IA-01-Normington Petts (Dem poll for Vernon campaign): Blum +1

[MT Treasurer]

45% Rod Blum (R, inc.)
44% Monica Vernon (D)

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/NPA_IA-01_Poll_Memo.pdf

[Heisenberg]

Congratulations, Blum!

[Maxwell]

I'm going to guess this is the Trump effect at work - he endangers quite a few house incumbents, some not even close to vulnerable in past elections like Issa or Petersen, but in the process saves a few like Blunt, Katko, and Poliquin.

[Vosem]

I'm going to guess this is the Trump effect at work - he endangers quite a few house incumbents, some not even close to vulnerable in past elections like Issa or Petersen, but in the process saves a few like Blunt, Katko, and Poliquin.

Considering Hillary is still winning Katko's district by double-digits in internal polling, I'm not sure you can credit Katko's lead to Trumpy coattails. Claudia Tenney's, maybe.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm going to guess this is the Trump effect at work - he endangers quite a few house incumbents, some not even close to vulnerable in past elections like Issa or Petersen, but in the process saves a few like Blunt, Katko, and Poliquin.

Trump isn't gonna save Blunt (I'd argue he hurts him by bringing out some blue-dog DINO types who will still vote for Kander), Katko is simply a strong incumbent facing a weak opponent, and Poliquin – while probably helped by Trump – would likely be losing if he were facing someone like Troy Jackson or Joe Baldacci.

[KingSweden]

I'm going to guess this is the Trump effect at work - he endangers quite a few house incumbents, some not even close to vulnerable in past elections like Issa or Petersen, but in the process saves a few like Blunt, Katko, and Poliquin.

Trump isn't gonna save Blunt (I'd argue he hurts him by bringing out some blue-dog DINO types who will still vote for Kander), Katko is simply a strong incumbent facing a weak opponent, and Poliquin – while probably helped by Trump – would likely be losing if he were facing someone like Troy Jackson or Joe Baldacci.

D-Trip not getting Jackson here was political malpractice