Trump says he is going to win through wave of silent supporters

[ApatheticAustrian]

"Donald Trump Says He Will Win on Surge of Silent Supporters"
https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/787841278222426112
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-says-he-will-win-on-surge-of-silent-supporters-1476664463

[anthonyjg]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/768205513079263232

[JA]

I am so incredibly sick of this demagogue questioning and endangering the very legitimacy of our democratic elections. This is nothing more than a dangerous conspiracy theory, yet nothing one should not expect from a serial sexual assaulter. America is not some desperate, borderline third world hell-hole that Trump would have people believe. It is a prosperous, democratic, largely free society that, yes, has its problems, but we should work on them in the spirit of hope and unity, not hatred and bigotry.

[Speed of Sound]

Well, it certainly won't be through open supporters, that's for sure.

[Gass3268]

Brexit was essentially tied on election day, I hate that analogy.

[ApatheticAustrian]

brexit wasn't only tied, it was leading for months in most polls.... (and i guess many of them have been low-quality)

some parts of UK waited for decades to answer that question....can't say the same for trump, especially since even nigel says his campaign is damaged goods and farage is the REAL mister brexit.

[Joe Republic]

If the Bradley Effect refers specifically to an election featuring a black candidate, what's the name for the similar 'effect' for an election featuring a rapist candidate?

[Fargobison]

The same silent supporters that didn't exist in the primary? They must be really good at maintaining their poll busting silence.

[ApatheticAustrian]

trump's only chance by now would be a collapse of hillary's support with millenials and minorities....and a big cross-over-dem-leaning-blue-collar-men-wave.

maybe with a myriad of leaks and some luck in the electoral college (never ever in the PV)...but this by now is pure imagination.

the missing white voters have not registered...the existing registered non-voting white voters are not very reliable....previous blue-collar dems may be the lowest-hanging fruit but the alignment of college-educated whites is not helping.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If the Bradley Effect refers specifically to an election featuring a black candidate, what's the name for the similar 'effect' for an election featuring a rapist candidate?

The berlusocni bunga

[°Leprechaun]

Trump could win if undecideds swing his way, unlikely perhaps, but possible.
There is also the possibility that he could win (a plurality) of the popular vote and
lose the electoral vote. Now wouldn't that be something?

[Meclazine for Israel]

How do you measure the openness of Democratic voters vs Republican voters?

Example, were the 2008 and 2012 election results directly correlated to pre-polling numbers?

[Adam Griffin]

What I would love to see on Election Night: Trump, after losing in a landslide, goes on TV, proceeds to claim the election was stolen, begins to incite riots all over the country, and is then dragged off-stage by Secret Service agents. Fun stuff!

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I am so incredibly sick of this demagogue questioning and endangering the very legitimacy of our democratic elections. This is nothing more than a dangerous conspiracy theory, yet nothing one should not expect from a serial sexual assaulter. America is not some desperate, borderline third world hell-hole that Trump would have people believe. It is a prosperous, democratic, largely free society that, yes, has its problems, but we should work on them in the spirit of hope and unity, not hatred and bigotry.

I agree with this very much so, but problem is Hillary is just going to have more wars, nation-building, etc etc overseas when we should help clean up our ISIS mess and bring all our domestic issues to full bearing (failing infrastructure, skyrocketing healthcare and college prices, true employment, etc).

[Inmate Trump]

If the election is rigged, then he'll lose no matter what.  How can he question it, but then claim he'll win it?

[SPQR]

If the Bradley Effect refers specifically to an election featuring a black candidate, what's the name for the similar 'effect' for an election featuring a rapist candidate?

The berlusocni bunga

Speaking of Berlusconi, polls and exit polls greatly underestimated his support both in the 2006 and 2013 General Elections, which is respectively before and well after the various accusations (never of rape, though) came out.

In the 2009 European Elections, which were right after the sex scandals broke out, his party actually underperformed polls by about 4-5%.

[Rand]

If the Bradley Effect refers specifically to an election featuring a black candidate, what's the name for the similar 'effect' for an election featuring a rapist candidate?

The berlusocni bunga

The Cosby Conundrum

[ursulahx]

Brexit is such a hopeless analogy. While there are some superficial similarities - anti-establishment feeling among 'marginalised' voters being the foremost - there are too many differences to list.

It's true that Leave had a small lead in most of the polls, but there was a swing to Remain in the last few days which lured many Remainers like myself into a false sense of security (although I never felt entirely secure). Turned out that the phone poll modelling favoured Remain and didn't account for the higher turnout on both sides. I naively assumed that the status quo would prevail, as usually happens, but in this case the undecideds broke for Leave.

It's possible that the undecideds may break more for Trump, but it's questionable whether there are enough of them to overcome his massive deficit.

[Maxwell]

I believe there was a sympathy bump in the last few days for Jo Cox after her death that immediately dissipated which I believe is correct because that was not going to sway anybody from their actual beliefs. Polls right before Cox's death were dead on.

[ursulahx]

I believe there was a sympathy bump in the last few days for Jo Cox after her death that immediately dissipated which I believe is correct because that was not going to sway anybody from their actual beliefs. Polls right before Cox's death were dead on.

I think it's possible that the murder made it less socially acceptable to admit you were a Leave voter. This is partly backed up by the fact that the online polls were more accurate than the phone polls. Having said that, the online polls were closer to the final result all the way through, so maybe this wasn't a factor?

What's interesting is that the number of people who regret voting Leave now exceeds the margin by which Leave won. We're lucky; over here we still have the opportunity to put this terrible mistake right, or at least mitigate its consequences. If America elects Trump, there'll be no such chance for a re-think.

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess this is also the way he’s winning NY. Right?

[ursulahx]

Politico can't resist one more bit of clickbait nonsense:

https://t.co/z9rrdoBTih

tl;dr - Brexit, therefore Trump! (Give me strength...)

[BoAtlantis]

Online polls in particular showed "Leave" was the favorite. People who thought Brexit was a clear favorite were only the pundits and betting market.

Also, the difference between Brexit and General Election is that one is a referendum and has many more swing voters that vote based on mood.

Conservatives outperform on referendum or propositions for whatever reasons. Brexit is closer to Prop 8 than it is to General Elections.

[ursulahx]

Online polls in particular showed "Leave" was the favorite. People who thought Brexit was a clear favorite were only the pundits and betting market.

Also, the difference between Brexit and General Election is that one is a referendum and has many more swing voters that vote based on mood.

Conservatives outperform on referendum or propositions for whatever reasons. Brexit is closer to Prop 8 than it is to General Elections.

Also different composition of electorate, fact that the UK consists of four states (so to speak) rather than fifty, we weren't voting for a personality, long history of difficult relationship with EU, class issues which even outweigh those in the States, polling in this country isn't as good, etc, etc, etc, there are just so many differences that the analogy doesn't start to stand up.

[BoAtlantis]

Online polls in particular showed "Leave" was the favorite. People who thought Brexit was a clear favorite were only the pundits and betting market.

Also, the difference between Brexit and General Election is that one is a referendum and has many more swing voters that vote based on mood.

Conservatives outperform on referendum or propositions for whatever reasons. Brexit is closer to Prop 8 than it is to General Elections.

Also different composition of electorate, fact that the UK consists of four states (so to speak) rather than fifty, we weren't voting for a personality, long history of difficult relationship with EU, class issues which even outweigh those in the States, polling in this country isn't as good, etc, etc, etc, there are just so many differences that the analogy doesn't start to stand up.

Nate Silver also badly missed on Conservatives and Labour seats.

I don't know UK at all but it appears that UK is a harder place to poll or their data breakdown needs to improve.