What state will most closely match the national PV margin?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- vote -

[America Needs R'hllor]

Just a shot in the dark, but I'd say Florida. Clinton could win by high single-digits there, same as nationally. NC will probably much closer than the national margin, and all the others slightly more democratic.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's my prediction of deviation from the national margin:

Levels:
<1%
<5%
<10%
<15%
<20%
<25%
25%+

And the trend map:

(Some weird results - especially NM thanks to Gary Johnson.)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Just a shot in the dark, but I'd say Florida. Clinton could win by high single-digits there, same as nationally. NC will probably much closer than the national margin, and all the others slightly more democratic.

I seriously doubt Clinton wins FL by high single digits.  If she does, it's a nationwide blowout.

I expect a national margin of around 6-8%, and a FL to be within 5%.

[Orser67]

Weirdly, 538 currently has Minnesota as the tipping point state. But I'm going with Nevada. It's the only state that I feel fairly confident in saying that it will vote to the left of Florida and to the right of PA.

It's also a pretty good representation of this election. Trump will do well with the large population of working class whites, but Nevada's large minority population will combine with more-educated voters to give Clinton the state.

[TDAS04]

Pennsylvania is most likely, but Pennsylvania will still probably be just a tiny bit to the left of the national PV margin.

[MT Treasurer]

PA or ME.

[Xing]

Florida or Pennsylvania.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Missing option: New Mexico, just because Johnson support could do wonky things to the numbers and make it much closer than it would otherwise be.