Senior AZ GOP operative: "I think he's (Trump) going to lose Arizona"

[dspNY]

From NBC:

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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281

[HillOfANight]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-tv-ads/
I don't see any spending $ for Arizona last week. The Clinton campaign still looks like it's treating it as second tier.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/ip-forecast-clinton-red-states-trump-down-ballot/index.html
Robby Mook still is focused on the traditional states so far.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We should probably take this with a grain of salt since political operatives often have hidden agendas, but if true... wow.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary can't poll 45% in AZ, let alone win it.

[Xing]

If there's one state that's going to be a shocker on election night, it's Arizona. Trump's bad month probably isn't going to make him lose enough support to lose most traditionally Republican states, but it could be just enough to sink him here, where the polls have always been close.

[5280]

Indiana 2008 redux?

[Devout Centrist]

Hillary can't poll 45% in AZ, let alone win it.

She's either winning or tied in the last three polls from Arizona.

Also, a word on late deciding voters choosing Trump: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-winning-late-deciding-voters/story?id=37173807

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hillary can't poll 45% in AZ, let alone win it.

That assumes she has to break 45% to win AZ. Something like 44-43-7-6 could do it for her.

[dspNY]

Hillary can't poll 45% in AZ, let alone win it.

That assumes she has to break 45% to win AZ. Something like 44-43-7-6 could do it for her.

I think 46% is the magic # for AZ. It's a good state for Johnson; he could pull 7% and the others (Stein, etc.) could pull 1%

[Person Man]

Arizona is funny in how yeah. There are a lot of kids and Hispanics that hate Republicans but still a lot of snow birds and fake rich people who hate Democrats and brown people.

[ApatheticAustrian]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281

[ProudModerate2]

I'm still hopeful that Arizona can flip to the Dems this year.

[Young Conservative]

AZ is usually a fools gold state for Democrats, but were talking about Trump here, so who knows.

Arizona and Missouri are to democrats as Pennsylvania is to Republicans.

[HillOfANight]

Indiana 2008 redux?

Hopefully.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_mccain_vs_obama-604.html
In October 1-22, the polls were
McCain +5
McCain +7
Obama +2
Obama +10
Obama +4

Need to see more polls from quality pollsters, not ones from no names...

Yet, maybe the campaign is relying solely on latino gotv, and not persuasion ads.

[ProudModerate2]

AZ is usually a fools gold state for Democrats, but were talking about Trump here, so who knows.

Arizona and Missouri are to democrats as Pennsylvania is to Republicans.

I can accept your comparison with Missouri, but Arizona is clearly different.

[pppolitics]

Nate Silver has Hillary ahead in Arizona.

[AndyHogan14]

I could see Arizona flipping, the demographics there are very similar to that of Nevada...if there's a good Democratic get-out-the-vote effort, it would surprise me in the least to see AZ turn.

[hopper]

Hillary will win Arizona likely something like like 49-45%.

[HillOfANight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-trump-stumbles-clinton-weighs-a-striking-choice-expand-the-map-or-stick-to-the-plan/2016/10/16/f0f77470-93a7-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html

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[rafta_rafta]

You always have to take party operatives statements with a pinch of salt. They might just be looking for more funds for the campaign by making the race closer than expected. Or simply to get the dems to invest more

[hopper]

I could see Arizona flipping, the demographics there are very similar to that of Nevada...if there's a good Democratic get-out-the-vote effort, it would surprise me in the least to see AZ turn.

Arizona was 9% more white(73%) than NV in 2012(64%) in terms of electoral demographics. Yes both states were 19% Hispanic in terms of electoral demographics in 2012. 

[hopper]

Arizona is funny in how yeah. There are a lot of kids and Hispanics that hate Republicans but still a lot of snow birds and fake rich people who hate Democrats and brown people.

Yeah the white kids in AZ are probably the socially liberal types that live in Phoenix or they live by Arizona State(Tempe) or Arizona University(Tuscon.) That or they don't know the value of a dollar yet.

Of course AZ Hispanics don't like Republicans because of SB 1070 or sheriff Joe who will probably lost re-election this year.

[Ebsy]

Drudge siren!

[hopper]

You always have to take party operatives statements with a pinch of salt. They might just be looking for more funds for the campaign by making the race closer than expected. Or simply to get the dems to invest more

No white women even in AZ don't like Trump lewd comments about women.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hillary can't poll 45% in AZ, let alone win it.

The last time a Democrat won AZ, Bill, he won it with 47% of the vote. Given undecideds and superior ground-game... you really think a couple of points cannot be made up?