Why are people giving Johnson 4% when he has consistently polled at 7? Wouldn't that be pretty bad for the LP given the field?
I gave him 4% because third party candidates tend to underperform on election day. Most holdouts accept that either the D or R will be President and vote accordingly. While this election is far from the norm, I still expect that pattern to hold up. I could definitely be wrong, but I'm betting that I'm not.
Agreed. Johnson ends up at 5% at best. Likely 3-4%, with 1% for Stein and around 1-2% for McMullin and Castle combined. Third party votes won't be far over 5%.
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