Ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson is trying to build new party out of #NeverTrump
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  Ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson is trying to build new party out of #NeverTrump
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Author Topic: Ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson is trying to build new party out of #NeverTrump  (Read 2470 times)
ApatheticAustrian
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« on: October 17, 2016, 12:11:57 PM »




NeverTrump Strategist Laying Ground Work For New Conservative Party

http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/17/nevertrump-strategist-laying-ground-work-for-new-conservative-party/

The Republican Party, in his view, has “lost the ability to communicate with” certain demographic groups that are crucial “if you’re going to think about running a national party,” like “Hispanics, African Americans, women, college educated voters, mammals.”

“I mean, they’ve really done a number on the Republican coalition,” he went on. “You’re left now with high school educated white dudes who tend to be, you know, I’d say the median age right now is probably about 60. So you’ve basically got a narrow little coalition left.”

While he thinks the “Republican Party in the states, in the House” might be able to “putter on” for a little bit longer, he believes the GOP’s days are ultimately numbered.

“There will be a point where the inability to communicate and to articulate a message to these other groups that Trump has burned so badly for us, no amount of autopsy reports are going to suffice to fix it,” he said.

Asked whether there is a framework in place to start a new conservative party, Wilson answered, “yes,” though he didn’t elaborate on what other figures and fundraisers are involved in the project.

“We think there’s a place in this country for a strong, smart, center-right party that is unbound by some of the legacy code built into the GOP right now because you can’t go out and win national elections if you are a party that looks like, you know, Joe Arpaio and Donald Trump and Sean Hannity,” he said. “You’re not going to be a party that goes out and plays ball at the national level and gets more than one percent of the vote from African Americans.”
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 12:12:46 PM »

I think this party will probably be ideologically worse, but composed of better human beings.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 12:17:57 PM »

Keeping with the major party theme of naming themselves after the American form of Government, this new party should be called the Representative Party. It should be coloured White on maps, with undecided-toss up states being Grey.

Its symbol should be the Horse, with the party's best legislators getting the title of Work Horse. Alternatively, they could go with the Turkey. Their first goal should be to amend the Constitution to implement a voting system that isn't terrible to third parties.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 12:20:22 PM »

It would need to be a centrist party to actually lift off.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 12:27:09 PM »

Ultimately, it will fail.

Third parties fail because of the "winner-take-all" system in American elections.  In places like Israel, where there is proportional representation in the Knesset, there is motivation for a voter to choose a minor party; they can join governing coalitions, become influential committee chairpersons, etc, even with only a few members of the Knesset, if they can be pivotal in a governing coalition.    Here, though, the most a third party can do is influence the major party it's most like. 

The GOP itself needs to be honest with the fact that a large swath of its base is NOT "small government" folks.  They are folks who want government to do for working people the sorts of things that establish and maintain a middle class society.  The GOP was at its best when it was about this. 
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 12:32:05 PM »

Only way it could work is if there is something that sparks a mass exodus from the Republican Party, not just a slow trickle of defectors. If trump loses then the establishment can banish people who brought him upon us, and they will continue on as a big 2, for better or for worse. I think only if trump becomes president, then continues being an absolute disaster, and probably with the help of one pivotal controversy, would there be a mass exodus where these conservatives would need a place to go.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 12:39:06 PM »

Actually, my APUSH teacher agrees that historically it is time for a new party to arise and predicted this months ago.  Every few decades a new party is supposed to replace an old and I believe it may be time....
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 04:08:14 PM »

Actually, my APUSH teacher agrees that historically it is time for a new party to arise and predicted this months ago.  Every few decades a new party is supposed to replace an old and I believe it may be time....

Because that totally happened with the Democrats after 1860 and the Civil War, and the GOP was totally out with The New Deal....
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Cashew
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 04:15:50 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2016, 04:18:11 PM by Cashew »

I think this party will probably be ideologically worse, but composed of better human beings.
Indeed. The more "moderate" the republican the more likely they are to be an Iraq war apologist.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2016, 06:41:39 PM »

Actually, my APUSH teacher agrees that historically it is time for a new party to arise and predicted this months ago.  Every few decades a new party is supposed to replace an old and I believe it may be time....

"Every few decades?"  When's the last time a third party had any real shot going anywhere?  1912?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2016, 07:15:45 PM »

Yeah, not gonna happen.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2016, 07:51:34 PM »

Rick Wilson is finished as an actual consultant at this point anyway. He's got nothing to lose outside of his media career as the GOP's contrarian-in-chief. This project will end quickly and quietly by the end of 2017 when he fails to attract any mainstream support.

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FEMA Camp Administrator
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2016, 10:24:47 PM »

Rick Wilson is finished as an actual consultant at this point anyway. He's got nothing to lose outside of his media career as the GOP's contrarian-in-chief. This project will end quickly and quietly by the end of 2017 when he fails to attract any mainstream support.



'Member Americans-Elect?
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snowguy716
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2016, 10:50:15 PM »

Actually, my APUSH teacher agrees that historically it is time for a new party to arise and predicted this months ago.  Every few decades a new party is supposed to replace an old and I believe it may be time....

Because that totally happened with the Democrats after 1860 and the Civil War, and the GOP was totally out with The New Deal....
Things tend to go the same until they go differently. 
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2016, 12:39:13 AM »

Actually, my APUSH teacher agrees that historically it is time for a new party to arise and predicted this months ago.  Every few decades a new party is supposed to replace an old and I believe it may be time....

There is literally no historical evidence to support this.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2016, 08:18:52 AM »

Actually, my APUSH teacher agrees that historically it is time for a new party to arise and predicted this months ago.  Every few decades a new party is supposed to replace an old and I believe it may be time....

There is literally no historical evidence to support this.
Yeah... perhaps it is time for a new party system, but outright party turnover has only happened a handful of times (the founding of the Democrats, the rise of the Whigs, and their death).
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muon2
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2016, 08:38:39 AM »

The challenge to the formation of a third party is not running candidates for president and governor, it's running candidates for Congress and state legislatures. Those bodies have clear majority and minority parties, and a third party upsets that balance in single member FPTP districts.

If one of the two main parties splinters then the other main party will gain seats in districts where they can win with under 50%. That means a split in the majority party can put the minority party in charge and a split in the minority party can create supermajorities for the majority party. The split only becomes politically viable when it occurs in a supermajority area, or conversely does little harm to the splitting party in a superminority area.
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2016, 08:50:42 AM »

What is the party for fiscal hawks (you know, folks who don't want to screw future generations by maxing out government debt up to a point just short of economic implosion), who want effective and efficient governance, with a reasonable social safety net (even if that means the government will continue to take about the same share of the GDP as it does now), and a tolerance for diversity in this country?
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muon2
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 10:15:17 AM »

What is the party for fiscal hawks (you know, folks who don't want to screw future generations by maxing out government debt up to a point just short of economic implosion), who want effective and efficient governance, with a reasonable social safety net (even if that means the government will continue to take about the same share of the GDP as it does now), and a tolerance for diversity in this country?

In many states that party is the GOP. There have been many periods where one or the other of the national parties has been philosophically disconnected from a number of the state parties. In the 60's and 70's the national Dems were far apart from their southern states' parties. Dems in those states would ask where a socially conservative working class voter should go. In the last decade this has been a particular problem for the GOP. It is exacerbated by the dominance of national cable news over local media as the source of information for voters.

Thirty years ago the lines in IL were sharpest between Chicago and its suburbs with the rural and small cities areas downstate as swing districts. That reflected the holdover from the disconnection of Dems from rural working class voters in places like southern IL as they became a more urban-centric party. Today the lines are sharpest between Chicago and downstate with the suburbs as swing districts. This reflects the confusion for voters who are looking for economically responsible but socially supportive government.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 11:59:35 AM »

What is the party for fiscal hawks (you know, folks who don't want to screw future generations by maxing out government debt up to a point just short of economic implosion), who want effective and efficient governance, with a reasonable social safety net (even if that means the government will continue to take about the same share of the GDP as it does now), and a tolerance for diversity in this country?

Not the one you're in...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 01:08:50 PM »

I really think people are overestimating the chances that GOP primary voters are going to keep nominating Trump-like candidates.  It's very possible that the party goes back to nominating more "normal" candidates in 2020.  In which case, this effort to split off and form a non-Trump conservative party would be rather pointless.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 01:45:39 PM »

I really think people are overestimating the chances that GOP primary voters are going to keep nominating Trump-like candidates.  It's very possible that the party goes back to nominating more "normal" candidates in 2020.  In which case, this effort to split off and form a non-Trump conservative party would be rather pointless.

This.  These same folks nominated Romney.  The GOP primary electorate has barely changed since 2012, and the main way it did was a bunch of people who didn't normally vote showing up to vote SPECIFICALLY FOR TRUMP, and - as I have detailed before - their various reasons were hardly the making of a coherent (much less lasting) ideology.

"Trumpist" doesn't mean anything.
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Person Man
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2016, 02:16:33 PM »

I really think people are overestimating the chances that GOP primary voters are going to keep nominating Trump-like candidates.  It's very possible that the party goes back to nominating more "normal" candidates in 2020.  In which case, this effort to split off and form a non-Trump conservative party would be rather pointless.

This.  These same folks nominated Romney.  The GOP primary electorate has barely changed since 2012, and the main way it did was a bunch of people who didn't normally vote showing up to vote SPECIFICALLY FOR TRUMP, and - as I have detailed before - their various reasons were hardly the making of a coherent (much less lasting) ideology.

"Trumpist" doesn't mean anything.
Except for when it does. Just like everything else around here these days.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2016, 02:56:47 PM »

I really think people are overestimating the chances that GOP primary voters are going to keep nominating Trump-like candidates.  It's very possible that the party goes back to nominating more "normal" candidates in 2020.  In which case, this effort to split off and form a non-Trump conservative party would be rather pointless.

This.  These same folks nominated Romney.  The GOP primary electorate has barely changed since 2012, and the main way it did was a bunch of people who didn't normally vote showing up to vote SPECIFICALLY FOR TRUMP.

I don't know if I agree that that was the main reason.  Much of it I'd credit to 1) the fact that Trump got more media attention than all his rivals combined, and 2) the peculiarities of how Trump's opponents divided the vote.  Trump was winning with ~1/3rd of the vote in the early primaries, but if he'd faced a different set of opponents, then someone else might have gotten many of those plurality victories rather than him, and used it to build up the support needed to win the nomination over him.

It's not clear to me that a future "Trumpist" candidate will be as adept at generating media attention, or that they won't face a more formidable field of opponents.  Of course, it's also not clear to me that there will even be a Trumpist candidate in 2020.  It's not like other Republicans are falling all over themselves to run on Trumpist platforms, in those issue areas where Trump diverges from previously established party orthodoxy.  Now, some will try to coopt some of his message, perhaps in areas like trade.  But that won't necessarily be enough of a heresy from party orthodoxy that it'll scare off #NeverTrump Republicans in the way that Trump himself scared them off.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2016, 04:51:15 PM »

I think you misunderstand me: I'm simply stating that as one of the few (only?) differences between the 2012 and 2016 GOP electorate, and saying that because I believe a lot of those non-regular voters were turning out specifically for Donald J. Trump, they're not as likely to return.  I'm not saying that's why he won, and in fact my main point is that there were several reasons he won (a huge reason being media attention), none of which was this unanimous and enthusiastic endorsement of all of his policy positions by the GOP electorate.
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