GWU Battleground Poll (National): Clinton +8
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Author Topic: GWU Battleground Poll (National): Clinton +8  (Read 1495 times)
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« on: October 16, 2016, 11:11:08 PM »
« edited: October 16, 2016, 11:16:57 PM by darthpi »
October 8-13, 1000 LV

Clinton 47% (+5)
Trump 39% (-1)
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

Johnson and Stein collectively declined 3% from the prior poll

Link: https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/new-gw-battleground-poll-clinton-begins-pull-away-trump-and-voters-think-she%E2%80%99ll-win
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 11:12:04 PM »
about where the race is at
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 11:12:53 PM »
Freedom swing
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2016, 11:18:40 PM »
this thing is only called battleground....or is it another one of those only asking swing states?

any way, according to 538 it even has got a republican bias of 1 point. Wink
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2016, 11:18:53 PM »
Various interesting numbers from their work:

Favs:
Clinton  45/53 (-8)
Trump  36/61 (-25)

Clinton leads on every question regarding ability to address important issues.
Clinton won temperament to serve 60/28.
Obama approval rating is 53/44 (+9)
Generic ballot is 47D/42R (D+5)
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2016, 11:20:37 PM »
Quote from: ApatheticAustrian on October 16, 2016, 11:18:40 PM
this thing is only called battleground....or is it another one of those only asking swing states?

any way, according to 538 it even has got a republican bias of 1 point. Wink

It is a national poll, according to the description.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2016, 11:22:56 PM »
Looks like Hillary's solidifying her stake at 47-48% in the four-way race. Nice!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2016, 11:25:46 PM »
Quote from: heatcharger on October 16, 2016, 11:22:56 PM
Looks like Hillary's solidifying her stake at 47-48% in the four-way race. Nice!

But she's under 50! She's clearly going to lose!!!!
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2016, 11:26:21 PM »
wouldn't be possible without daily hard work of high-level surrogate and big donor donald trump.
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OneJ
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2016, 11:35:42 PM »
Cross Tabs: https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sites/mediarelations.gwu.edu/files/GWBattlegroundPoll60-crosstabs.pdf
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2016, 11:40:09 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2016, 11:49:55 PM by psychprofessor »
White: 47/38 Trump
Black: 87/4 Clinton
Hispanic: 59/26 Clinton (Clinton's number will be higher - not sure if they had Spanish speakers)
Other: 52/29 Clinton
 
Men: 44/39 Trump
Women: 54/36 Clinton

White college grads: 45/40 Clinton
Non white college grads: 70/22 Clinton
White non college: 57/29 Trump
Non white non college: 72/11 Clinton
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2016, 11:50:51 PM »
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BOTH SIDES!!!
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2016, 11:57:58 PM »
Beautiful.  Another high-quality national poll showing that the national margin is Obama '08-ish.  This poll is 75% white too, so if anything, it's being quite conservative on what the 2016 electorate will look like.

The crosstabs of this poll are very extensive; some interesting stuff for poll nerds.  For example, Trump is only winning Texans they polled 46-44% (of course that's with a sample size of 74, so it's not really useful as an actual poll of Texas).

D+6 on the generic ballot.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2016, 11:58:02 PM »
contrary to us panicked board-users, people like nate cohn, harry/nate, sean trende and some other number-crunchers make fun of trump's chances since days.

this falls perfectly into line - and like nate explained...it isn't even a democratic-leaning poll.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2016, 12:00:27 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 16, 2016, 11:50:51 PM
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BOTH SIDES!!!

Seriously, how is a 45-53 favorable spread *deeply* unpopular?
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2016, 12:13:59 AM »

Fascinating... just skimming for third party support and noticed this:

Likelyhood of Voting in Upcoming Election:

Candidate — extremely+very (extremely,very)

Trump — 95% (77,18)
Clinton — 95% (71,24)
Johnson — 89% (75,14)
Stein — 68% (58,10)
Undecided — 60% (47,13)

Of course, the smaller the sample, the more difficult it is to gauge. That being said, It's interesting how much enthusiasm Johnson gets and how little Stein has.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2016, 12:15:55 AM »
Also, Trump voters have a -82% favorability raiting of Obama (8-90).
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 12:16:54 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 12:20:56 AM by Ronnie »
Hillary just has one more hurdle to clear: making it through the third debate alive.  If she holds her ground in it, I don't think there's anything that could stop her until election day.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2016, 12:20:58 AM »
most important:

after the third debate trumop loses his megaphone.

may he stay in twitter-verse, spitting hate and fear.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2016, 02:30:54 AM »
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dspNY
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2016, 04:29:21 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 04:46:16 AM by dspNY »
This poll traditionally has a Republican lean in past elections so a Clinton +8 is a fantastic result. We are seeing more polls with Clinton in the upper 40s in a 4-way race and approvals in the mid-40s, getting closer to parity
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Rand
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2016, 05:20:48 AM »
Seeing Gropey McClownface in the high 30's in so many of these polls is a sight for sore eyes.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2016, 05:22:17 AM »
Trump's numbers with whites have just not been good at all.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2016, 06:27:52 AM »

Great poll!
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2016, 07:06:23 AM »
Aw wow!  An absolutely SPPPPPPPPLENDID! start to my Monday! 

Mr. Trump is probably feelin' mighty blue.
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