Does Toomey survive in PA this November?
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  Does Toomey survive in PA this November?		 « previous next »
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Question: Does Toomey win another term in PA?
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: Does Toomey survive in PA this November?  (Read 1596 times)
sg0508
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« on: October 15, 2016, 08:35:58 PM »
I personally believe this will be one of the "upset" races next month. True, PA leans Democratic as a whole and Clinton will beat Trump here, but this is one race I believe Democrats take.  As usual, it will come down to Philly, the surrounding suburbs and do conservatives turn up enough for Toomey?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2016, 08:40:51 PM »
Nope, and Toomey losing wouldn't exactly be an upset.
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Kevin
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2016, 08:49:25 PM »
If Toomey loses then it is a sure sign Republicans are in for a bad night.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2016, 09:21:44 PM »
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 15, 2016, 08:57:20 PM
No. Dems will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH, PA, NC, and MO.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2016, 11:38:21 PM »
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 15, 2016, 08:57:20 PM
No. Dems will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH, PA, NC, and MO.

I sure hope you're right. It'd be a good step forward for this state to have two blue Senators, and let's face it, Jason Kander is much, much better to look at than the crusty, corrupt curmudgeon Papa Blunt.

I don't think Toomey survives in Pennsylvania. For all the Atlas hullabaloo about muh angry white working class/trend R voters, looks like Hillary is going to get a comfortable win in the Keystone State, big enough to pull McGinty over the finish line. I supported Joe Sestak in the primary, but any Democrat is better than Pat Toomey.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 12:22:24 AM »
He might, but I'm guessing that he'll narrowly lose.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2016, 12:33:59 AM »
Quote from: Bitch is the New Birkenstock on October 15, 2016, 11:38:21 PM
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 15, 2016, 08:57:20 PM
No. Dems will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH, PA, NC, and MO.

I sure hope you're right. It'd be a good step forward for this state to have two blue Senators, and let's face it, Jason Kander is much, much better to look at than the crusty, corrupt curmudgeon Papa Blunt.

Enjoy it while it lasts, if it happens. I think this year is basically the "last hurrah" for Missouri Dems. McCaskill will lose in 2018, all the row offices will become republican either this year or in 2020, and if Kander does win this year, he'll lose in 2022. Koster might win re-election in 2020 if the MOGOP can't sort out their bench correctly, but the R's will get it in 2024 as the state completes its transformation into AR.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2016, 01:03:31 AM »
Doubtful, saw some #analysis that most of the undecideds appear to be more inclined to be natural Democratic voters. 
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windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2016, 01:07:30 AM »
I don't think it will be particularly close in the end.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2016, 01:15:27 AM »
I don't know. It looks like a pure tossup right now. I guess if Trump loses badly, there's no way he survives.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2016, 02:02:45 AM »
If PA is Clinton +4 or less, he wins. Clinton +5 to +8 could mean either result. Clinton +9 and above, McGinty wins.
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2016, 02:48:04 AM »
Think Trump drags him down.
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JMT
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2016, 11:47:27 AM »
I think McGinty narrowly wins
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Green Line
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2016, 11:50:12 AM »
No.  I think he's second most likely to lost after Kirk at this point.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2016, 02:35:00 PM »
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 15, 2016, 08:57:20 PM
No. Dems will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH, PA, NC, and MO.
That's Bullish, saying they'll win every competitive race.
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windjammer
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2016, 03:31:34 PM »
He's not going to survive, and that won't even be close.
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windjammer
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2016, 03:34:23 PM »
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 16, 2016, 03:32:16 PM
Quote from: Chief Justice windjammer on October 16, 2016, 03:31:34 PM
He's not going to survive, and that won't even be close.

Depends on how you define "close". I think he loses by about 5 in the end.
I believe as well he will lose by 5 points in the end.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2016, 03:38:29 PM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on October 16, 2016, 02:35:00 PM
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 15, 2016, 08:57:20 PM
No. Dems will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH, PA, NC, and MO.
That's Bullish, saying they'll win every competitive race.
It's true, though, except for MO perhaps. He only forgot to mention FL.
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Figueira
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2016, 03:39:18 PM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on October 16, 2016, 02:35:00 PM
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 15, 2016, 08:57:20 PM
No. Dems will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH, PA, NC, and MO.
That's Bullish, saying they'll win every competitive race.

It's pretty common for parties to win every competitive race, or almost every competitive race. I'm currently predicting that the Democrats will win all of those except NC and MO, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won those as well.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2016, 12:38:32 PM »
Quote from: Silent Cal on October 16, 2016, 02:35:00 PM
Quote from: Because Duverger's Law on October 15, 2016, 08:57:20 PM
No. Dems will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH, PA, NC, and MO.
That's Bullish, saying they'll win every competitive race.

In wave elections, the winning Party picks up most of the marginal seats. This election could well be a reverse-wave of 2010.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2016, 01:18:33 PM »
McGinty is a hack but this isn't trending Toomey's way
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Nyvin
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2016, 02:19:23 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on October 16, 2016, 02:02:45 AM
If PA is Clinton +4 or less, he wins. Clinton +5 to +8 could mean either result. Clinton +9 and above, McGinty wins.

Geez you are such a partisan hack.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2016, 07:32:11 PM »
There is a fair chance Toomey could survive but right now I'd rather be McGinty than Toomey.  My prediction is that she wins.
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