How big would a "Hillaryslide" be?
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Author Topic: How big would a "Hillaryslide" be?  (Read 619 times)
Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« on: October 17, 2016, 11:03:05 AM »
« edited: October 17, 2016, 11:04:55 AM by Spooky Mike »


Clinton 405
Trump 133
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 11:06:43 AM »
Add MT, ID, ND, SD, SC
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 11:19:24 AM »
Add TX and SC and I think you're at her absolute ceiling.
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reidmill
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 11:28:33 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 17, 2016, 11:19:24 AM
Add TX and SC and I think you're at her absolute ceiling.

I second this.

Her winning Utah would only be due to McMuffin's spoiler effect.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 11:45:30 AM »
she doesn't need to win utah...trump does.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 11:51:10 AM »
Quote from: ApatheticAustrian on October 17, 2016, 11:45:30 AM
she doesn't need to win utah...trump does.

That's true, but the utility for Clinton of a McMullin win is very low.  The only way it would make any difference would be to change something like a 270-268 Trump win to a 268-264-6 election that goes to the House, where the outcome would be messy unclear.  The chances are very low that Trump would fail to win Utah if he were doing that well nationally, even with a strong McMullin showing in the state.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 12:00:01 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 17, 2016, 11:51:10 AM
Quote from: ApatheticAustrian on October 17, 2016, 11:45:30 AM
she doesn't need to win utah...trump does.

That's true, but the utility for Clinton of a McMullin win is very low.  The only way it would make any difference would be to change something like a 270-268 Trump win to a 268-264-6 election that goes to the House, where the outcome would be messy unclear.  The chances are very low that Trump would fail to win Utah if he were doing that well nationally, even with a strong McMullin showing in the state.

Fair point, but while the ulility of a McMuffinw in for Clinton is low, Tim Kaine would love that outcome
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 12:36:58 PM »
I really don't get this notion about SC being potentially competitive.  She would have to swing an obscene number of Southern whites to make it at all close.  It's inelastic- like a more Republican version of Georgia.  Likewise, she will win Arizona far before Georgia.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 12:45:38 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on October 17, 2016, 12:36:58 PM
I really don't get this notion about SC being potentially competitive.  She would have to swing an obscene number of Southern whites to make it at all close.  It's inelastic- like a more Republican version of Georgia.  Likewise, she will win Arizona far before Georgia.

I agree with both points in this, and don't think Clinton winning SC is particularly likely.  But if there really were a landslide on the order of C+10 in the PV, then her winning SC would become plausible (as opposed to states like WV, where nothing short of divine intervention could cause a Clinton victory).

I'd place the Romney states most likely to go to Clinton in tiers:

Tier 0: NC (already in her camp IMO)
Tier 1: AZ, NE-02
Tier 2: GA
Tier 3: MO, UT (only because of McMullin)
Tier 4: SC, TX, IN, AK
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