Ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson is trying to build new party out of #NeverTrump (user search)
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  Ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson is trying to build new party out of #NeverTrump (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ex-GOP strategist Rick Wilson is trying to build new party out of #NeverTrump  (Read 2483 times)
muon2
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« on: October 18, 2016, 08:38:39 AM »

The challenge to the formation of a third party is not running candidates for president and governor, it's running candidates for Congress and state legislatures. Those bodies have clear majority and minority parties, and a third party upsets that balance in single member FPTP districts.

If one of the two main parties splinters then the other main party will gain seats in districts where they can win with under 50%. That means a split in the majority party can put the minority party in charge and a split in the minority party can create supermajorities for the majority party. The split only becomes politically viable when it occurs in a supermajority area, or conversely does little harm to the splitting party in a superminority area.
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 10:15:17 AM »

What is the party for fiscal hawks (you know, folks who don't want to screw future generations by maxing out government debt up to a point just short of economic implosion), who want effective and efficient governance, with a reasonable social safety net (even if that means the government will continue to take about the same share of the GDP as it does now), and a tolerance for diversity in this country?

In many states that party is the GOP. There have been many periods where one or the other of the national parties has been philosophically disconnected from a number of the state parties. In the 60's and 70's the national Dems were far apart from their southern states' parties. Dems in those states would ask where a socially conservative working class voter should go. In the last decade this has been a particular problem for the GOP. It is exacerbated by the dominance of national cable news over local media as the source of information for voters.

Thirty years ago the lines in IL were sharpest between Chicago and its suburbs with the rural and small cities areas downstate as swing districts. That reflected the holdover from the disconnection of Dems from rural working class voters in places like southern IL as they became a more urban-centric party. Today the lines are sharpest between Chicago and downstate with the suburbs as swing districts. This reflects the confusion for voters who are looking for economically responsible but socially supportive government.
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 08:25:20 AM »

What is the party for fiscal hawks (you know, folks who don't want to screw future generations by maxing out government debt up to a point just short of economic implosion), who want effective and efficient governance, with a reasonable social safety net (even if that means the government will continue to take about the same share of the GDP as it does now), and a tolerance for diversity in this country?

The (like me lol) party?

Exactly honey. You got it. Where is my niche these days?

Suburban Dems and Pubs don't seem so far apart and might be your niche. However, they get pulled by their respective cores in the city and rural areas. That leaves you with a balancing test as to who you want to boost more at the national and state levels.  They might even be different parties for those two levels based on the factional weights of the cores.

I saw the same lament from downstaters in IL in the 1990's. They had no niche back then in the partisan divide between the city and suburbs. Now they have a solid home and the suburbanites are caught in the middle.
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