Which way will Mississippi swing?

[OneJ]

Discuss.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Great question, If there is a very high black turnout for Hillary Clinton  she can win Mississippi.

[Cashew]

I simply don't see how republicans increase the white vote percentage beyond what they have now. Mississippi will swing D, both because of younger whites and black population growth.

[Figueira]

In 2016? I'd say towards Clinton, although it might trend towards Trump.

Later? Towards the Democrats.

[LLR]

Significantly for Clinton, by 3-5 points. It'll trend about even

[hopper]

Towards Clinton.

[voter1993]

Towards clinton

[anthonyjg]

Clinton, I think it has the potential to be surprisingly close on election night.

[OneJ]

Clinton, I think it has the potential to be surprisingly close on election night.

This is what I think. Many people are underestimating this state in how far it could go this year and in the future (It'll take a miracle for Hillary to flip it).

[HAnnA MArin County]

How much of the white vote would she need to win to carry Mississippi? Isn't the white vote there like 90-10 Republican? (I'd also like to know where the 10 percent of white Democrats are in Mississippi?)

[OneJ]

How much of the white vote would she need to win to carry Mississippi? Isn't the white vote there like 90-10 Republican? (I'd also like to know where the 10 percent of white Democrats are in Mississippi?)

I'm actually not quite sure where the white vote is concentrated here. I would assume located here in Jackson and places with a bigger share of younger folk.

Someone was talking about SC (where Obama only got 23% of the white vote) and that if Obama could get a similar percentage, he could've won the state. It was 88-11 in 2012, but thankfully due to high AA turnout, it was enough to bring the margin down to 11.5%.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How much of the white vote would she need to win to carry Mississippi? Isn't the white vote there like 90-10 Republican? (I'd also like to know where the 10 percent of white Democrats are in Mississippi?)

I'm actually not quite sure where the white vote is concentrated here. I would assume located here in Jackson and places with a bigger share of younger folk.

Someone was talking about SC (where Obama only got 23% of the white vote) and that if Obama could get a similar percentage, he could've won the state. It was 88-11 in 2012, but thankfully due to high AA turnout, it was enough to bring the margin down to 11.5%.

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.  The 10% are probably in the biggest cities and in academia, though, so think Jackson, Oxford, Starkville, Biloxi, and Hattiesburg, maybe?

[Figueira]

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.

CNN exit polls say otherwise:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

[100% pro-life no matter what]

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.

CNN exit polls say otherwise:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

I believe that is because black people make up a higher percentage of young voters in AL and MS.  From everything that I have seen, young whites are still 85% Republican in those two states.

[Xing]

Almost certainly Democratic, but Trump will probably still win it by high single digits.

[OneJ]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211730.0
Another thread of the Magnolia State's trend.

[Figueira]

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.

CNN exit polls say otherwise:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

I believe that is because black people make up a higher percentage of young voters in AL and MS.  From everything that I have seen, young whites are still 85% Republican in those two states.

Where is that data of yours?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.

CNN exit polls say otherwise:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

I believe that is because black people make up a higher percentage of young voters in AL and MS.  From everything that I have seen, young whites are still 85% Republican in those two states.

Where is that data of yours?

I remember during a debate about Georgia becoming more competitive, a poster said that Obama got 18% of Georgia young whites, which was a little better than Alabama or Mississippi, but still terrible.

[Figueira]

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.

CNN exit polls say otherwise:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

I believe that is because black people make up a higher percentage of young voters in AL and MS.  From everything that I have seen, young whites are still 85% Republican in those two states.

Where is that data of yours?

I remember during a debate about Georgia becoming more competitive, a poster said that Obama got 18% of Georgia young whites, which was a little better than Alabama or Mississippi, but still terrible.

So your source is a vague memory of an Atlas thread about an entirely different state? OK.

Anyway, we were talking about young voters in general, not young white voters.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.

CNN exit polls say otherwise:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

I believe that is because black people make up a higher percentage of young voters in AL and MS.  From everything that I have seen, young whites are still 85% Republican in those two states.

Where is that data of yours?

I remember during a debate about Georgia becoming more competitive, a poster said that Obama got 18% of Georgia young whites, which was a little better than Alabama or Mississippi, but still terrible.

So your source is a vague memory of an Atlas thread about an entirely different state? OK.

Anyway, we were talking about young voters in general, not young white voters.

Young whites in Mississippi voted 16% for Obama:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/10/upshot/voting-habits.html?_r=0

Louisiana: 16%
Alabama: 20%
Georgia: 23%

South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee in the South are also under 1/3 (plus, Kentucky and North Carolina were just over 1/3).  Romney actually comfortably carried the 18-29 white vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

In the future, I expect a slow democratic trend. Right now (in 2016) probably the same or even a slight Republican trend from 2012.

[Figueira]

States like Alabama and Mississippi have virtually no age gap due to voting being decided almost entirely on race.

CNN exit polls say otherwise:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AL/president/

I believe that is because black people make up a higher percentage of young voters in AL and MS.  From everything that I have seen, young whites are still 85% Republican in those two states.

Where is that data of yours?

I remember during a debate about Georgia becoming more competitive, a poster said that Obama got 18% of Georgia young whites, which was a little better than Alabama or Mississippi, but still terrible.

So your source is a vague memory of an Atlas thread about an entirely different state? OK.

Anyway, we were talking about young voters in general, not young white voters.

Young whites in Mississippi voted 16% for Obama:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/10/upshot/voting-habits.html?_r=0

Louisiana: 16%
Alabama: 20%
Georgia: 23%

South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee in the South are also under 1/3 (plus, Kentucky and North Carolina were just over 1/3).  Romney actually comfortably carried the 18-29 white vote.

That's still higher than whites as a whole. And I don't get why it matters what race the young people are for these purposes.