at Perot '92, Perot '96, and Nader '00.  What they were polling in October is what they got on election day.  If anything, Perot narrowly beat his poll #s in both '92 and '96.  Even Anderson '80 didn't have much dropoff from October to November.  His drop mostly took place before that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

38% is his floor.
44% is his ceiling.

This, you guys are actually estimating on the high end of his range as being his expected output. He's already down to the 39% in most polling averages.

[Breton Racer]

Probably around 40%, could go lower.

[Hammy]

47%. He doesn't pay taxes after all.