2016: How would the rest of the Republicans be doing?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 08:02:37 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2016: How would the rest of the Republicans be doing?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: 2016: How would the rest of the Republicans be doing?  (Read 1852 times)
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,720
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 15, 2016, 10:01:07 AM »
Vs Clinton
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,634
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2016, 10:31:14 AM »
Cruz vs Clinton would be something like C+1 or C+2, same with Rubio. Kasich would be anything from a tie to a 3 point lead.
Logged
Enduro
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2016, 10:54:02 AM »
Rand Paul would be winning, and would win.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,120
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2016, 11:17:18 AM »
Close race, with either a slight R lead or a slight D lead.

Except for Cruz, Santorum, and perhaps Paul. Cruz would be down 5-6, Santorum by 4, and Paul would be down 3 or up 3. Not really much middle ground with Paul.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2016, 12:48:02 PM »
Trump: Clinton +6
Cruz: Clinton +3
Rubio: Clinton +3
Kasich: Clinton +5
Bush: Clinton +2
Carson: Clinton +7
Fiorina: Clinton +10
Walker: Clinton +4
Pataki: Tie
Christie: Clinton +8

Most of the candidates this year were just awful. The only candidates who could both excite the base and win moderates are Rubio and Bush, who are both total lightweights likely to be destroyed in the debates.
Logged
evergreenarbor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 864


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2016, 01:53:47 PM »
Clinton v. Trump: 359-179 (Clinton +8)
Clinton v. Cruz: 326-212 (Clinton +6)
Clinton v. Kasich: 290-248 (Kasich +2)
Clinton v. Rubio: 276-262 (Rubio +1)
Clinton v. Carson: 450-88 (Clinton +16)
Clinton v. Jeb!: 274-264 (Tie)
Clinton v. Christie: 322-216 (Clinton +5)
Clinton v. Fiorina: 347-191 (Clinton +6)
Clinton v. Walker: 308-230 (Clinton +4)
Clinton v. Paul: 279-259 (Paul +1)
Clinton v. Huckabee: 326-212 (Clinton +6)
Clinton v. Jindal: 359-179 (Clinton +8)
Clinton v. Perry: 341-197 (Clinton +5)
Clinton v. Santorum: 359-179 (Clinton +8)
Clinton v. Graham: 297-241 (Clinton +2)
Clinton v. Pataki: Hard to say, depends on how many socons abandon him.
Clinton v. Gilmore: 538-0 (Gilmore +100) #gilmentum
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2016, 03:17:35 PM »
All of you guys' maps are giving too much credit to other candidates. You've got to remember that Trump supporters wouldn't turn out for other candidates, and he might even say nasty things about them or not endorse them - and I can't tell what'd be worse: him on their side or him not on their side
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 11:52:34 PM »
Quote from: evergreenarbor on October 15, 2016, 01:53:47 PM
Clinton v. Trump: 359-179 (Clinton +8)
Clinton v. Cruz: 326-212 (Clinton +6)
Clinton v. Kasich: 290-248 (Kasich +2)
Clinton v. Rubio: 276-262 (Rubio +1)
Clinton v. Carson: 450-88 (Clinton +16)
Clinton v. Jeb!: 274-264 (Tie)
Clinton v. Christie: 322-216 (Clinton +5)
Clinton v. Fiorina: 347-191 (Clinton +6)
Clinton v. Walker: 308-230 (Clinton +4)
Clinton v. Paul: 279-259 (Paul +1)
Clinton v. Huckabee: 326-212 (Clinton +6)
Clinton v. Jindal: 359-179 (Clinton +8)
Clinton v. Perry: 341-197 (Clinton +5)
Clinton v. Santorum: 359-179 (Clinton +8)
Clinton v. Graham: 297-241 (Clinton +2)
Clinton v. Pataki: Hard to say, depends on how many socons abandon him.
Clinton v. Gilmore: 538-0 (Gilmore +100) #gilmentum

Why do you think Paul would win?
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,723


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 11:57:44 PM »
Every last one of them would be up by at least five points.  The only reason that Hillary even has a shot (and she will likely win) is that she is facing Donald Trump.  Any other Republican, regardless of how far right or center, would have demolished Hillary.  Rubio would be approaching Reagan '84 margins right about now (but probably losing 3-5 states despite a similar PV margin).
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,120
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2016, 12:00:59 AM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on October 17, 2016, 11:57:44 PM
Every last one of them would be up by at least five points.  The only reason that Hillary even has a shot (and she will likely win) is that she is facing Donald Trump.  Any other Republican, regardless of how far right or center, would have demolished Hillary.  Rubio would be approaching Reagan '84 margins right about now (but probably losing 3-5 states despite a similar PV margin).
You're really deluded if you think this is the case.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,099


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2016, 01:20:09 AM »
The 2016 election is supposed to be close. The fundamentals point to a close election, slight GOP lean. Clinton is also a weaker candidate than the average Democrat, she is not a 'natural politician' and her favorability ratings are very bad.
Kasich would do well, he's a moderate and did very well in the polls against Clinton, though some of that was because he wasn't getting much attention. Plus he has Ohio locked up. About a 5-point lead.
 Rubio would lead a bit more narrowly, he would do well in the general as he seems relatively sane  and charismatic and optimistic, plus he'd improve on Romney's score with Hispanics. I'd say a 2-3 point lead.
Jeb! is a weaker candidate but can't be ruled out and has a relatively favorable environment, plus he could get more of the Hispanic vote than Romney. It would be a tossup (another Gore v Bush?).
Cruz would lose, but not very badly. By about 5 points, he is too extreme and unlikable, but more disciplined and professional than Trump, plus he's not a bad debater so he might win a debate.
Carson is a Trump, but more softspoken. He doesn't get the enthusiasm Trump would get or the potential boost in the Rust Belt and with non-college educated whites. Carson would lose badly as he is unqualified and unfit, and so about 8 points Clinton, getting some red states.
Logged
Representative simossad
simossad
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 384
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2016, 05:12:17 AM »


Clinton: 291
Cruz: 191
Tossup: 56



Clinton: 231
Kasich: 274
Tossup: 51
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2016, 01:03:09 AM »
Quote from: Oh Hill Yes on October 15, 2016, 10:31:14 AM
Cruz vs Clinton would be something like C+1 or C+2

What does C stand for?
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2016, 07:50:05 AM »

273: Kasich/Sandoval
188: Clinton/Perez

253: Safe/Likely R
20: Lean R
77: Tossup
15: Lean D
173: Safe/Likely D


332: John Kasich/Brian Sandoval - 52.1%
206: Hillary Clinton/Tom Perez - 44.0%
Others - 3.9%
Logged
Oldiesfreak1854
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,674
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2016, 12:21:09 PM »
Kasich or Pataki would be winning, Christie, Paul, and Rubio would be tied, and the rest would be losing by wide margins.
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,720
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2016, 06:11:09 PM »
Clinton v. Cruz: 306-232, (Clinton +4)




Clinton v. Kasich: 423-115 (Kasich +12)



Clinton v. Rubio: 297-241 (Rubio +3)



Clinton v. Carson: 466-72 (Clinton +17)



Clinton v. Bush: 277-261 (Bush +1)



Clinton v. Christie: 375-163 (Clinton +7)



Clinton v. Fiorina: 321-217 (Clinton +5)



Clinton v. Walker: 278-260 (Clinton +2)



Clinton v. Paul: 298-240 (Clinton +3)



Clinton v. Huckabee: 341-197 (Clinton +7)



Clinton v. Jindal: 360-168 (Clinton +9)



Clinton v. Perry: 348-190 (Clinton +5)



Clinton v. Santorum: 359-179 (Clinton +7)



Clinton v. Graham: 326-212 (Clinton +5)



Clinton v. Pataki: 279-259 (Pataki +1)



Clinton v. Gilmore: 320-218 (Clinton +6)
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2016, 06:56:30 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on October 17, 2016, 11:57:44 PM
Every last one of them would be up by at least five points.  The only reason that Hillary even has a shot (and she will likely win) is that she is facing Donald Trump.  Any other Republican, regardless of how far right or center, would have demolished Hillary.  Rubio would be approaching Reagan '84 margins right about now (but probably losing 3-5 states despite a similar PV margin).
How in Hell is the person who turned in Rubio's performances at the GOP debates going to win the Presidency?
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2016, 07:16:08 PM »

How stupid can you be? Seriously, none of these maps make any sense. You really don't know what you're talking about. I'd appreciate it if you gained some knowledge before you posted here again
Logged
HisGrace
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,557
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2016, 04:24:46 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 05:23:39 PM by HisGrace »
Let's remember, Clinton has the lowest favorability ratings of any pre 2016 candidate. She was basically tied with Trump before he imploded this past month, nearly entirely due to his own doing. I think we would all agree that all the major Republican candidates were better candidates than Trump, except for maybe Cruz who some people may cite as as bad or a little worse. Therefore I think it's reasonable to think that almost any of those candidates would have had the lead in late September, and simultaneously not destroyed themselves the way Trump did in October, and thus been on track to win the election. Also keep in mind that Clinton's campaign had no overarching, positive campaign message until she formed one in reaction to Trump (Stronger Together). That opportunity wouldn't have presented itself against Kasich/Rubio and thus she'd still be stuck in just running the "Hello, I'm Hillary Clinton" campaign. Given her low favorability ratings that wasn't likely to be successful.  Now for maps-

Cruz/Clinton



Ted Cruz- 274
Hillary Clinton- 264

Kasich/Clinton



John Kasich- 396
Hillary Clinton- 142

Rubio/Clinton



Marco Rubio- 369
Hillary Clinton- 169

Bush/Clinton



Jeb Bush- 272
Hillary Clinton- 266
Logged
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2016, 08:54:37 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 09:00:22 PM by bagelman »
Rubio or Kasich wouldn't be winning Connecticut, Washington, Rhode Island, or New Jersey. Oregon, ME-01, and Michigan are also a stretch. Pennsylvania is more manageable for Kasich, while Rubio would be better off spending more in Ohio.

Ohio would vote Clinton over Cruz. Cruz isn't a good fit here.

Clinton vs. Bush would have strong third party support. It was my original nightmare scenario before Bush was flattened by Trump, and I doubt I'm alone in this.
Logged
Metalhead123
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 264


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2016, 10:29:58 PM »
Quote from: Spark498 on October 21, 2016, 06:11:09 PM

Clinton v. Pataki: 279-259 (Pataki +1)






What? That's a joke right?
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2016, 10:32:22 PM »
Paul would win Florida and Nevada.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,506
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 07:27:50 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 07:29:27 PM by Da-Jon »
Everyone but Kasich loses to Clinton and Kasich wins CO and or Iowa
Logged
RC (a la Frémont)
ReaganClinton20XX
Atlas Politician
Sr. Member
*****
Posts: 2,271
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: -6.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2016, 04:54:54 PM »
Quote from: Da-Jon on November 03, 2016, 07:27:50 PM
Everyone but Kasich loses to Clinton and Kasich wins CO and or Iowa
Well, I believe Cruz would definitely lose, and Rubio would too, but by a smaller margin, but Bush seems to be somewhat similar to Kasich in my opinion,  which leads me to believe that he would win against Clinton.
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2016, 05:53:05 PM »
Paul is the only other GOP candidate who could come this close. Cruz, Fiorina, Carson, Rubio, Bush, and Kasich would all be behind as well.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.197 seconds with 13 queries.