Question for the Hillary fetishists (or: supporters)

[Tender Branson]

Note: This poll is only for Hillary fetishists (supporters)

Assuming the (currently) very unlikely event that election night shows a very close race with the possibility of a slight Trump win due to enough swing states voting for him (like in 2000), but despite the polls showing Hillary ahead by 5-8% ahead of the election and comfortably ahead in most swing states, which scenario do you Hillary supporters think was most likely for her loss ?

A) the polls were simply wrong (higher White turnout, less minority turnout), like before Brexit etc.

B) the Russians/Chinese etc. hacked US voting machines to enable a Trump win

C) some kind of female Bradley effect (many voters still reluctant to elect the first woman as POTUS)

I'm not a Hillary fetishist (as you may know), but I think C is the most unlikely option. Followed by B. A seems to be the most likely option, because polls were generally really bad in major elections around the globe recently.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Clearly A.

And A would be mostly a result of the widesprad (nurtured by decades of real scandals and imagined ones) hate against HRC and the global wish to do something against globalism.

Russia may influence and try to steal the election but they couldn't do it without existing stereotypes and assumptions about hillary.

[Maxwell]

Brexit polls weren't wrong please stop citing that talking point.



Polls showed Brexit narrowly ahead within a week or so of the election, when the Jo Cox death sort of threw things for a loop and their seemed to be a sympathy bump for Remain - but even then most reliable polls showed it close - close enough to where a Brexit win was incredibly possible. There were a couple of very unreliable pollsters that had it higher margins, but the smart money was still within 1-2 points in either direction.

[Maxwell]

As for your question - A is the only one that makes mostly sense (despite the crude brexit remark). C is a stupid old thing that needs to be sent to the dustbin of history.

[Tender Branson]

As for your question - A is the only one that makes mostly sense (despite the crude brexit remark). C is a stupid old thing that needs to be sent to the dustbin of history.

That's why I used Brexit as only 1 example of poll failure. There have been a lot recently (Colombia, Austria etc.)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mostly A. Maybe a possibility C plays a minor part, but honestly I doubt it; hating Hillary isn't exactly something people who don't like her feel the need to be shy about. Not B, the Russians are just trying to undermine public confidence in the election, there is no evidence that they are making any inroads into actually screwing with the vote itself, or indeed that they are even really trying to.

As a possible other option I would float is voter intimidation by Trump supporters, since he seems to be egging that on. That worries me more than either C or B.

[Maxwell]

As for your question - A is the only one that makes mostly sense (despite the crude brexit remark). C is a stupid old thing that needs to be sent to the dustbin of history.

That's why I used Brexit as only 1 example of poll failure. There have been a lot recently (Colombia, Austria etc.)

Austria polls actually seemed to underestimate the non-terrible candidate in the general election, which is what I believe will happen here.

[Holmes]

D. Blaxicasians didn't turn out to the polls.

[Devout Centrist]

F for f**k this.

[Tender Branson]

As a possible other option I would float is voter intimidation by Trump supporters, since he seems to be egging that on. That worries me more than either C or B.

D. Blaxicasians didn't turn out to the polls.

Those options are part of "Scenario A".

[Mr. Smith]

C) Wouldn't be a Bradley Effect, it'd be a Shy trumpper effect.

But I'm going with A.  Between a good chunk of the midterms, Kentucky 2015, and how only teh olds are reliable, the GOP is clearly always favored with low turnout, which could plausibly happen thanks to both candidates being so unlikable.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if the women vote is not killing any shy strumper effect by a mile this time, i think we have not moved on from the 1950ies.

[Badger]

Oh Tender. You simple, simple man-child.

[psychprofessor]

C'mon - with about 1/3rd of the electorate participating in early voting / absentee this year, we will know who won within the next few weeks. This race won't be decided on election day.

[Speed of Sound]

The wheels have really come off, have they Tender?

[JerryArkansas]

A of course.  Also Tender, you really need to cut down on the concern trolling.  You really need to reserve that for your nation.  It is electing a fascist right now.

[Alcon]

As for your question - A is the only one that makes mostly sense (despite the crude brexit remark). C is a stupid old thing that needs to be sent to the dustbin of history.

That's why I used Brexit as only 1 example of poll failure. There have been a lot recently (Colombia, Austria etc.)

I mean, you shouldn't have used it as an example even if it was one example, because it's a bad example.

Obviously Option A. (sane person option)

C'mon - with about 1/3rd of the electorate participating in early voting / absentee this year, we will know who won within the next few weeks. This race won't be decided on election day.

I think that wrongly assumes that early voters can be assumed representative of all voters, or that there aren't enough voters on Election Day to overcome a skew among early voters.  I don't think either of those things are the case, at least not to the point where we can confidently say the race is "decided."

[ProudModerate2]

Scenario "S" = This is a "S"illy poll.

[DavidB.]

The wheels have really come off, have they Tender?

[Senator-elect Spark]

A is most likely, but C also plays a significant role. I think people are still hesitant to elect the first female president, think it will come in 2024 though.

[OneJ]

Scenario "S" = This is a "S"illy poll.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If voters didn't have a problem with electing the first black president, they really won't have a problem with electing the first female president. I think it's pretty safe to say that more people are secretly uneasy with a black president than the number that is uneasy with a female president.

Scenario A might obviously happen if turn-out for some reason is depressed. If there is a scandal involving Clinton before the election day that might happen, otherwise Democrats actually appear more motivated than republicans, based on early voting compared to 2012.

[Ebsy]

Disgusting new low from Nazi sympathizer Tender Moron.

[Tender Branson]

The wheels have really come off, have they Tender?

Am I not allowed to post hypothetical questions anymore or what ?

Disgusting new low from Nazi sympathizer Tender Moron.

Shut up, dick.

[Fusionmunster]

Stop using the word fetishists and maybe you might be treated with more respect.