Monmouth National: Clinton +12 (LV) / 9 (RV)

[Edu]

Beautiful!


Today has been a pretty rough polling day for republicans, the unskewing should be hilarious.

[ApatheticAustrian]

like i said...the number crunchers have begun dissing trump since a week or two, pointing out his weaknesses, hidden behind the toplines.

[Ebsy]

awwwww shucky duck!

[john cage bubblegum]

longtime republican consultant and known fraud nate silver is trolling:

Pay attention to dates too, though. Monmouth poll was conducted this weekend. CNN state polls were mostly last week.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/788063981277708288?lang=de

?

What's wrong with what Nate is pointing out?  A poll taken this weekend will have better captured the effect of the assault allegations.

[BoAtlantis]

Monmouth seems to be extremist poll.

It shows either Trump or Hillary in YUGE lead.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

So if this is the result on Election Day, which Romney states should she win?

NC, AZ, GA, possibly AK, and an outside shot at Utah depending on how the vote splits.

[ApatheticAustrian]

What's wrong with what Nate is pointing out?  A poll taken this weekend will have better captured the effect of the assault allegations.

nothing at all.

just twisting the knife inside the wound. (the fraud and bla stuff just is the correct title for nate on atlas i assumed )

[elcorazon]

So if this is the result on Election Day, which Romney states should she win?

NC, AZ, GA, possibly AK, and an outside shot at Utah depending on how the vote splits.

MO, SC, maybe IN, possibly MT or SD as well.

[StatesPoll]

https://t.co/Sm87xTOCR3

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MonMinus Poll

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So if this is the result on Election Day, which Romney states should she win?

Obama 2012+ AZ,GA,NC and maybe UT.

[mark_twain]

Holy mackerel.

Huge improvement over the last poll from 9/22 to 9/25, which was at Clinton +4.

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Silver says Monmouth has been the best performer since 2014. (Minus is better)

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Nate Silver says Monmouth has been the best performer since 2014. (Minus is better)

If that's the case! RIP Trump.

[F_S_USATN]

Potential 17M vote loss incoming..well within margin of fraud. If continued Clinton stall extends to Election Day Trump should be able to get it within Alf Landon's margin. Sad!

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 88%
Trump 5%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

GOP
Trump 79%
Clinton 9%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 41%
Trump 35%
Johnson 10%
Stein 5%

men: Clinton +1
women: Clinton +17
age 18-34: Clinton +25
age 35-54: Clinton +4
age 55+: Clinton +6
whites: Trump +6
non-whites: Clinton +48
high school or less: Trump +2
some college: Clinton +1
college grad: Clinton +21
income less than $50k: Clinton +15
income of $50-$100k: Clinton +5
income more than $100k: Clinton +10

So we have yet another poll in which those making over $100k are more for Clinton than those in the middle.  Is this a real thing, that’ll show up on election day too?  A consequence of the widening education gap?

[Maxwell]

Middle class voters have always been Cllinton's worse and Trump's base.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

longtime republican consultant and known fraud nate silver is trolling:

Pay attention to dates too, though. Monmouth poll was conducted this weekend. CNN state polls were mostly last week.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/788063981277708288?lang=de

Isn't that good news for Hillary?

It is, but that's not what Nate is doing.  He's trying to be a cute lil' sweaty dog and suggesting weekend polling is off.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

longtime republican consultant and known fraud nate silver is trolling:

Pay attention to dates too, though. Monmouth poll was conducted this weekend. CNN state polls were mostly last week.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/788063981277708288?lang=de

Isn't that good news for Hillary?

It is, but that's not what Nate is doing.  He's trying to be a cute lil' sweaty dog and suggesting weekend polling is off.

I thought he was suggesting that the race is shifting quickly due to the various Trump assault accusers coming forward.

[BoAtlantis]

Dems
Clinton 88%
Trump 5%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

GOP
Trump 79%
Clinton 9%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 41%
Trump 35%
Johnson 10%
Stein 5%

men: Clinton +1
women: Clinton +17
age 18-34: Clinton +25
age 35-54: Clinton +4
age 55+: Clinton +6
whites: Trump +6
non-whites: Clinton +48
high school or less: Trump +2
some college: Clinton +1
college grad: Clinton +21
income less than $50k: Clinton +15
income of $50-$100k: Clinton +5
income more than $100k: Clinton +10

So we have yet another poll in which those making over $100k are more for Clinton than those in the middle.  Is this a real thing, that’ll show up on election day too?  A consequence of the widening education gap?

I'm not surprised by that. Affluent people live mostly in urban areas and we all know urban areas are heavily democratic.

Hillary essentially expanded her lead among wealthy voters and lost significant # of uneducated voters that are probably in the middle class.

[GeorgiaModerate]

longtime republican consultant and known fraud nate silver is trolling:

Pay attention to dates too, though. Monmouth poll was conducted this weekend. CNN state polls were mostly last week.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/788063981277708288?lang=de

Isn't that good news for Hillary?

It is, but that's not what Nate is doing.  He's trying to be a cute lil' sweaty dog and suggesting weekend polling is off.

I thought he was suggesting that the race is shifting quickly due to the various Trump assault accusers coming forward.

 I thought the same thing as darthpi did.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 88%
Trump 5%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

GOP
Trump 79%
Clinton 9%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 41%
Trump 35%
Johnson 10%
Stein 5%

men: Clinton +1
women: Clinton +17
age 18-34: Clinton +25
age 35-54: Clinton +4
age 55+: Clinton +6
whites: Trump +6
non-whites: Clinton +48
high school or less: Trump +2
some college: Clinton +1
college grad: Clinton +21
income less than $50k: Clinton +15
income of $50-$100k: Clinton +5
income more than $100k: Clinton +10

So we have yet another poll in which those making over $100k are more for Clinton than those in the middle.  Is this a real thing, that’ll show up on election day too?  A consequence of the widening education gap?

I'm not surprised by that. Affluent people live mostly in urban areas and we all know urban areas are heavily democratic.

But the geographic distribution of affluent people hasn't changed much in recent years, yet people making more than $100k a year voting as Democratic as the country at large is a very new thing.  I don't think it's ever happened before during the exit polling era that the Republican presidential nominee did better with the middle income group than he did with those making over $100k.  Though I believe in 2008, those groups were tied.  But this would (I think) be the first time that middle group is the most Republican.  I assume it's related to the giant education gap that's opened up.

[Alcon]

longtime republican consultant and known fraud nate silver is trolling:

Pay attention to dates too, though. Monmouth poll was conducted this weekend. CNN state polls were mostly last week.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/788063981277708288?lang=de

Isn't that good news for Hillary?

It is, but that's not what Nate is doing.  He's trying to be a cute lil' sweaty dog and suggesting weekend polling is off.

I thought he was suggesting that the race is shifting quickly due to the various Trump assault accusers coming forward.

 I thought the same thing as darthpi did.

Yeah, based on his Twitter feed, it's clear he's talking about the timeline in terms of the assault accusations.  No idea where people are reading into this that he thinks weekend polling is off.  The dude clearly loathes Trump and his model shows him with little chance besides "unknown unknown" events, so I don't know what he'd be sweating about?

But the geographic distribution of affluent people hasn't changed much in recent years, yet people making more than $100k a year voting as Democratic as the country at large is a very new thing.  I don't think it's ever happened before during the exit polling era that the Republican presidential nominee did better with the middle income group than he did with those making over $100k.  Though I believe in 2008, those groups were tied.  But this would (I think) be the first time that middle group is the most Republican.  I assume it's related to the giant education gap that's opened up.

As far as I know, you're 100% correct.  Obama's 2008 performance among the educated/affluent was basically the historical high-water mark, but Trump is such a bad candidate for that group, it looks like 2016 will clobber even that record.

This isn't just a gradual shift (2012 showed that's not inevitable).  This is a bit of a seismic shock.

[pbrower2a]

Landslide imminent.

[emailking]

longtime republican consultant and known fraud nate silver is trolling:

Pay attention to dates too, though. Monmouth poll was conducted this weekend. CNN state polls were mostly last week.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/788063981277708288?lang=de

Isn't that good news for Hillary?

It is, but that's not what Nate is doing.  He's trying to be a cute lil' sweaty dog and suggesting weekend polling is off.

I thought he was suggesting that the race is shifting quickly due to the various Trump assault accusers coming forward.

 I thought the same thing as darthpi did.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Landslide imminent.

Probably not a landslide, but something close to one is not impossible. I'm been concerned all along that undecideds are going to break towards Trump in the end, but he's giving them no reason to, especially with his insane behavior this week. I'm thinking most of them are going to decide he's too much of a risk.