Massachusetts 2018: John Kerry for governor?
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  Massachusetts 2018: John Kerry for governor?
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Author Topic: Massachusetts 2018: John Kerry for governor?  (Read 3580 times)
BL53931
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« Reply #25 on: October 19, 2016, 06:41:36 PM »

James Byrnes was SOS under Truman for awhile. He returned home to SC and got elected governor in 1950. So there is precedent.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #26 on: October 20, 2016, 12:05:51 AM »

Nah, won’t happen. Kerry will retire in January 2017 and maybe remain a public figure with speeches etc. He’ll be some kind of elder statesman. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy may be a strong contender for Democrats in 2018, though I expect Baker to be reelected. I doubt that the foreign policy expert Kerry is even interested in this position.

Fully agree
Moulton is more likely than Kennedy to run for governor. I think Joe Kennedy will wait for the next Senate seat to open (he'd probably prefer the Class 1 seat, but he probably won't care). Remember that the Kennedys have always preferred Senate or even House to Governor, his father, Joe Kennedy II was recruited hard by national and state Democrats to run against Weld, but he said he had no interest and preferred to stay in the House.
If Moulton leaves, Tisei is free to pick up that seat. Surely there aren't two extremely surprisingly strong Democrats in that district. Kim Driscoll or John F. Tierney might hold Tisei to under 54%.
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Figueira
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« Reply #27 on: October 20, 2016, 01:20:02 AM »

Nah, won’t happen. Kerry will retire in January 2017 and maybe remain a public figure with speeches etc. He’ll be some kind of elder statesman. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy may be a strong contender for Democrats in 2018, though I expect Baker to be reelected. I doubt that the foreign policy expert Kerry is even interested in this position.

Fully agree
Moulton is more likely than Kennedy to run for governor. I think Joe Kennedy will wait for the next Senate seat to open (he'd probably prefer the Class 1 seat, but he probably won't care). Remember that the Kennedys have always preferred Senate or even House to Governor, his father, Joe Kennedy II was recruited hard by national and state Democrats to run against Weld, but he said he had no interest and preferred to stay in the House.
If Moulton leaves, Tisei is free to pick up that seat. Surely there aren't two extremely surprisingly strong Democrats in that district. Kim Driscoll or John F. Tierney might hold Tisei to under 54%.

You don't need to be "surprisingly strong" to win in a D+4 district as a Democrat.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #28 on: October 20, 2016, 01:47:21 AM »

Nah, won’t happen. Kerry will retire in January 2017 and maybe remain a public figure with speeches etc. He’ll be some kind of elder statesman. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy may be a strong contender for Democrats in 2018, though I expect Baker to be reelected. I doubt that the foreign policy expert Kerry is even interested in this position.

Fully agree
Moulton is more likely than Kennedy to run for governor. I think Joe Kennedy will wait for the next Senate seat to open (he'd probably prefer the Class 1 seat, but he probably won't care). Remember that the Kennedys have always preferred Senate or even House to Governor, his father, Joe Kennedy II was recruited hard by national and state Democrats to run against Weld, but he said he had no interest and preferred to stay in the House.
If Moulton leaves, Tisei is free to pick up that seat. Surely there aren't two extremely surprisingly strong Democrats in that district. Kim Driscoll or John F. Tierney might hold Tisei to under 54%.

You don't need to be "surprisingly strong" to win in a D+4 district as a Democrat.
Charlie Baker and even Scott Brown have done very well in that district. If open during a neutral year against Tisei it should be very competitive, Democrats hit the jackpot when Moulton ran and defeated Tierney in the primary. Tisei is a good fit to the district, and would be a good addition to the House Republican conference, and give them a Massachusetts member.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #29 on: October 20, 2016, 03:07:21 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2016, 03:19:12 AM by Ah! tout est bu, tout est mangé! Plus rien à dire! »


That's a horrible thing to say about Essex County.

I hate Massachusetts Republicans because with a few exceptions they all have this bland, indistinguishable (and in my opinion immoral), cookie-cutter non-ideology where the world is an equation and politics is about doing everything possible to avoid getting up off your ass because whenever you do you have to send 'solutions' hither and yon in search of problems and nobody has any actual beliefs, just Positions, nor dreams, just Preferences, and the object of governance is to dissolve any ties that could possibly render a hypothetical, undifferentiated individual citizen responsible to anyone or for anything, and it'll make us feel like sh**t and like there's no greater reason to go on living, but we'll deserve it, won't we? And the exceptions are people like Scott Brown.
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Figueira
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« Reply #30 on: October 20, 2016, 12:05:34 PM »

Nah, won’t happen. Kerry will retire in January 2017 and maybe remain a public figure with speeches etc. He’ll be some kind of elder statesman. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy may be a strong contender for Democrats in 2018, though I expect Baker to be reelected. I doubt that the foreign policy expert Kerry is even interested in this position.

Fully agree
Moulton is more likely than Kennedy to run for governor. I think Joe Kennedy will wait for the next Senate seat to open (he'd probably prefer the Class 1 seat, but he probably won't care). Remember that the Kennedys have always preferred Senate or even House to Governor, his father, Joe Kennedy II was recruited hard by national and state Democrats to run against Weld, but he said he had no interest and preferred to stay in the House.
If Moulton leaves, Tisei is free to pick up that seat. Surely there aren't two extremely surprisingly strong Democrats in that district. Kim Driscoll or John F. Tierney might hold Tisei to under 54%.

You don't need to be "surprisingly strong" to win in a D+4 district as a Democrat.
Charlie Baker and even Scott Brown have done very well in that district. If open during a neutral year against Tisei it should be very competitive, Democrats hit the jackpot when Moulton ran and defeated Tierney in the primary. Tisei is a good fit to the district, and would be a good addition to the House Republican conference, and give them a Massachusetts member.

I'm just saying it's not Safe R like Kingpoleon was implying.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #31 on: October 20, 2016, 03:42:02 PM »

Nah, won’t happen. Kerry will retire in January 2017 and maybe remain a public figure with speeches etc. He’ll be some kind of elder statesman. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy may be a strong contender for Democrats in 2018, though I expect Baker to be reelected. I doubt that the foreign policy expert Kerry is even interested in this position.

Fully agree
Moulton is more likely than Kennedy to run for governor. I think Joe Kennedy will wait for the next Senate seat to open (he'd probably prefer the Class 1 seat, but he probably won't care). Remember that the Kennedys have always preferred Senate or even House to Governor, his father, Joe Kennedy II was recruited hard by national and state Democrats to run against Weld, but he said he had no interest and preferred to stay in the House.
If Moulton leaves, Tisei is free to pick up that seat. Surely there aren't two extremely surprisingly strong Democrats in that district. Kim Driscoll or John F. Tierney might hold Tisei to under 54%.

You don't need to be "surprisingly strong" to win in a D+4 district as a Democrat.

You do as a non-incumbent against someone like Richard Tisei. Tisei was expected to win by four to ten points over Tierney, and then Moulton came in as a Democratic superstar.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #32 on: October 20, 2016, 04:20:42 PM »

Tisei is very moderate. When Baker runs in 2018, he and Tisei would be strong campaign surrogates for each other. Surely you can admit Baker would win the District, and it's hard to imagine a Baker voter not voting for Tisei. Warren is an incumbent, so she's a bit of a different case. I'm not sure she will win MA-6. Since Massachusetts as a whole is D+10, and MA-6 is just D+4, Warren would have to win by quite a bit to win the district assuming a universal swing. Considering it's a bad fit for her, I imagine she would have to win, by more than a universal swing in Massachusetts would suggest, to win MA-6.

Assuming a universal swing, would she have to win by at least six or at least twelve? I'm not quite sure how PVI works there.
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Figueira
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« Reply #33 on: October 20, 2016, 08:12:47 PM »

Tisei is very moderate. When Baker runs in 2018, he and Tisei would be strong campaign surrogates for each other. Surely you can admit Baker would win the District, and it's hard to imagine a Baker voter not voting for Tisei. Warren is an incumbent, so she's a bit of a different case. I'm not sure she will win MA-6. Since Massachusetts as a whole is D+10, and MA-6 is just D+4, Warren would have to win by quite a bit to win the district assuming a universal swing. Considering it's a bad fit for her, I imagine she would have to win, by more than a universal swing in Massachusetts would suggest, to win MA-6.

Assuming a universal swing, would she have to win by at least six or at least twelve? I'm not quite sure how PVI works there.

1. Gubernatorial races and congressional races are not the same thing. It's perfectly normal to vote for a Republican for governor in Massachusetts, while voting Democratic for House. A lot of people did that in 2014, and not just in MA-6.
2. Unless Warren gets some amazingly strong challenger for some reason, she'll win every district.
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