Will Donald Trump get below 42% of the vote?

[RHTFT]

Of course not.

Even after grabgate, he is still polling at around 44%. You guys also have to remember that people will forget about grabgate within two weeks. I can't believe that so many people on the other thread seriously believe that he is going to get below 40% of the vote. Even Mondale got 41% of the vote, and the electorate is too polarized for a 1984-esque landslide. Trump's floor 42% I think.

[Rand]

It's possible. Trump is polling at or below 40% in the four-way. If Clinton's GOTV operation is significant she could trounce Trump in the popular vote. I get people are cautious to underestimate Trump and cite polarization as a factor, but considering his abysmal poll numbers with certain demographics and at the national level--if he really is underperforming among the electorate--he could absolutely end up with 37-39%.

[Phony Moderate]

It's possible. Trump is polling at or below 40% in the four-way. If Clinton's GOTV operation is significant she could trounce Trump in the popular vote. I get people are cautious to underestimate Trump and cite polarization as a factor, but considering his abysmal poll numbers with certain demographics and at the national leve--if he really is underperforming among the electorate--he could absolutely end up with 37-39%.

Surely any GOTV operation is/should be focussed on a small number of key swing states (and hence shouldn't affect the national popular vote too much)?

[Rand]

It's possible. Trump is polling at or below 40% in the four-way. If Clinton's GOTV operation is significant she could trounce Trump in the popular vote. I get people are cautious to underestimate Trump and cite polarization as a factor, but considering his abysmal poll numbers with certain demographics and at the national leve--if he really is underperforming among the electorate--he could absolutely end up with 37-39%.

Surely any GOTV operation is/should be focussed on a small number of key swing states (and hence shouldn't affect the national popular vote too much)?

Unlike Trump, Clinton has an office in every state and if the polls are to be believed Trump is clearly underperforming in Republican states. Her ground game is superior. As unpopular as he is nationwide and with the inclusion of third parties I'm just not convinced he's going to rack up a Romney or McCain-like percentage unless the data we have is critically underestimating him. 42% is reasonable, but I wouldn't be surprised if he scores below 40% due to significantly smaller margins in Republican states where past candidates have won by double digits. If he's only 4% up in Texas, running even or slightly ahead in Utah, and losing Pennsylvania and Michigan by 10% on Election Day where is he making up the vote to receive 43-47%?

[Person Man]

That's about what I am expecting. Maybe 44 if he closes it and 3rd parties go to hell. Hillary gets 47 or 48 in this scenario. I can also so see it be 50-40.

[eric82oslo]

Of course not.

Even after grabgate, he is still polling at around 44%. You guys also have to remember that people will forget about grabgate within two weeks. I can't believe that so many people on the other thread seriously believe that he is going to get below 40% of the vote. Even Mondale got 41% of the vote, and the electorate is too polarized for a 1984-esque landslide. Trump's floor 42% I think.

Trump is not a polarizing candidate. Even most independents hate him. Only a tiny fraction - well a big fraction, but nevertheless - of Republicans support him. Don't drag polarization into the debate, cause Trump has said that he hates politically correct polarization and in fact he claims to be the very first apolitical candidate in history, at least in US history.

[RJEvans]

I wish he can get below 40%, but he'll likely be north of 42% when it's all said and done.

[Thomas D]

I think he'll get to 41%

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I voted yes. I can see how he'd get a little over 40%, but what I think is going to happen instead between now and November is that the combination of relentless sandblasting, a few more daggers in his gut, and his own raging insanity will erode his support until he's down around 35%.

[ProudModerate2]

I hope he gets below 42%, but it will probably be more than that (43-ish).

[Mallow]

Of course not.

Even after grabgate, he is still polling at around 44%. You guys also have to remember that people will forget about grabgate within two weeks. I can't believe that so many people on the other thread seriously believe that he is going to get below 40% of the vote. Even Mondale got 41% of the vote, and the electorate is too polarized for a 1984-esque landslide. Trump's floor 42% I think.

His polling average is 39.1% right now.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

[hopper]

Of course not.

Even after grabgate, he is still polling at around 44%. You guys also have to remember that people will forget about grabgate within two weeks. I can't believe that so many people on the other thread seriously believe that he is going to get below 40% of the vote. Even Mondale got 41% of the vote, and the electorate is too polarized for a 1984-esque landslide. Trump's floor 42% I think.

His polling average is 39.1% right now.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

I think both Hillary and Trump are both basically evenly splitting vote losses with Gary Johnson but Hillary is losing votes to Stein while Trump I don't think is losing very many votes to Stein.

[Senator-elect Spark]

No, (sane). He is guaranteed at least 45% of the vote.

[NOVA Green]

I'll go out on a limb and say yes, although I wouldn't lay down any money on it....

He hasn't polled above 40% in any A grade pollster in almost two weeks, and currently appears to be only in the 38-39 point range in legit national polls taken post debate II and his audio/visuals of the comments regarding women, and we haven't really seen any national polls taken fully since the allegations from eight women that there was unwanted physical contact/ sexual battery-assault.

The third debate on foreign policy is unlikely to be particularly helpful to Mr. Trump, considering that most independent observers consider his knowledge on this subject to be quite lacking, and generally the vast majority of Americans consider Ms. Clinton to be much better on all foreign policy related matters.

One could make a decent and strong argument, that much of Trump's collapse in recent weeks has been from Republicans and Conservatives repulsed from his recent comments, that will return to the fold come election day, just like they have after many of his many other controversial comments. It also does appear that Clinton has gained a few points among Indies and Dem holdouts (Especially Millennials) that likely won't be going back now that we are deep into the 4th quarter.

I am a little skeptical that some of these Trump supporters will revert back into the fold now that sexual assault allegations have been leveled by eight different women, and believe that in many "Safe D" and "Safe R" states White evangelicals and others might just decide to not vote for the top of the ticket since it "won't make a difference".

[voter1993]

I don't think so..... early voting so far has been down in a lot of big democratic strongholds... yes democrats have registered a lot of people in florida, i'd like to see how this affects voting.

[Hammy]

I say no--both candidates are practically guaranteed to have a floor of 45% each due to hyper-partisanship.

[Ljube]

Of course not.

[AGA]

Of course not.